MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ATL · batting 9Sean Murphy
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.326wOBA vs RHP.296xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · MIAEury Pérez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Eury Pérez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 29% usage, 98.3 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Sean Murphy: wOBA .339 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 29%Sinker: 26% usage, 97.7 mph, +15.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Sean Murphy: wOBA .343 vs league .341 (about even).Sinker 26%Slider: 19% usage, 89.0 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Sean Murphy: wOBA .316 vs league .313 (about even).Slider 19%Sweeper: 12% usage, 83.9 mph, -7.0″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Sean Murphy: wOBA .294 vs league .292 (about even).Sweeper 12%Changeup: 7% usage, 90.2 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. Sean Murphy: wOBA .341 vs league .339 (about even).Changeup 7%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.7 mph, -8.6″ arm side, -6.7″ rise. Sean Murphy: wOBA .292 vs league .290 (about even).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Sean Murphy's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Sean Murphy's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 70.1 mph at 18°Single: 108.3 mph at 8°Out: 106.0 mph at -4°Out: 98.6 mph at 26°Out: 98.6 mph at 40°Out: 76.8 mph at -31°Out: 93.5 mph at -6°Out: 103.5 mph at 1°Out: 102.3 mph at 2°Out: 81.1 mph at 50°Out: 82.6 mph at -12°Out: 105.7 mph at -1°Out: 78.7 mph at 62°Out: 94.1 mph at 50°Out: 78.6 mph at 0°Out: 53.0 mph at -12°Out: 87.1 mph at -19°Out: 84.6 mph at -44°Out: 73.2 mph at -32°Double: 105.0 mph at 25°Out: 101.3 mph at 24°Out: 62.5 mph at -1°Single: 100.8 mph at 1°Out: 82.8 mph at 72°Out: 61.7 mph at -42°Out: 105.0 mph at -4°Out: 100.0 mph at 50°Out: 88.5 mph at 11°Out: 74.9 mph at 4°Out: 86.6 mph at -33°Out: 103.9 mph at 0°Home run: 95.3 mph at 36°Single: 93.7 mph at 4°Out: 106.1 mph at 9°Single: 74.2 mph at 27°Home run: 103.2 mph at 27°Out: 90.6 mph at -18°Double: 101.7 mph at -1°Single: 107.4 mph at 16°Out: 103.9 mph at 36°
48% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit45.1%47.5%-2.4
2+ total bases24.2%26.5%-2.3
Home run9.6%11.6%-1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.8
Home run
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-1.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Sean Murphy hits
Sean Murphy · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .402 shrunk (raw .787 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 8 pitches seen.402xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .113 on 3 PA) · league .307 · 11 pitches seen.268xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .312 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 7 pitches seen.273xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .739 on 1 PA) · league .342 · 7 pitches seen.373xwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .363 on 6 PA) · league .386 · 18 pitches seen.378xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .506 on 8 PA) · league .321 · 16 pitches seen.395xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .176 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 13 pitches seen.264xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .372 on 5 PA) · league .351 · 25 pitches seen.357xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .231 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 18 pitches seen.277xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .361 on 10 PA) · league .377 · 40 pitches seen.370xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 11 pitches seen.285xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .183 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 35 pitches seen.234xwOBA .183 shrunk (raw .110 on 15 PA) · league .274 · 72 pitches seen.183
vs RHP · 281 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 11%8%Whiff 36% of 11 swings · league 14%36%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 13%14%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 28%12%Whiff 60% of 5 swings · league 24%60%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 32%22%Whiff 79% of 24 swings · league 49%79%
vs RHP · 281 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 88% of 8 pitches · league 62%88%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 72%64%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 66%57%Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 70%43%Swings at 72% of 18 pitches · league 76%72%Swings at 81% of 16 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 85% of 13 pitches · league 65%85%Swings at 56% of 25 pitches · league 68%56%Swings at 50% of 18 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 43% of 40 pitches · league 24%43%Swings at 46% of 11 pitches · league 34%46%Swings at 26% of 35 pitches · league 40%26%Swings at 33% of 72 pitches · league 32%33%
vs RHP · 281 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Sean Murphy against each of Eury Pérez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball29%98.3+12″ / +18″.339.33718.9%19.7%15About league average vs these
Sinker26%97.7+16″ / +14″.343.34112.4%13.0%21About league average vs these
Slider19%89.0+0″ / +5″.316.31338.2%27.8%11About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper12%83.9-7″ / +11″.294.29243.5%32.5%4Little history vs this shape
Changeup7%90.2+14″ / +10″.341.33920.3%18.6%8About league average vs these
Curveball7%80.7-9″ / -7″.292.29039.1%28.7%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Sean Murphy · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.143.455.143.336.5639.1%36.4%19.0%98.1108.316.7%83.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1441.143.268.257.291.35217.1%14.6%23.4%90.5108.310.7%50.0%25.0%
Last 30 G2774.212.297.364.331.30427.0%10.8%27.2%89.4108.38.7%45.7%34.8%
90 days2774.212.297.364.331.30427.0%10.8%27.2%89.4108.38.7%45.7%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 46 balls in play
Ground 61%Line drive 13%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.000.000.000.05550.0%0.0%45.5%89.698.60.0%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G815.000.133.000.093.12846.7%13.3%46.7%85.398.60.0%16.7%0.0%
Last 30 G1729.115.207.231.203.25434.5%10.3%35.0%84.9105.812.5%31.2%12.5%
90 days1729.115.207.231.203.25434.5%10.3%35.0%84.9105.812.5%31.2%12.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 16 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 6%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.077.294.077.218.38323.5%23.5%28.1%95.3108.311.1%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1556.104.232.188.238.29225.0%14.3%29.9%89.5108.38.8%44.1%20.6%
Last 30 G28103.185.272.326.295.29029.1%10.7%29.6%88.2108.39.7%41.9%29.0%
90 days28103.185.272.326.295.29029.1%10.7%29.6%88.2108.39.7%41.9%29.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 11%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 7%
Sean Murphy · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating45Average
Last 100 pitches13trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.296 / .311results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball99.570.118.653Out
Sep 25RHPFastball96.3108.38.661Single
Sep 25RHPSinker97.2106.0-4.322Out
Sep 24RHPSinker90.398.626.788Out
Sep 24LHPFastball95.598.640.151Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.076.8-31.025Out
Sep 22LHPCutter90.693.5-6.154Out
Sep 19RHPSinker91.3103.51.456Out
Sep 19RHPFastball94.5102.32.515Out
Sep 18RHPSinker94.081.150.052Out
Sep 18RHPSinker94.282.6-12.063Error
Sep 18RHPFastball96.7105.7-1.420Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25311000
Sep 24400020
Sep 23300002
Sep 22300002
Sep 19400020
Sep 18400000
Sep 16400001
Sep 14400002
Sep 12412011
Sep 11411001

Two strikes

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Eury Pérez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball29%36%20.0%19.3%18.0%
Sinker26%19%13.6%13.3%17.0%
Slider19%16%34.3%21.4%21.1%
Sweeper12%14%50.0%22.6%19.3%
Changeup7%10%40.7%25.0%18.6%
Curveball7%5%27.8%29.2%20.0%
Other0%1%–0.0%21.7%
Sean Murphy bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Sean Murphy with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.8%42.4%
Whiff%25.3%22.2%
Contact%74.7%77.8%
Chase%42.2%39.9%
wOBA.221.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.5%20.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.310
K%29.1%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%12.3%
Barrel%6.4%
Hard-hit%24.4%
Avg EV88.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

71 PA
wOBA.326
xwOBA vs this mix.296against pitches like his
RV/100-0.24
Hard-hit%26.4%
K%27.4%
BB%10.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Eury PérezRHP · MIA vs ATL
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.7 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.7%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.3%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.7%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.2%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.4%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.8%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff111
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball29%14598.211.6%
Sinker26%10097.76.6%
Slider19%9888.921.8%
Sweeper12%11183.921.9%
Changeup7%6390.118.8%
Curveball6%9180.78.8%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199715%10%31%.469
Sep 139624%9%24%.340
Sep 79220%12%28%.522

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Sean Murphy: every projection we've made →