MLBengine v14
← BAL at NYY, Sep 25, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · NYY · batting 6Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.323wOBA vs RHP.302xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · BALBrandon Young
Throws rightBTB Stuff 96Trending Up
5.6projected K21%K%2.6trips vs this hitter
Brandon Young's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.0″ arm side, +17.5″ rise. Jazz Chisholm Jr.: wOBA .350 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 41%Splitter: 18% usage, 83.9 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +1.2″ rise. Jazz Chisholm Jr.: wOBA .283 vs league .286 (about even).Splitter 18%Slider: 16% usage, 85.2 mph, -2.2″ arm side, +4.1″ rise. Jazz Chisholm Jr.: wOBA .349 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 16%Sinker: 14% usage, 94.2 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.9″ rise. Jazz Chisholm Jr.: wOBA .350 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 14%Curveball: 12% usage, 75.5 mph, -13.3″ arm side, -15.2″ rise. Jazz Chisholm Jr.: wOBA .325 vs league .328 (about even).Curveball 12%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.1%56.9%+2.2
2+ total bases36.8%33.6%+3.2
Home run17.0%13.4%+3.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.7
Home run
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+2.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jazz Chisholm Jr. against each of Brandon Young's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%94.6+6″ / +18″.350.35317.5%16.4%45About league average vs these
Splitter18%83.9+8″ / +1″.283.28631.5%27.1%13About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider16%85.2-2″ / +4″.349.35228.4%24.7%13About league average vs these
Sinker14%94.2+15″ / +11″.350.35216.8%15.3%41About league average vs these
Curveball12%75.5-13″ / -15″.325.32829.8%26.1%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating41Below average
Last 100 pitches64trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.319 / .308results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Brandon Young BAL · RHPwith two strikes
Brandon Young with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball41%43%14.6%12.0%18.0%
Splitter18%22%39.6%19.4%19.0%
Slider16%21%37.0%25.8%21.1%
Sinker14%8%4.3%11.8%17.0%
Curveball12%7%50.0%25.0%20.0%
Jazz Chisholm Jr. bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jazz Chisholm Jr. with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.0%41.0%
Whiff%25.4%21.3%
Contact%74.6%78.7%
Chase%40.0%39.6%
wOBA.253.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.8%20.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.334
K%30.6%
BB%10.4%
Whiff%12.2%
Barrel%5.7%
Hard-hit%27.3%
Avg EV88.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

162 PA
wOBA.323
xwOBA vs this mix.302against pitches like his
RV/100-0.05
Hard-hit%30.0%
K%28.7%
BB%10.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon YoungRHP · BAL vs NYY
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.9 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.1%19%≤34 strikeouts: 15.0%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.7%13%78 strikeouts: 8.9%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.7%12%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.4%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%11.9%
Velo88.9
BTB Stuff96
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%10494.510.0%
Splitter18%9983.818.9%
Slider16%8685.219.4%
Sinker14%8194.13.1%
Curveball12%9275.48.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208441%17%18%.281
Sep 1410625%10%25%.379
Sep 8869%8%18%.555

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Young BAL · RHPvsNYY lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameBAL @ NYY →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jazz Chisholm Jr.: every projection we've made →