BAL at NYY, Sep 25, 2026

The game

BAL runs4.4win 46%

NYY runs4.9win 54%

Total9.3no pre-game book line

No run, 1st inning45%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: +0.8% vs neutral air
Weather: – · Wind unknown
Park factor: Runs 101 · HR 114 100 = average
Umpire: Nic Lentz
Schedule: BAL 2d rest; BAL traveled in; NYY day-after-night

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

BAL starter

Brandon YoungRHP · BAL vs NYY

5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.9 batters over 5.7 innings

Over 5.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%21.4%

BB%9.0%

Whiff%11.9%

Velo88.9

BTB Stuff96

Location106

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball41%10494.510.0%

Splitter18%9983.818.9%

Slider16%8685.219.4%

Sinker14%8194.13.1%

Curveball12%9275.48.5%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	84	41%	17%	18%	.281
Sep 14	106	25%	10%	25%	.379
Sep 8	86	9%	8%	18%	.555

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Young BAL · RHPvsNYY lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Ben Rice23%

2Cody Bellinger22%

3Heliot Ramos29%

4Luis García Jr.21%

5Spencer Jones35%

6Jazz Chisholm Jr.29%

7Anthony Volpe25%

8Austin Wells24%

9Ryan McMahon27%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

NYY starter

Ryan YarbroughLHP · NYY vs BAL

2.1projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 9.9 batters over 2.3 innings

Over 2.5: 35% (red bars) · under: 65%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%16.1%

BB%7.3%

Whiff%9.7%

Velo81.1

BTB Stuff80

Location103

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Cutter32%5784.912.1%

Changeup22%7577.56.8%

Sweeper19%13071.816.4%

Fastball14%7487.32.4%

Sinker13%7887.40.0%

Other0%–0.00.0%

Last 2 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Aug 29	60	13%	10%	27%	.357
Jul 26	51	13%	6%	6%	.491

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ryan Yarbrough NYY · LHPvsBAL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

6 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Dylan Beavers27%

2Pete Alonso24%

3Coby Mayo27%

4Jeremiah Jackson27%

5Leody Taveras33%

6Rece Hinds28%

7Christian Franklin25%

8Yohel Pozo21%

9José Barrero26%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Ryan Yarbrough NYY · LHPvsBAL lineuppitch-mix battle

Ryan Yarbrough's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Ryan Yarbrough's pitches					BAL lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Cutter	32%	84.9	57	12.1%	1.62	.273	14.1%	28.5%	-1.78
Changeup	22%	77.5	75	6.8%	-4.67	.308	15.5%	27.0%	+0.85
Sweeper	19%	71.8	130	16.4%	-0.75	.294	14.3%	15.2%	-0.08
Fastball	14%	87.3	74	2.4%	-6.38	.378	8.7%	36.9%	+1.41
Sinker	13%	87.4	78	0.0%	3.91	.299	6.3%	25.0%	-0.72

Brandon Young BAL · RHPvsNYY lineuppitch-mix battle

Brandon Young's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Brandon Young's pitches					NYY lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	41%	94.5	104	10.0%	0.01	.311	10.5%	31.9%	-0.39
Splitter	18%	83.8	99	18.9%	-2.13	.156	18.3%	19.4%	-1.61
Slider	16%	85.2	86	19.4%	0.57	.253	15.6%	22.9%	-0.93
Sinker	14%	94.1	81	3.1%	-0.48	.369	6.8%	30.8%	+0.55
Curveball	12%	75.4	92	8.5%	-3.08	.329	12.8%	28.7%	+0.63

Bullpens

Orioles bullpen#7 of 30

K%24.3%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%14.9%

SwStr%11.3%

wOBA allowed.297

Arms available18 / 18

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Yankees bullpen#23 of 30

K%19.3%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%10.6%

SwStr%10.9%

wOBA allowed.327

Arms available16 / 17

Pitched yesterday: Schlittler, Gil, Hanner, Fulmer, Hill (Back-to-Back).

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Brandon Young BAL · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+2 pts

Splitter+4 pts

Slider+5 pts

Sinker-6 pts

Curveball-5 pts

Brandon Young with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	41%	43%	14.6%	12.0%	18.0%
Splitter	18%	22%	39.6%	19.4%	19.0%
Slider	16%	21%	37.0%	25.8%	21.1%
Sinker	14%	8%	4.3%	11.8%	17.0%
Curveball	12%	7%	50.0%	25.0%	20.0%

Ryan Yarbrough NYY · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Sweeper+6 pts

Changeup+3 pts

Cutter-4 pts

Fastball+2 pts

Sinker-8 pts

Other+0 pts

Ryan Yarbrough with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Sweeper	21%	27%	22.2%	20.5%	20.5%
Changeup	22%	25%	9.1%	14.6%	18.3%
Cutter	27%	23%	7.1%	5.4%	17.9%
Fastball	15%	17%	6.2%	3.7%	18.6%
Sinker	15%	7%	0.0%	16.7%	17.7%
Other	0%	1%	–	0.0%	14.3%

Orioles lineup

Confirmed · facing Ryan Yarbrough LHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Dylan Beavers DH · bats L	59.2%	35.4%	11.5%	4.0	+1.5	.278	D	Balanced	Normal
2	Pete Alonso 1B · bats R	71.2%	53.2%	27.1%	3.9	+2.1	.372	A	Power	Cold
3	Coby Mayo 3B · bats R	65.0%	46.2%	23.5%	3.8	+2.3	.426	A	Power	Hot
4	Jeremiah Jackson 2B · bats R	55.6%	35.6%	13.3%	3.8	+1.3	.286	Avg	Balanced	Normal
5	Leody Taveras CF · bats S	52.5%	29.7%	8.9%	3.7	+0.6	.229	F	Balanced	Cold
6	Rece Hinds RF · bats R	55.0%	31.6%	11.2%	3.6	+1.5	.294	D	Balanced	Hot
7	Christian Franklin LF · bats R	53.2%	31.2%	11.1%	3.5	+1.2	.297	D	Balanced	Normal
8	Yohel Pozo C · bats R	59.8%	33.7%	9.2%	3.4	+0.9	.325	D	Balanced	Normal
9	José Barrero SS · bats R	51.9%	29.4%	10.2%	3.3	+0.8	.304	F	Balanced	Normal

Yankees lineup

Confirmed · facing Brandon Young RHP