Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Spencer Jones's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 57.2% | 56.8% | +0.4 |
| 2+ total bases | 34.4% | 34.5% | -0.1 |
| Home run | 13.3% | 14.5% | -1.2 |
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Pitch by pitch
Spencer Jones against each of Trevor Rogers's pitches| His pitch | Usage | Velo | Movement | His wOBA | League | His whiff% | League | Sample | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 50% | 94.2 | +11″ / +15″ | .361 | .337 | 18.8% | 15.7% | 11 | About league average vs these |
| Changeup | 19% | 86.8 | +14″ / +1″ | .333 | .309 | 29.9% | 28.2% | 4 | Little history vs this shape |
| Sweeper | 17% | 78.1 | -11″ / +4″ | .317 | .293 | 27.9% | 26.7% | 6 | Little history vs this shape |
| Sinker | 9% | 93.6 | +17″ / +7″ | .347 | .322 | 13.2% | 11.1% | 9 | About league average vs these |
| Cutter | 6% | 83.9 | -4″ / +4″ | .339 | .315 | 33.4% | 28.9% | 11 | About league average vs these; misses them more than most |
Statcast
opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonightNo pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Two strikes
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 50% | 45% | 20.9% | 23.6% | 18.6% |
| Sweeper | 17% | 24% | 31.4% | 25.7% | 20.5% |
| Changeup | 19% | 16% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 18.3% |
| Sinker | 9% | 10% | 18.2% | 22.2% | 17.7% |
| Cutter | 6% | 4% | 30.0% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| With two strikes | Him | League |
|---|---|---|
| K% | 48.7% | 44.1% |
| Whiff% | 23.5% | 22.7% |
| Contact% | 76.5% | 77.3% |
| Chase% | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| wOBA | .223 | .224 |
| Whiff vs his put-away shapes | 20.3% | 19.6% |
The hitter
season-level talent readAgainst left-handers, last 90 days
44 PATalent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | 99 | 37% | 16% | 22% | .152 |
| Sep 13 | 95 | 19% | 15% | 12% | .423 |
| Sep 7 | 104 | 23% | 14% | 15% | .221 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.