MLBengine v14
← CHC at BOS, Sep 25, 2026
4:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CHC · batting 1Pete Crow-Armstrong
Bats leftTalent grade APowerHot
.431wOBA vs RHP.403xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · BOSBrayan Bello
Throws rightBTB Stuff 93Trending Up
4.2projected K22%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Brayan Bello's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 34% usage, 96.0 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Pete Crow-Armstrong: wOBA .387 vs league .345 (hitter's edge).Sinker 34%Changeup: 24% usage, 89.6 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Pete Crow-Armstrong: wOBA .343 vs league .301 (hitter's edge).Changeup 24%Sweeper: 16% usage, 86.4 mph, -9.7″ arm side, -3.4″ rise. Pete Crow-Armstrong: wOBA .353 vs league .312 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 16%Cutter: 13% usage, 88.0 mph, 0.0″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Pete Crow-Armstrong: wOBA .383 vs league .341 (hitter's edge).Cutter 13%Fastball: 13% usage, 96.5 mph, +6.0″ arm side, +12.2″ rise. Pete Crow-Armstrong: wOBA .404 vs league .361 (hitter's edge).Fastball 13%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Pete Crow-Armstrong's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.6%64.8%+0.7
2+ total bases43.7%44.5%-0.8
Home run18.2%21.3%-3.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
+1.6
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+1.7
Bullpen
-0.7
Park
-0.9
Home run
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
+1.1
Bullpen
-0.9
Park
-1.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Pete Crow-Armstrong against each of Brayan Bello's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker34%96.0+16″ / +6″.387.34518.2%13.6%36Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Changeup24%89.6+16″ / +6″.343.30124.3%26.1%36Hits these better than most
Sweeper16%86.4-10″ / -3″.353.31225.1%26.3%34Hits these better than most
Cutter13%88.00″ / +2″.383.34133.8%26.6%39Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Fastball13%96.5+6″ / +12″.404.36119.6%14.7%60Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormHot
Contact rating96Top tier
Last 100 pitches98steady
wOBA / xwOBA.425 / .389running 37 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Brayan Bello BOS · RHPwith two strikes
Brayan Bello with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup24%29%19.6%12.0%18.6%
Sinker34%26%5.9%20.0%17.0%
Sweeper16%22%35.7%21.8%19.3%
Fastball13%18%16.7%17.4%18.0%
Cutter13%6%40.0%28.6%17.9%
Pete Crow-Armstrong bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Pete Crow-Armstrong with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.0%41.0%
Whiff%22.7%21.3%
Contact%77.3%78.7%
Chase%39.6%39.6%
wOBA.289.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.2%19.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.403
K%25.4%
BB%12.4%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%8.6%
Hard-hit%27.2%
Avg EV89.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

251 PA
wOBA.431
xwOBA vs this mix.403against pitches like his
RV/1002.45
Hard-hit%27.9%
K%24.6%
BB%13.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brayan BelloRHP · BOS vs CHC
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.7%40%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.4%11%67 strikeouts: 6.8%7%78 strikeouts: 3.6%4%89+ strikeouts: 2.9%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.3%
BB%5.3%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo92.0
BTB Stuff93
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker36%10396.03.7%
Changeup23%8389.511.5%
Sweeper15%9286.316.5%
Cutter13%10288.018.9%
Fastball13%7596.47.8%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199338%12%14%.224
Sep 710332%11%18%.259
Sep 2690%7%29%.515

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brayan Bello BOS · RHPvsCHC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCHC @ BOS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Pete Crow-Armstrong: every projection we've made →