MLBengine v14
← Sep 25, 2026 slate

Cubs at Red Sox

4:35 PM CT · Final · Fenway Park · Weather data unavailable.

The game

CHC runs4.4win 58%
BOS runs3.6win 42%
Total8.0no pre-game book line
No run, 1st inning55%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air
Carry
+0.2% vs neutral air
Weather
– · Wind unknown
Park factor
Runs 106 · HR 89 100 = average
Umpire
D.J. Reyburn
Schedule
CHC traveled in; BOS day-after-night

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

CHC starter
David PetersonLHP · CHC vs BOS
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.7%26%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.8%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.8%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.4%7%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.9%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%9.7%
Velo89.2
BTB Stuff96
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker31%8892.26.5%
Fastball26%10092.810.7%
Slider20%9986.513.8%
Changeup15%10285.59.4%
Curveball9%9279.87.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208332%12%23%.205
Sep 148530%14%17%.209
Sep 88320%7%15%.392

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

David Peterson CHC · LHPvsBOS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

BOS starter
Brayan BelloRHP · BOS vs CHC
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.7%40%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.4%11%67 strikeouts: 6.8%7%78 strikeouts: 3.6%4%89+ strikeouts: 2.9%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.3%
BB%5.3%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo92.0
BTB Stuff93
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker36%10396.03.7%
Changeup23%8389.511.5%
Sweeper15%9286.316.5%
Cutter13%10288.018.9%
Fastball13%7596.47.8%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199338%12%14%.224
Sep 710332%11%18%.259
Sep 2690%7%29%.515

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brayan Bello BOS · RHPvsCHC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces
Brayan Bello BOS · RHPvsCHC lineuppitch-mix battle
Brayan Bello's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
Brayan Bello's pitchesCHC lineup vs that pitch
PitchUsageVeloBTB StuffWhiff%RV/100wOBAWhiff%Hard-hit%Edge
Sinker36%96.01033.7%1.57.3533.4%30.0%+0.63
Changeup23%89.58311.5%2.12.32315.4%23.9%-0.46
Sweeper15%86.39216.5%1.88.30810.3%17.5%-0.25
Fastball13%96.4757.8%0.30.3617.7%25.8%+0.38
Cutter13%88.010218.9%1.07.3689.1%25.5%+0.19
David Peterson CHC · LHPvsBOS lineuppitch-mix battle
David Peterson's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
David Peterson's pitchesBOS lineup vs that pitch
PitchUsageVeloBTB StuffWhiff%RV/100wOBAWhiff%Hard-hit%Edge
Sinker31%92.2886.5%0.93.3994.6%27.6%+1.40
Fastball26%92.810010.7%-0.30.3319.3%24.9%+0.25
Slider20%86.59913.8%0.91.32416.1%13.6%-0.32
Changeup15%85.51029.4%-1.84.28114.0%20.0%-0.04
Curveball9%79.8927.6%-2.61.24013.3%21.0%-0.18

Bullpens

Cubs bullpen#24 of 30
K%21.0%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%11.5%
SwStr%9.2%
wOBA allowed.340
Arms available15 / 15

Pitched yesterday: Boyd, Palencia, Zeferjahn.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Red Sox bullpen#11 of 30
K%26.2%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%15.8%
SwStr%12.5%
wOBA allowed.331
Arms available16 / 16

Pitched yesterday: Suarez, Burgos, Sandoval, Miller.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters
David Peterson CHC · LHPwith two strikes
David Peterson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball26%30%20.3%17.7%18.6%
Slider19%30%25.0%17.1%21.6%
Sinker31%18%14.6%13.6%17.7%
Changeup15%15%18.5%19.6%18.3%
Curveball8%7%50.0%32.0%21.2%
Other0%0%–100.0%14.3%
Brayan Bello BOS · RHPwith two strikes
Brayan Bello with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup24%29%19.6%12.0%18.6%
Sinker34%26%5.9%20.0%17.0%
Sweeper16%22%35.7%21.8%19.3%
Fastball13%18%16.7%17.4%18.0%
Cutter13%6%40.0%28.6%17.9%

Cubs lineup

Confirmed · facing Brayan Bello RHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Pete Crow-Armstrong CF · bats L65.6%43.7%18.2%4.0+0.7.431APowerHot
2Seiya Suzuki RF · bats R64.4%38.2%12.9%3.9+0.5.361BBalancedHot
3Michael Busch 1B · bats L61.1%34.8%10.9%3.8-0.6.315CBalancedNormal
4Michael Conforto DH · bats L56.9%32.9%10.2%3.8-0.4.363CBalancedNormal
5Ian Happ LF · bats S55.7%31.2%8.4%3.7+0.5.336AvgBalancedHot
6Nico Hoerner SS · bats R69.3%36.7%3.3%3.6+0.8.338DBalancedNormal
7Pedro Ramírez 2B · bats S57.5%29.7%6.2%3.5-0.2.306AvgBalancedNormal
8Carson Kelly C · bats R59.9%31.0%7.1%3.4+0.2.304CContactNormal
9Matt Shaw 3B · bats R51.6%26.5%6.3%3.3+0.1.310FBalancedCold
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.

Red Sox lineup

Confirmed · facing David Peterson LHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Roman Anthony RF · bats L60.7%33.6%9.4%4.0-1.1.278ABalancedCold
2Jahmai Jones LF · bats R58.3%35.5%13.1%3.90.0.415ABalancedCold
3Wilyer Abreu DH · bats L61.4%37.7%11.9%3.8-0.0.343BPowerNormal
4Trevor Story SS · bats R64.0%34.3%9.8%3.8+0.1.334AvgBalancedNormal
5Nick Sogard 1B · bats S59.7%30.7%5.9%3.7+0.3.355FBalancedCold
6Andruw Monasterio 3B · bats R60.4%32.0%7.1%3.6+0.1.335CContactNormal
7Jarren Duran CF · bats L56.8%30.3%7.5%3.5-0.4.330AvgBalancedCold
8Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B · bats R55.5%25.8%2.6%3.4+0.3.269FBalancedCold
9Connor Wong C · bats R51.5%24.9%5.2%3.3+0.7.333FBalancedNormal
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.