MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CIN · batting 2Elly De La Cruz
Switch hitterTalent grade APowerNormal
.385wOBA vs RHP.382xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · TORJosé Soriano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Stable
5.1projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
José Soriano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 34% usage, 96.1 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Elly De La Cruz: wOBA .363 vs league .340 (hitter's edge).Sinker 34%Curveball: 27% usage, 85.5 mph, -13.0″ arm side, -6.8″ rise. Elly De La Cruz: wOBA .316 vs league .294 (hitter's edge).Curveball 27%Fastball: 18% usage, 96.7 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Elly De La Cruz: wOBA .378 vs league .355 (hitter's edge).Fastball 18%Splitter: 17% usage, 92.2 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Elly De La Cruz: wOBA .307 vs league .284 (hitter's edge).Splitter 17%Slider: 4% usage, 90.4 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Elly De La Cruz: wOBA .369 vs league .346 (hitter's edge).Slider 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Elly De La Cruz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Elly De La Cruz's last 40 balls in playHit (21)Out (19)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 101.8 mph at 26°Out: 105.9 mph at 0°Out: 94.4 mph at -7°Home run: 108.0 mph at 25°Out: 77.6 mph at -11°Out: 96.6 mph at 52°Out: 76.2 mph at 59°Home run: 100.9 mph at 24°Single: 99.7 mph at -15°Out: 105.7 mph at 14°Out: 88.2 mph at -12°Single: 76.1 mph at -3°Out: 97.7 mph at 1°Out: 73.1 mph at 32°Single: 104.8 mph at -6°Single: 82.3 mph at 8°Out: 85.4 mph at 43°Out: 106.7 mph at -3°Home run: 106.4 mph at 24°Out: 104.2 mph at 42°Double: 98.8 mph at 8°Single: 96.1 mph at -12°Out: 93.5 mph at -20°Home run: 114.1 mph at 32°Single: 101.7 mph at 2°Out: 114.7 mph at 16°Single: 95.9 mph at 4°Double: 104.3 mph at 11°Double: 117.4 mph at 10°Out: 81.7 mph at -24°Out: 99.0 mph at 52°Out: 101.3 mph at 23°Home run: 106.7 mph at 31°Out: 90.2 mph at 3°Home run: 109.4 mph at 31°Out: 73.3 mph at -20°Double: 108.9 mph at 15°Home run: 108.2 mph at 37°Single: 105.7 mph at -13°Home run: 105.5 mph at 34°
70% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot53% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.4%65.5%+0.9
2+ total bases40.8%40.6%+0.3
Home run14.5%15.9%-1.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+1.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
+1.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-2.4
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Elly De La Cruz hits
Elly De La Cruz · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw .428 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 46 pitches seen.340xwOBA .366 shrunk (raw .426 on 12 PA) · league .307 · 44 pitches seen.366xwOBA .338 shrunk (raw .427 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 24 pitches seen.338xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw .415 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 61 pitches seen.385xwOBA .452 shrunk (raw .485 on 24 PA) · league .386 · 68 pitches seen.452xwOBA .409 shrunk (raw .498 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 41 pitches seen.409xwOBA .210 shrunk (raw .119 on 13 PA) · league .308 · 52 pitches seen.210xwOBA .405 shrunk (raw .434 on 22 PA) · league .351 · 68 pitches seen.405xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .458 on 11 PA) · league .292 · 40 pitches seen.371xwOBA .489 shrunk (raw .543 on 25 PA) · league .377 · 168 pitches seen.489xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .358 on 27 PA) · league .274 · 84 pitches seen.332xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .301 on 29 PA) · league .263 · 151 pitches seen.290xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .323 on 31 PA) · league .274 · 181 pitches seen.309
vs RHP · 1028 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 35% of 20 swings · league 22%35%Whiff 24% of 33 swings · league 20%24%Whiff 17% of 18 swings · league 19%17%Whiff 25% of 32 swings · league 10%25%Whiff 14% of 44 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 7% of 27 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 21% of 24 swings · league 14%21%Whiff 26% of 38 swings · league 13%26%Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 17%21%Whiff 24% of 25 swings · league 28%24%Whiff 15% of 40 swings · league 24%15%Whiff 39% of 41 swings · league 32%39%Whiff 61% of 51 swings · league 49%61%
vs RHP · 1028 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 44% of 46 pitches · league 62%44%Swings at 75% of 44 pitches · league 72%75%Swings at 75% of 24 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 53% of 61 pitches · league 70%53%Swings at 65% of 68 pitches · league 76%65%Swings at 66% of 41 pitches · league 70%66%Swings at 46% of 52 pitches · league 65%46%Swings at 56% of 68 pitches · league 68%56%Swings at 48% of 40 pitches · league 60%48%Swings at 15% of 168 pitches · league 24%15%Swings at 48% of 84 pitches · league 34%48%Swings at 27% of 151 pitches · league 40%27%Swings at 28% of 181 pitches · league 32%28%
vs RHP · 1028 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Elly De La Cruz against each of José Soriano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker34%96.1+15″ / +5″.363.34016.3%14.5%44About league average vs these
Curveball27%85.5-13″ / -7″.316.29440.1%30.7%22About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball18%96.7+9″ / +14″.378.35518.9%16.6%71About league average vs these
Splitter17%92.2+14″ / +2″.307.28436.4%28.5%29About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider4%90.4-1″ / +3″.369.34632.0%24.1%29About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Elly De La Cruz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.364.5001.000.589.59614.3%21.4%29.4%99.1108.033.3%77.8%44.4%
Last 15 G1440.375.500.938.588.55122.5%20.0%26.0%99.6117.436.4%77.3%50.0%
Last 30 G2978.388.474.806.536.48228.2%14.1%25.8%99.7117.427.3%72.7%50.0%
90 days75244.274.369.533.398.40026.2%13.1%27.2%94.7117.416.3%56.5%40.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 147 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.125.125.125.112.03850.0%0.0%35.3%84.396.60.0%25.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1023.190.261.238.230.23543.5%8.7%39.0%93.2114.79.1%54.5%27.3%
Last 30 G2452.348.423.543.440.38728.8%11.5%28.0%96.4115.219.4%54.8%35.5%
90 days49108.355.435.591.453.38825.9%13.0%23.7%95.5116.216.9%52.3%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 65 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 26%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.263.364.632.416.39327.3%13.6%32.4%94.5108.023.1%61.5%30.8%
Last 15 G1563.302.413.660.459.43730.2%15.9%31.9%97.5117.427.3%69.7%42.4%
Last 30 G30130.372.454.699.498.44428.5%13.1%26.7%98.3117.424.0%65.3%44.0%
90 days79352.298.389.551.415.39626.1%13.1%26.1%95.0117.416.5%55.2%38.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 212 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 23%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 6%
Elly De La Cruz · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating97Top tier
Last 100 pitches98steady
wOBA / xwOBA.406 / .393results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker95.9101.8261.262Double
Sep 25RHPCurveball89.2105.90.480Out
Sep 25RHPSplitter92.194.4-7.268Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter88.0108.0251.969Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball97.177.6-11.100Out
Sep 23LHPFastball95.696.652.016Out
Sep 23LHPSlider85.176.259.035Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball83.1100.924.835Home run
Sep 22RHPSlider87.099.7-15.197Single
Sep 22RHPFastball98.1105.714.740Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball77.988.2-12.167Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup84.976.1-3.084Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25512011
Sep 24414102
Sep 23400002
Sep 22525120
Sep 20411001
Sep 19400021
Sep 18422020
Sep 17400003
Sep 16414110
Sep 15423010

Two strikes

José Soriano TOR · RHPwith two strikes
José Soriano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball27%29%32.8%24.1%20.0%
Fastball18%23%14.8%16.7%18.0%
Sinker34%22%9.8%10.7%17.0%
Splitter17%19%20.0%15.3%19.0%
Slider4%7%27.3%10.7%21.1%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Elly De La Cruz bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Elly De La Cruz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.9%41.0%
Whiff%23.4%21.3%
Contact%76.6%78.7%
Chase%36.0%39.6%
wOBA.259.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.9%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.392
K%25.9%
BB%12.5%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%9.1%
Hard-hit%32.2%
Avg EV94.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

244 PA
wOBA.385
xwOBA vs this mix.382against pitches like his
RV/1001.33
Hard-hit%32.8%
K%26.2%
BB%12.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
José SorianoRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.1 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.0%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.0%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.9%15%67 strikeouts: 10.9%11%78 strikeouts: 7.0%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.8%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.8%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker34%9896.15.8%
Curveball27%10285.417.8%
Fastball18%9296.68.1%
Splitter17%11092.29.5%
Slider4%10390.29.1%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198035%16%22%.365
Sep 149020%8%20%.236
Sep 88911%5%26%.307

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

José Soriano TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Elly De La Cruz: every projection we've made →