MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CIN · batting 7Juan Brito
Switch hitterTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.312wOBA vs RHP.286xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · TORJosé Soriano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Stable
5.1projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
José Soriano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 34% usage, 96.1 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Juan Brito: wOBA .336 vs league .340 (about even).Sinker 34%Curveball: 27% usage, 85.5 mph, -13.0″ arm side, -6.8″ rise. Juan Brito: wOBA .291 vs league .294 (about even).Curveball 27%Fastball: 18% usage, 96.7 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Juan Brito: wOBA .351 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 18%Splitter: 17% usage, 92.2 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Juan Brito: wOBA .281 vs league .284 (about even).Splitter 17%Slider: 4% usage, 90.4 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Juan Brito: wOBA .343 vs league .346 (about even).Slider 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Juan Brito's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Juan Brito's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.3 mph at -11°Single: 81.3 mph at 8°Single: 102.6 mph at 4°Out: 73.0 mph at -7°Single: 96.3 mph at 15°Home run: 102.3 mph at 28°Out: 72.5 mph at 15°Out: 82.2 mph at 20°Out: 84.2 mph at 25°Out: 82.6 mph at 45°Out: 84.2 mph at -31°Out: 66.8 mph at -49°Out: 101.1 mph at -11°Out: 80.6 mph at 81°Single: 98.9 mph at 22°Single: 104.3 mph at 5°Single: 63.6 mph at 46°Out: 79.2 mph at 68°Out: 57.0 mph at 69°Single: 100.8 mph at 2°Out: 88.7 mph at 37°Single: 86.9 mph at 14°Out: 95.9 mph at -12°Out: 85.3 mph at 36°Out: 90.6 mph at -10°Double: 90.8 mph at 25°Home run: 105.5 mph at 30°Out: 75.6 mph at 10°Single: 100.9 mph at -3°Single: 102.7 mph at 27°Out: 71.6 mph at 0°Out: 81.9 mph at 9°Out: 86.8 mph at 50°Double: 102.4 mph at 24°Single: 76.2 mph at 21°Single: 77.4 mph at 19°Out: 62.6 mph at 7°Out: 90.6 mph at 30°Home run: 95.0 mph at 41°Out: 87.8 mph at 50°
35% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.0%62.2%-0.2
2+ total bases36.0%36.6%-0.6
Home run11.8%12.8%-1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Juan Brito hits
Juan Brito · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .030 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 4 pitches seen.239xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .307 · 4 pitches seen.263xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .268 on 2 PA) · league .342 · 7 pitches seen.331xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .332 on 5 PA) · league .386 · 11 pitches seen.370xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .018 on 2 PA) · league .321 · 7 pitches seen.278xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .376 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 9 pitches seen.318xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .007 on 2 PA) · league .351 · 6 pitches seen.302xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .198 on 1 PA) · league .292 · 6 pitches seen.285xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .377 · 13 pitches seen.373xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .010 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 4 pitches seen.254xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .251 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 24 pitches seen.259xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 18 pitches seen
vs RHP · 116 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 20%50%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 10%20%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 11%14%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 14%40%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 28%25%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 32%29%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 49%25%
vs RHP · 116 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 62%100%Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 100% of 7 pitches · league 70%100%Swings at 56% of 9 pitches · league 65%56%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 60%67%Swings at 31% of 13 pitches · league 24%31%Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 34%50%Swings at 29% of 24 pitches · league 40%29%Swings at 22% of 18 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 116 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Juan Brito against each of José Soriano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker34%96.1+15″ / +5″.336.34013.6%14.5%6Little history vs this shape
Curveball27%85.5-13″ / -7″.291.29427.5%30.7%3Little history vs this shape
Fastball18%96.7+9″ / +14″.351.35515.4%16.6%8Little history vs this shape
Splitter17%92.2+14″ / +2″.281.28427.2%28.5%4Little history vs this shape
Slider4%90.4-1″ / +3″.343.34621.6%24.1%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Juan Brito · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.364.364.364.327.2279.1%0.0%11.1%92.1104.30.0%50.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1027.240.296.360.293.20314.8%7.4%18.0%86.9104.30.0%33.3%23.8%
Last 30 G1027.240.296.360.293.20314.8%7.4%18.0%86.9104.30.0%33.3%23.8%
90 days1027.240.296.360.293.20314.8%7.4%18.0%86.9104.30.0%33.3%23.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 5%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.375.375.750.475.48512.5%0.0%25.0%79.5102.314.3%28.6%57.1%
Last 15 G924.478.458.826.533.49912.5%0.0%19.2%86.6105.519.0%33.3%61.9%
Last 30 G924.478.458.826.533.49912.5%0.0%19.2%86.6105.519.0%33.3%61.9%
90 days924.478.458.826.533.49912.5%0.0%19.2%86.6105.519.0%33.3%61.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 24%Line drive 38%Fly ball 38%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.368.368.526.389.33610.5%0.0%17.0%86.9104.35.9%41.2%41.2%
Last 15 G1451.354.373.583.406.34213.7%3.9%18.6%86.8105.59.5%33.3%42.9%
Last 30 G1451.354.373.583.406.34213.7%3.9%18.6%86.8105.59.5%33.3%42.9%
90 days1451.354.373.583.406.34213.7%3.9%18.6%86.8105.59.5%33.3%42.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 42 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 21%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 7%
FormHot
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.405 / .368running 38 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker95.0101.3-11.198Out
Sep 25RHPSplitter91.281.38.306Single
Sep 25RHPCutter94.4102.64.531Single
Sep 23LHPSlider83.773.0-7.064Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup92.796.315.803Single
Sep 23LHPFastball96.9102.3281.330Home run
Sep 23LHPSlider82.972.515.483Out
Sep 19LHPSlider85.482.220.816Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper85.684.225.175Out
Sep 19RHPFastball99.082.645.010Out
Sep 17RHPCurveball78.684.2-31.044Double play
Sep 17LHPSinker97.066.8-49.204Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422001
Sep 23425100
Sep 19400001
Sep 17400000
Sep 16333000
Sep 15311000
Sep 14311000
Sep 13412001
Sep 12436100
Sep 9400001

Two strikes

José Soriano TOR · RHPwith two strikes
José Soriano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball27%29%32.8%24.1%20.0%
Fastball18%23%14.8%16.7%18.0%
Sinker34%22%9.8%10.7%17.0%
Splitter17%19%20.0%15.3%19.0%
Slider4%7%27.3%10.7%21.1%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Juan Brito bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Juan Brito with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.3%41.0%
Whiff%19.1%21.3%
Contact%80.9%78.7%
Chase%36.5%39.6%
wOBA.246.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.5%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.329
K%21.0%
BB%7.3%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%25.9%
Avg EV88.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

23 PA
wOBA.312
xwOBA vs this mix.286against pitches like his
RV/100-0.28
Hard-hit%24.8%
K%19.1%
BB%6.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
José SorianoRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.1 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.0%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.0%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.9%15%67 strikeouts: 10.9%11%78 strikeouts: 7.0%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.8%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.8%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker34%9896.15.8%
Curveball27%10285.417.8%
Fastball18%9296.68.1%
Splitter17%11092.29.5%
Slider4%10390.29.1%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198035%16%22%.365
Sep 149020%8%20%.236
Sep 88911%5%26%.307

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

José Soriano TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Juan Brito: every projection we've made →