MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TOR · batting 3Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Bats rightTalent grade APowerNormal
.354wOBA vs LHP.356xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · CINNick Lodolo
Throws leftBTB Stuff 91Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Nick Lodolo's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 28% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.4″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: wOBA .373 vs league .367 (about even).Fastball 28%Sinker: 27% usage, 93.5 mph, +18.6″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: wOBA .379 vs league .373 (about even).Sinker 27%Curveball: 24% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -0.8″ rise. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: wOBA .315 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 24%Changeup: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: wOBA .326 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 22%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 78.8 mph at 33°Single: 63.9 mph at -19°Out: 112.5 mph at -11°Out: 43.8 mph at -62°Out: 91.8 mph at -38°Out: 102.5 mph at 18°Out: 56.7 mph at 58°Double: 103.6 mph at 18°Out: 76.4 mph at -24°Single: 97.1 mph at -23°Out: 77.5 mph at 42°Single: 103.8 mph at -15°Out: 93.9 mph at 34°Out: 106.4 mph at -9°Out: 67.6 mph at -28°Single: 103.2 mph at 9°Out: 100.5 mph at 16°Single: 86.9 mph at 10°Out: 96.1 mph at -18°Out: 104.1 mph at 22°Out: 76.5 mph at 41°Out: 91.4 mph at -34°Out: 78.0 mph at -28°Out: 82.3 mph at -44°Out: 99.9 mph at 27°Home run: 94.0 mph at 26°Double: 105.3 mph at 24°Single: 115.5 mph at 1°Single: 82.3 mph at 17°Out: 54.4 mph at -35°Double: 100.1 mph at 20°Out: 76.4 mph at -45°Single: 68.1 mph at -53°Out: 109.6 mph at -7°Out: 76.0 mph at -14°Out: 95.7 mph at 27°Single: 89.4 mph at -1°Out: 105.0 mph at 20°Single: 97.3 mph at 10°Single: 68.4 mph at 29°
45% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit70.7%67.3%+3.4
2+ total bases43.5%39.0%+4.5
Home run12.8%9.3%+3.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
+1.5
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .024 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 9 pitches seen.212xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .152 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 14 pitches seen.267xwOBA .204 shrunk (raw .005 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 13 pitches seen.204xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .457 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 12 pitches seen.368xwOBA .507 shrunk (raw .715 on 7 PA) · league .385 · 17 pitches seen.507xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .454 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 14 pitches seen.368xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .233 on 7 PA) · league .273 · 22 pitches seen.258xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .240 on 5 PA) · league .350 · 12 pitches seen.318xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .366 on 6 PA) · league .299 · 16 pitches seen.321xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .236 on 7 PA) · league .302 · 26 pitches seen.278xwOBA .439 shrunk (raw .562 on 9 PA) · league .346 · 47 pitches seen.439xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .412 on 9 PA) · league .289 · 50 pitches seen.342xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .203 on 8 PA) · league .257 · 54 pitches seen.235
vs LHP · 306 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 21%9%Whiff 44% of 9 swings · league 23%44%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 14%10%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 16%17%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 33% of 12 swings · league 48%33%Whiff 38% of 16 swings · league 34%38%
vs LHP · 306 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 33% of 9 pitches · league 63%33%Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 71%79%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 64%69%Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 67%83%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 72%57%Swings at 55% of 22 pitches · league 59%55%Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 75% of 16 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 27% of 26 pitches · league 30%27%Swings at 26% of 47 pitches · league 26%26%Swings at 24% of 50 pitches · league 31%24%Swings at 30% of 54 pitches · league 41%30%
vs LHP · 306 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. against each of Nick Lodolo's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball28%93.7+16″ / +9″.373.3677.9%12.6%13About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker27%93.5+19″ / +4″.379.3736.8%10.8%8Little history vs this shape
Curveball24%82.5-5″ / -1″.315.30921.3%30.1%10About league average vs these
Changeup22%87.7+17″ / +1″.326.31921.3%28.4%8About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.000.250.000.175.24325.0%25.0%33.3%61.378.80.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G817.267.353.533.379.41117.6%11.8%17.9%85.4109.68.3%50.0%50.0%
Last 30 G1536.303.361.545.389.38411.1%8.3%13.6%87.6110.210.3%41.4%34.5%
90 days3378.290.372.435.358.36014.1%11.5%13.4%90.3111.16.9%39.7%32.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 58 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.333.333.400.323.2086.7%0.0%7.4%89.8112.50.0%50.0%21.4%
Last 15 G1546.268.348.317.307.30217.4%8.7%28.2%92.2115.59.1%51.5%27.3%
Last 30 G3090.244.300.293.270.30412.2%6.7%20.5%92.6116.34.2%52.8%23.6%
90 days64192.236.286.337.283.30016.7%6.2%21.0%91.3116.36.8%47.6%27.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 147 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 18%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.278.316.333.292.21510.5%5.3%12.1%86.2112.50.0%43.8%18.8%
Last 15 G1563.268.349.375.326.33117.5%9.5%25.5%90.4115.58.9%51.1%33.3%
Last 30 G30126.261.317.365.304.32711.9%7.1%18.6%91.2116.35.9%49.5%26.7%
90 days64270.251.311.364.304.31715.9%7.8%18.7%91.0116.36.8%45.4%29.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 205 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 20%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 9%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating69Above average
Last 100 pitches74steady
wOBA / xwOBA.304 / .334running 31 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup87.178.833.064Out
Sep 25RHPSinker97.663.9-19.044Single
Sep 25RHPCutter97.7112.5-11.301Out
Sep 25LHPCurveball82.843.8-62.209Out
Sep 23RHPSinker93.591.8-38.035Double play
Sep 23RHPSinker94.1102.518.590Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper87.056.758.003Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper73.4103.618.608Double
Sep 20RHPSlider92.276.4-24.031Out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.797.1-23.098Single
Sep 19RHPCurveball77.277.542.100Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper86.3103.8-15.218Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25511001
Sep 23412000
Sep 20211000
Sep 19411010
Sep 18411001
Sep 16411010
Sep 15400010
Sep 14500011
Sep 13548101
Sep 12512002

Two strikes

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPwith two strikes
Nick Lodolo with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball28%33%15.9%12.5%18.6%
Curveball24%30%39.5%23.5%21.2%
Sinker27%23%8.1%11.5%17.7%
Changeup22%15%17.2%12.2%18.3%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.7%41.5%
Whiff%18.7%21.6%
Contact%81.3%78.4%
Chase%35.3%39.9%
wOBA.261.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.9%18.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.331
K%16.1%
BB%8.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%35.2%
Avg EV91.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

76 PA
wOBA.354
xwOBA vs this mix.356against pitches like his
RV/1000.93
Hard-hit%31.2%
K%14.8%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick LodoloLHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.5%60%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.2%6%67 strikeouts: 3.0%3%78 strikeouts: 1.2%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 23% (red bars) · under: 77%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.7%
BB%10.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff91
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%10293.65.4%
Sinker27%9693.42.3%
Curveball24%9082.517.9%
Changeup22%7087.711.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19903%3%35%.309
Sep 1410415%7%30%.285
Sep 89726%11%17%.441

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: every projection we've made →