MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · KC · batting 9Kyle Isbel
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.255wOBA vs RHP.248xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · CLEGavin Williams
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Up
7.2projected K39%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Gavin Williams's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 32% usage, 87.8 mph, -12.2″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Kyle Isbel: wOBA .282 vs league .296 (about even).Sweeper 32%Fastball: 31% usage, 98.4 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. Kyle Isbel: wOBA .325 vs league .339 (about even).Fastball 31%Curveball: 22% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.6″ arm side, -15.1″ rise. Kyle Isbel: wOBA .279 vs league .294 (about even).Curveball 22%Sinker: 13% usage, 97.9 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Kyle Isbel: wOBA .337 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 13%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kyle Isbel's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kyle Isbel's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 24.3 mph at -44°Out: 81.8 mph at 52°Single: 73.7 mph at 22°Out: 80.5 mph at 65°Single: 101.8 mph at 2°Single: 89.2 mph at -3°Out: 88.2 mph at 1°Out: 36.4 mph at 60°Out: 81.7 mph at 10°Out: 90.2 mph at 49°Single: 100.6 mph at -8°Out: 23.1 mph at -26°Out: 97.5 mph at -21°Out: 93.9 mph at -25°Out: 29.4 mph at -35°Out: 105.9 mph at 5°Out: 89.9 mph at 50°Out: 95.6 mph at -3°Out: 88.1 mph at -48°Out: 103.6 mph at 17°Single: 87.1 mph at 11°Out: 80.7 mph at 45°Out: 86.7 mph at 38°Single: 99.4 mph at 11°Out: 74.8 mph at 38°Out: 24.7 mph at 44°Out: 81.1 mph at -7°Single: 83.0 mph at 8°Out: 28.3 mph at 52°Out: 77.3 mph at 75°Out: 79.0 mph at 4°Out: 88.7 mph at 41°Out: 106.3 mph at -19°Out: 89.1 mph at -22°Out: 54.2 mph at -56°Out: 84.0 mph at -43°Single: 86.6 mph at 13°Single: 91.8 mph at 3°Out: 84.0 mph at 52°Out: 89.5 mph at 52°
20% hit 95+ mph18% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit47.1%51.8%-4.7
2+ total bases20.5%23.5%-3.1
Home run4.1%4.7%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.0
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Kyle Isbel hits
Kyle Isbel · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .277 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 12 pitches seen.275xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .360 on 5 PA) · league .307 · 24 pitches seen.323xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .251 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 12 pitches seen.259xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .379 on 10 PA) · league .342 · 19 pitches seen.359xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .086 on 11 PA) · league .386 · 26 pitches seen.243xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .132 on 6 PA) · league .321 · 11 pitches seen.258xwOBA .338 shrunk (raw .384 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 16 pitches seen.338xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .295 on 9 PA) · league .351 · 23 pitches seen.327xwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .874 on 2 PA) · league .292 · 15 pitches seen.375xwOBA .412 shrunk (raw .497 on 5 PA) · league .377 · 45 pitches seen.412xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .016 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 15 pitches seen.237xwOBA .208 shrunk (raw .153 on 12 PA) · league .263 · 52 pitches seen.208xwOBA .187 shrunk (raw .112 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 65 pitches seen.187
vs RHP · 335 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 22%14%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 20%6%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 19%10%Whiff 0% of 15 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 19 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 14%18%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 17%14%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 28%0%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 24%11%Whiff 46% of 26 swings · league 32%46%Whiff 39% of 23 swings · league 49%39%
vs RHP · 335 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 62%58%Swings at 67% of 24 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 66%83%Swings at 79% of 19 pitches · league 70%79%Swings at 73% of 26 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 70%64%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 65%69%Swings at 44% of 23 pitches · league 68%44%Swings at 47% of 15 pitches · league 60%47%Swings at 22% of 45 pitches · league 24%22%Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 34%60%Swings at 50% of 52 pitches · league 40%50%Swings at 35% of 65 pitches · league 32%35%
vs RHP · 335 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Kyle Isbel against each of Gavin Williams's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper32%87.8-12″ / -1″.282.29629.0%33.8%10About league average vs these
Fastball31%98.4+10″ / +15″.325.33913.3%19.9%20About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball22%82.4-11″ / -15″.279.29428.1%32.6%7Little history vs this shape
Sinker13%97.9+15″ / +9″.337.35210.8%16.5%13About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kyle Isbel · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.286.286.286.271.21326.7%0.0%20.0%77.1101.80.0%18.2%18.2%
Last 15 G1438.167.189.167.200.20226.3%2.6%20.6%76.8105.90.0%23.1%19.2%
Last 30 G2976.225.267.338.286.26723.7%5.3%16.9%83.3106.61.9%28.3%24.5%
90 days3896.211.242.300.254.24822.9%4.2%16.5%84.5106.61.4%30.4%21.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 69 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 14%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.000.000.000.100.10066.7%0.0%20.0%23.123.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G610.111.111.111.122.15930.0%0.0%17.6%82.1106.30.0%28.6%14.3%
Last 30 G1727.120.120.120.152.17425.9%0.0%11.6%79.7106.30.0%20.0%15.0%
90 days2441.135.158.216.200.20524.4%2.4%11.9%78.7106.30.0%26.7%16.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 30 balls in play
Ground 63%Line drive 13%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.250.250.250.250.19933.3%0.0%20.0%72.6101.80.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1548.156.174.156.184.19427.1%2.1%20.0%78.0106.30.0%24.2%18.2%
Last 30 G30103.198.230.281.253.24324.3%3.9%15.6%82.4106.61.4%26.0%21.9%
90 days40137.189.218.276.239.23623.4%3.6%15.2%82.7106.61.0%29.3%20.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 99 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 14%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 13%
Kyle Isbel · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating3Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches0steady
wOBA / xwOBA.224 / .232results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball97.924.3-44–Sac bunt
Sep 25RHPFastball99.181.852.043Out
Sep 25RHPFastball94.973.722.896Single
Sep 25RHPFastball97.880.565.013Out
Sep 24RHPCurveball83.8101.82.515Single
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.789.2-3.216Single
Sep 22RHPFastball96.688.21.288Out
Sep 19RHPFastball96.636.460.086Out
Sep 19RHPSinker97.181.710.458Out
Sep 19RHPFastball94.890.249.008Out
Sep 18RHPFastball96.9100.6-8.259Single
Sep 18LHPFastball89.423.1-26–Sac bunt
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411000
Sep 24322001
Sep 22400003
Sep 19400001
Sep 18311001
Sep 17300001
Sep 16100000
Sep 15300001
Sep 12200000
Sep 11411001

Two strikes

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPwith two strikes
Gavin Williams with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper32%43%44.3%29.2%19.3%
Fastball31%33%30.2%25.9%18.0%
Curveball22%19%34.6%23.7%20.0%
Sinker13%4%7.1%22.7%17.0%
Cutter2%1%40.0%33.3%17.9%
Kyle Isbel bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kyle Isbel with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.0%41.0%
Whiff%22.3%21.3%
Contact%77.7%78.7%
Chase%43.4%39.6%
wOBA.232.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes29.2%28.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.281
K%22.0%
BB%4.9%
Whiff%8.9%
Barrel%1.3%
Hard-hit%24.2%
Avg EV84.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

92 PA
wOBA.255
xwOBA vs this mix.248against pitches like his
RV/100-1.73
Hard-hit%23.0%
K%23.8%
BB%4.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Gavin WilliamsRHP · CLE vs KC
7.2projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 7.4%7%≤34 strikeouts: 8.5%9%45 strikeouts: 12.0%12%56 strikeouts: 14.4%14%67 strikeouts: 14.8%15%78 strikeouts: 13.2%13%89+ strikeouts: 29.7%30%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 58% (red bars) · under: 42%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%39.1%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%16.9%
Velo91.3
BTB Stuff110
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper32%12487.924.6%
Fastball31%11198.314.8%
Curveball22%9882.513.7%
Sinker13%9497.98.6%
Cutter2%10993.215.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208938%24%21%.148
Sep 1411329%19%13%.296
Sep 69946%16%21%.267

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kyle Isbel: every projection we've made →