CLE at KC, Sep 25, 2026

The game

CLE runs4.1win 56%

KC runs3.5win 44%

Total7.5no pre-game book line

No run, 1st inning57%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: +1.5% vs neutral air
Weather: – · Wind unknown
Park factor: Runs 103 · HR 89 100 = average
Umpire: Tom Hanahan
Schedule: CLE traveled in

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

CLE starter

Gavin WilliamsRHP · CLE vs KC

7.2projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings

Over 6.5: 58% (red bars) · under: 42%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%39.1%

BB%7.6%

Whiff%16.9%

Velo91.3

BTB Stuff110

Location98

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sweeper32%12487.924.6%

Fastball31%11198.314.8%

Curveball22%9882.513.7%

Sinker13%9497.98.6%

Cutter2%10993.215.6%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	89	38%	24%	21%	.148
Sep 14	113	29%	19%	13%	.296
Sep 6	99	46%	16%	21%	.267

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Carter Jensen26%

2Bobby Witt Jr.17%

3Jac Caglianone19%

4Maikel Garcia19%

5Vinnie Pasquantino13%

6Salvador Perez19%

7Michael Massey16%

8John Rave21%

9Kyle Isbel24%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

KC starter

Noah CameronLHP · KC vs CLE

4.4projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 24.4 batters over 5.7 innings

Over 4.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%21.7%

BB%8.7%

Whiff%12.7%

Velo86.8

BTB Stuff97

Location105

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Cutter23%11590.09.2%

Fastball20%8792.76.8%

Changeup19%9281.221.0%

Slider16%10185.221.3%

Curveball16%8681.610.6%

Sinker6%8891.42.2%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	94	23%	13%	27%	.408
Sep 13	85	17%	12%	26%	.304
Sep 7	99	32%	11%	9%	.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Noah Cameron KC · LHPvsCLE lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Steven Kwan12%

2José Ramírez11%

3Chase DeLauter25%

4Jo Adell26%

5Angel Martínez21%

6David Fry25%

7Travis Bazzana21%

8Austin Hedges17%

9Brayan Rocchio18%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Noah Cameron KC · LHPvsCLE lineuppitch-mix battle

Noah Cameron's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Noah Cameron's pitches					CLE lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Cutter	23%	90.0	115	9.2%	2.60	.338	12.8%	24.3%	-0.60
Fastball	20%	92.7	87	6.8%	0.60	.327	9.6%	25.4%	+0.02
Changeup	19%	81.2	92	21.0%	0.80	.322	16.0%	25.0%	-0.22
Slider	16%	85.2	101	21.3%	-0.51	.313	12.4%	19.5%	+0.12
Curveball	16%	81.6	86	10.6%	0.71	.193	9.6%	9.3%	-1.15
Sinker	6%	91.4	88	2.2%	-1.04	.343	4.1%	29.7%	+0.20

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPvsKC lineuppitch-mix battle

Gavin Williams's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Gavin Williams's pitches					KC lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Sweeper	32%	87.9	124	24.6%	1.91	.261	13.3%	22.7%	-1.58
Fastball	31%	98.3	111	14.8%	1.67	.351	7.7%	29.6%	+0.22
Curveball	22%	82.5	98	13.7%	0.34	.296	11.8%	24.3%	-0.20
Sinker	13%	97.9	94	8.6%	-3.24	.360	3.6%	33.0%	+0.81
Cutter	2%	93.2	109	15.6%	3.51	.342	9.4%	30.6%	-0.05

Bullpens

Guardians bullpen#1 of 30

K%29.3%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%20.9%

SwStr%12.7%

wOBA allowed.282

Arms available18 / 18

Pitched yesterday: Cantillo, Gaddis, Espino, Smith, Sabrowski.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Royals bullpen#19 of 30

K%20.5%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%13.5%

SwStr%10.7%

wOBA allowed.345

Arms available15 / 16

Pitched yesterday: Dobnak, Cuas, Bivens, Gose (Back-to-Back), Lange, Hoffman.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Sweeper+11 pts

Fastball+1 pts

Curveball-4 pts

Sinker-8 pts

Cutter-1 pts

Gavin Williams with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Sweeper	32%	43%	44.3%	29.2%	19.3%
Fastball	31%	33%	30.2%	25.9%	18.0%
Curveball	22%	19%	34.6%	23.7%	20.0%
Sinker	13%	4%	7.1%	22.7%	17.0%
Cutter	2%	1%	40.0%	33.3%	17.9%

Noah Cameron KC · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Slider+10 pts

Curveball+9 pts

Fastball+0 pts

Changeup-2 pts

Cutter-13 pts

Sinker-4 pts

Noah Cameron with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Slider	16%	26%	38.8%	25.0%	21.6%
Curveball	16%	25%	26.8%	16.3%	21.2%
Fastball	20%	20%	10.3%	10.6%	18.6%
Changeup	19%	17%	25.5%	20.5%	18.3%
Cutter	23%	10%	19.4%	19.5%	17.9%
Sinker	6%	2%	0.0%	30.0%	17.7%

Guardians lineup

Confirmed · facing Noah Cameron LHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Steven Kwan CF · bats L	72.0%	37.7%	2.8%	4.0	+1.5	.371	A	Contact	Hot
2	José Ramírez 3B · bats S	65.9%	36.1%	5.7%	3.9	+0.7	.311	B	Contact	Normal
3	Chase DeLauter DH · bats L	66.9%	38.6%	9.2%	3.8	+0.8	.378	A	Power	Cold
4	Jo Adell RF · bats R	65.5%	41.4%	17.0%	3.8	+2.8	.439	B	Balanced	Normal
5	Angel Martínez LF · bats S	66.1%	37.8%	9.5%	3.7	+2.2	.418	F	Balanced	Hot
6	David Fry 1B · bats R	51.4%	27.8%	9.4%	3.6	+1.1	.297	F	Balanced	Hot
7	Travis Bazzana 2B · bats L	56.2%	28.5%	6.6%	3.5	+0.2	.283	D	Balanced	Normal
8	Austin Hedges C · bats R	54.4%	27.5%	7.3%	3.4	+1.4	.345	F	Balanced	Hot
9	Brayan Rocchio SS · bats S	58.8%	29.3%	5.5%	3.3	+0.0	.255	F	Balanced	Normal

Royals lineup

Confirmed · facing Gavin Williams RHP