MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · COL · batting 5Kyle Karros
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.351wOBA vs RHP.338xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · CWSSean Burke
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Down
5.7projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Sean Burke's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 37% usage, 95.1 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Kyle Karros: wOBA .339 vs league .330 (about even).Fastball 37%Curveball: 19% usage, 78.5 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -14.6″ rise. Kyle Karros: wOBA .296 vs league .288 (about even).Curveball 19%Slider: 16% usage, 86.1 mph, -5.6″ arm side, +2.3″ rise. Kyle Karros: wOBA .300 vs league .292 (about even).Slider 16%Cutter: 15% usage, 89.5 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +8.3″ rise. Kyle Karros: wOBA .309 vs league .300 (about even).Cutter 15%Sinker: 12% usage, 95.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Kyle Karros: wOBA .360 vs league .351 (about even).Sinker 12%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kyle Karros's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kyle Karros's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 76.0 mph at -34°Home run: 107.8 mph at 22°Single: 76.6 mph at 26°Out: 94.2 mph at 29°Out: 97.3 mph at -19°Out: 88.5 mph at 41°Single: 100.7 mph at -13°Out: 89.8 mph at 49°Out: 104.9 mph at -3°Out: 81.4 mph at 31°Out: 91.6 mph at -33°Single: 110.7 mph at 8°Out: 106.5 mph at 16°Out: 108.0 mph at -9°Single: 88.3 mph at 21°Out: 100.3 mph at -16°Out: 80.7 mph at 39°Home run: 101.2 mph at 30°Out: 91.9 mph at -2°Out: 92.3 mph at 5°Out: 94.2 mph at -6°Out: 80.8 mph at 13°Single: 91.7 mph at 5°Out: 98.6 mph at 9°Out: 55.2 mph at -29°Out: 93.6 mph at 35°Double: 102.0 mph at 25°Out: 108.3 mph at -6°Single: 100.9 mph at -4°Out: 82.5 mph at 31°Out: 65.9 mph at 68°Single: 81.6 mph at 4°Out: 85.3 mph at -3°Out: 73.0 mph at -20°Out: 101.0 mph at 11°Out: 92.8 mph at -27°Home run: 109.1 mph at 27°Out: 89.1 mph at 57°Triple: 103.7 mph at 21°Out: 72.9 mph at -44°
40% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.5%60.7%-1.2
2+ total bases32.6%33.4%-0.8
Home run10.8%10.7%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.3
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Kyle Karros hits
Kyle Karros · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .590 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.390xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .385 on 12 PA) · league .307 · 25 pitches seen.346xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .642 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.358xwOBA .369 shrunk (raw .397 on 12 PA) · league .342 · 26 pitches seen.369xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .265 on 16 PA) · league .386 · 33 pitches seen.317xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .226 on 11 PA) · league .321 · 35 pitches seen.276xwOBA .406 shrunk (raw .642 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 15 pitches seen.406xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .294 on 7 PA) · league .351 · 22 pitches seen.330xwOBA .222 shrunk (raw .157 on 13 PA) · league .292 · 37 pitches seen.222xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .268 on 15 PA) · league .377 · 45 pitches seen.316xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .174 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 39 pitches seen.245xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .524 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 22 pitches seen.328xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .296 on 27 PA) · league .274 · 192 pitches seen.289
vs RHP · 530 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 22%7%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 20%5%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 19%8%Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 0% of 25 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 11%19%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 14%9%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 13%27%Whiff 15% of 20 swings · league 17%15%Whiff 27% of 22 swings · league 28%27%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 24%13%Whiff 50% of 8 swings · league 32%50%Whiff 69% of 39 swings · league 49%69%
vs RHP · 530 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 70% of 20 pitches · league 62%70%Swings at 88% of 25 pitches · league 72%88%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 66%68%Swings at 81% of 26 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 76% of 33 pitches · league 76%76%Swings at 60% of 35 pitches · league 70%60%Swings at 73% of 15 pitches · league 65%73%Swings at 50% of 22 pitches · league 68%50%Swings at 54% of 37 pitches · league 60%54%Swings at 49% of 45 pitches · league 24%49%Swings at 41% of 39 pitches · league 34%41%Swings at 36% of 22 pitches · league 40%36%Swings at 20% of 192 pitches · league 32%20%
vs RHP · 530 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Kyle Karros against each of Sean Burke's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball37%95.1+4″ / +18″.339.33015.7%22.9%27About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball19%78.5-6″ / -15″.296.28834.6%30.2%5Little history vs this shape
Slider16%86.1-6″ / +2″.300.29236.4%31.4%28About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter15%89.5-4″ / +8″.309.30019.7%28.2%24About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker12%95.0+13″ / +14″.360.35110.4%15.6%48About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kyle Karros · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.077.250.077.188.19631.2%18.8%39.1%93.6104.90.0%37.5%25.0%
Last 15 G1548.186.271.256.245.28225.0%8.3%28.9%91.5110.76.5%38.7%35.5%
Last 30 G2988.218.295.269.264.29623.9%8.0%20.5%90.1110.75.3%38.6%33.3%
90 days46139.248.338.413.341.32721.6%10.1%22.2%90.9110.77.7%39.6%34.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 91 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 17%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.500.6001.250.720.57220.0%20.0%28.6%86.8107.833.3%33.3%66.7%
Last 15 G716.286.375.929.519.49218.8%12.5%27.3%90.4109.127.3%36.4%54.5%
Last 30 G1637.303.378.697.447.40513.5%8.1%19.3%86.1109.114.3%25.0%60.7%
90 days3070.276.400.534.405.38217.1%12.9%22.3%86.7109.113.0%30.4%54.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 46 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 26%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.176.333.353.314.28528.6%19.0%36.7%91.7107.89.1%36.4%36.4%
Last 15 G1564.211.297.421.313.33523.4%9.4%28.6%91.2110.711.9%38.1%40.5%
Last 30 G30125.243.320.396.319.32820.8%8.0%20.2%88.8110.78.2%34.1%42.4%
90 days50209.257.359.453.362.34520.1%11.0%22.3%89.5110.79.5%36.5%40.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 137 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 20%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 10%
Kyle Karros · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating88Excellent
Last 100 pitches75trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.373 / .363results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSweeper82.176.0-34.039Out
Sep 24LHPFastball90.2107.8221.608Home run
Sep 24LHPFastball91.176.626.513Single
Sep 24RHPSlider88.494.229.201Out
Sep 24RHPSinker94.397.3-19.125Out
Sep 23RHPCutter90.688.541.004Out
Sep 23RHPSinker96.9100.7-13.181Single
Sep 22RHPCutter90.789.849.008Out
Sep 22RHPSlider88.1104.9-3.382Force out
Sep 19RHPSlider87.581.431.093Out
Sep 19RHPSinker97.391.6-33.047Force out
Sep 18RHPSinker95.3110.78.703Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400012
Sep 24525101
Sep 23411011
Sep 22400002
Sep 19400020
Sep 18511002
Sep 17411001
Sep 16414110
Sep 15511010
Sep 14523000

Two strikes

Sean Burke CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Sean Burke with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball37%50%17.4%18.8%18.0%
Curveball19%19%28.6%20.7%20.0%
Slider16%14%25.5%23.4%21.1%
Sinker12%10%7.1%11.4%17.0%
Cutter15%8%37.5%27.0%17.9%
Kyle Karros bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kyle Karros with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.6%42.4%
Whiff%22.5%22.2%
Contact%77.5%77.8%
Chase%37.6%39.9%
wOBA.242.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.8%22.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.332
K%20.6%
BB%10.5%
Whiff%10.2%
Barrel%4.6%
Hard-hit%24.2%
Avg EV89.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

140 PA
wOBA.351
xwOBA vs this mix.338against pitches like his
RV/1000.61
Hard-hit%26.8%
K%20.8%
BB%10.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean BurkeRHP · CWS vs COL
5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.1 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 18.5%19%≤34 strikeouts: 14.8%15%45 strikeouts: 16.7%17%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 12.9%13%78 strikeouts: 9.1%9%89+ strikeouts: 12.2%12%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.2%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%12.1%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff110
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball37%12995.112.4%
Curveball19%9078.411.7%
Slider16%9786.016.6%
Cutter16%12189.613.2%
Sinker12%8394.95.0%
Changeup1%8386.112.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199819%8%31%.281
Sep 149419%11%29%.312
Sep 110427%10%18%.184

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Burke CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kyle Karros: every projection we've made →