MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CWS · batting 1Sam Antonacci
Bats leftTalent grade BContactHot
.323wOBA vs RHP.318xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · COLTomoyuki Sugano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
4.1projected K16%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Splitter: 22% usage, 86.9 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .285 vs league .286 (about even).Splitter 22%Fastball: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +5.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .364 vs league .365 (about even).Fastball 20%Sinker: 19% usage, 93.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +9.6″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .359 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 19%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .346 vs league .347 (about even).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 83.7 mph, -9.3″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .323 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 11%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.9 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -9.4″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .312 vs league .314 (about even).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 86.2 mph, -3.5″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Sam Antonacci: wOBA .324 vs league .325 (about even).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Sam Antonacci's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Sam Antonacci's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 84.9 mph at 2°Single: 88.3 mph at 9°Single: 97.9 mph at 14°Single: 95.8 mph at 13°Out: 91.8 mph at 35°Single: 100.6 mph at 13°Out: 77.1 mph at -12°Single: 95.3 mph at -2°Out: 62.9 mph at 39°Single: 101.9 mph at 13°Out: 99.2 mph at 28°Out: 101.1 mph at -6°Out: 87.4 mph at 25°Double: 96.3 mph at 7°Out: 94.4 mph at 0°Out: 90.8 mph at 33°Single: 101.8 mph at 10°Out: 94.8 mph at 36°Out: 84.6 mph at -7°Out: 81.3 mph at -13°Out: 97.2 mph at -7°Out: 63.7 mph at -84°Out: 96.1 mph at 40°Out: 99.5 mph at 25°Single: 89.7 mph at 6°Single: 89.3 mph at 18°Out: 58.7 mph at 26°Out: 98.1 mph at 16°Out: 90.2 mph at -24°Single: 96.5 mph at -7°Triple: 100.2 mph at 13°Out: 92.2 mph at -24°Out: 102.2 mph at 7°Out: 96.7 mph at 26°Single: 92.9 mph at 13°Out: 89.9 mph at 3°Out: 95.8 mph at -19°Single: 72.1 mph at 37°Single: 67.4 mph at 29°Out: 74.7 mph at 88°
45% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit69.1%64.4%+4.7
2+ total bases42.2%37.1%+5.1
Home run10.8%7.8%+3.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+4.2
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+4.4
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+2.6
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Sam Antonacci hits
Sam Antonacci · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .430 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 49 pitches seen.363xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .288 on 18 PA) · league .307 · 43 pitches seen.296xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .178 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 18 pitches seen.235xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .264 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 62 pitches seen.296xwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .323 on 29 PA) · league .386 · 77 pitches seen.341xwOBA .362 shrunk (raw .385 on 22 PA) · league .321 · 42 pitches seen.362xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .259 on 19 PA) · league .308 · 57 pitches seen.278xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .265 on 19 PA) · league .351 · 60 pitches seen.298xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .249 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 40 pitches seen.269xwOBA .426 shrunk (raw .461 on 17 PA) · league .377 · 144 pitches seen.426xwOBA .288 shrunk (raw .320 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 27 pitches seen.288xwOBA .223 shrunk (raw .204 on 25 PA) · league .263 · 141 pitches seen.223xwOBA .398 shrunk (raw .447 on 30 PA) · league .274 · 152 pitches seen.398
vs RHP · 912 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 8% of 39 swings · league 22%8%Whiff 11% of 37 swings · league 20%11%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 19%10%Whiff 7% of 46 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 5% of 60 swings · league 9%5%Whiff 0% of 35 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 4% of 24 swings · league 14%4%Whiff 8% of 36 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 9% of 23 swings · league 17%9%Whiff 22% of 18 swings · league 28%22%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 24%14%Whiff 16% of 31 swings · league 32%16%Whiff 35% of 34 swings · league 49%35%
vs RHP · 912 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 80% of 49 pitches · league 62%80%Swings at 86% of 43 pitches · league 72%86%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 66%56%Swings at 74% of 62 pitches · league 70%74%Swings at 78% of 77 pitches · league 76%78%Swings at 83% of 42 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 42% of 57 pitches · league 65%42%Swings at 60% of 60 pitches · league 68%60%Swings at 57% of 40 pitches · league 60%57%Swings at 13% of 144 pitches · league 24%13%Swings at 52% of 27 pitches · league 34%52%Swings at 22% of 141 pitches · league 40%22%Swings at 22% of 152 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 912 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Sam Antonacci against each of Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Splitter22%86.9+10″ / +5″.285.28617.0%27.3%31About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball20%93.1+6″ / +14″.364.3658.8%15.2%82About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker19%93.0+13″ / +10″.359.3608.0%13.8%67About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter12%89.0-1″ / +5″.346.34714.2%23.3%48About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper11%83.7-9″ / +1″.323.32411.0%24.6%22About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball10%79.9-6″ / -9″.312.31412.3%26.9%14About league average vs these
Slider8%86.2-4″ / +1″.324.32513.1%28.2%29About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Sam Antonacci · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.444.476.500.426.4610.0%4.8%0.0%91.2101.95.3%47.4%42.1%
Last 15 G1545.381.400.452.374.4084.4%2.2%5.8%90.1103.04.9%43.9%41.5%
Last 30 G30103.311.388.422.369.3639.7%8.7%10.1%88.4103.03.7%32.1%40.7%
90 days73238.254.338.388.332.32413.4%8.4%10.6%88.2107.33.4%32.4%35.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 179 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 20%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.1600.0%0.0%25.0%96.4101.10.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G611.111.273.111.209.31518.2%0.0%15.8%85.0101.10.0%42.9%42.9%
Last 30 G1116.231.375.231.300.29918.8%6.2%13.0%81.6101.10.0%30.0%40.0%
90 days3658.286.397.327.338.31819.0%6.9%13.8%81.0102.40.0%23.7%44.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 38 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.400.435.450.389.4350.0%4.3%3.2%91.7101.94.8%47.6%38.1%
Last 15 G1556.333.375.392.342.3907.1%1.8%8.0%89.3103.04.2%43.8%41.7%
Last 30 G30119.301.387.398.360.35410.9%8.4%10.5%87.7103.03.3%31.9%40.7%
90 days75296.260.349.376.333.32314.5%8.1%11.2%87.0107.32.8%30.9%37.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 217 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 21%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 2%
Sam Antonacci · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating57Average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.327 / .324results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter88.584.92.284Out
Sep 25RHPSplitter87.588.39.488Single
Sep 25RHPFastball94.597.914.873Single
Sep 25RHPFastball92.995.813.907Single
Sep 24LHPFastball95.291.835.063Out
Sep 24RHPFastball89.2100.613.915Single
Sep 24RHPCutter89.577.1-12.054Out
Sep 24RHPSinker91.295.3-2.299Single
Sep 24RHPFastball93.862.939.350Out
Sep 23RHPSinker91.3101.913.892Single
Sep 23RHPFastball99.299.228.780Out
Sep 23LHPSinker90.1101.1-6.258Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25433000
Sep 24622010
Sep 23511000
Sep 20423000
Sep 19400000
Sep 18200000
Sep 16100000
Sep 15422001
Sep 14311000
Sep 13413000

Two strikes

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPwith two strikes
Tomoyuki Sugano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter22%28%24.1%16.5%19.0%
Fastball20%22%19.4%16.9%18.0%
Sinker19%15%11.8%11.1%17.0%
Curveball10%12%20.8%13.9%20.0%
Slider8%12%15.0%14.3%21.1%
Cutter12%6%12.5%10.5%17.9%
Sweeper11%6%12.5%5.6%19.3%
Sam Antonacci bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Sam Antonacci with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%32.9%41.0%
Whiff%15.9%21.3%
Contact%84.1%78.7%
Chase%34.3%39.6%
wOBA.263.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.6%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.323
K%15.8%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%5.7%
Barrel%2.7%
Hard-hit%22.8%
Avg EV87.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

238 PA
wOBA.323
xwOBA vs this mix.318against pitches like his
RV/1000.00
Hard-hit%24.0%
K%14.5%
BB%8.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL vs CWS
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 40.8%41%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 16.0%16%56 strikeouts: 11.1%11%67 strikeouts: 6.6%7%78 strikeouts: 3.4%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.7%3%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.8%
BB%4.8%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Splitter22%7386.915.5%
Fastball20%9493.08.3%
Sinker19%7492.93.5%
Cutter12%11489.15.0%
Sweeper11%8583.79.6%
Curveball10%7980.011.8%
Slider8%8886.06.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207229%13%41%.135
Sep 14889%8%39%.454
Sep 99920%15%24%.330

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Sam Antonacci: every projection we've made →