MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · OAK · batting 6Donovan Walton
Bats leftTalent grade CContactCold
.366wOBA vs RHP.336xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · HOUHunter Brown
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.1projected K27%K%2.2trips vs this hitter
Hunter Brown's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 31% usage, 96.2 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +10.9″ rise. Donovan Walton: wOBA .366 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 31%Fastball: 30% usage, 96.3 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Donovan Walton: wOBA .362 vs league .348 (about even).Fastball 30%Curveball: 19% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.1″ arm side, -16.4″ rise. Donovan Walton: wOBA .309 vs league .296 (about even).Curveball 19%Changeup: 10% usage, 87.5 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Donovan Walton: wOBA .292 vs league .279 (about even).Changeup 10%Slider: 9% usage, 91.2 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +5.6″ rise. Donovan Walton: wOBA .365 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Donovan Walton's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Donovan Walton's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 38.4 mph at -62°Out: 96.1 mph at 36°Single: 74.5 mph at 18°Out: 73.6 mph at 2°Out: 81.0 mph at -5°Home run: 89.8 mph at 39°Out: 89.2 mph at 56°Single: 93.2 mph at 6°Home run: 99.0 mph at 28°Single: 70.3 mph at 41°Single: 101.6 mph at -1°Out: 70.9 mph at 3°Out: 85.7 mph at 51°Out: 82.3 mph at 4°Out: 61.0 mph at -31°Out: 97.3 mph at 0°Out: 65.3 mph at 7°Out: 76.0 mph at 39°Out: 87.8 mph at 20°Out: 98.4 mph at 6°Out: 83.8 mph at 38°Double: 73.2 mph at 8°Out: 90.8 mph at 30°Out: 72.1 mph at -19°Out: 97.8 mph at 1°Single: 98.3 mph at 15°Out: 90.6 mph at 32°Single: 98.8 mph at 12°Out: 69.9 mph at 48°Home run: 97.5 mph at 33°Out: 86.2 mph at 29°Out: 65.3 mph at -46°Home run: 104.9 mph at 25°Out: 91.5 mph at 10°Single: 90.1 mph at -3°Out: 77.0 mph at 8°Out: 96.1 mph at 23°Out: 90.8 mph at 37°Out: 90.4 mph at 6°Double: 88.3 mph at 17°
28% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.4%57.5%+0.9
2+ total bases32.8%31.2%+1.6
Home run10.0%8.8%+1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.4
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+2.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+2.6
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+1.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Donovan Walton hits
Donovan Walton · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .607 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 21 pitches seen.357xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .342 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 15 pitches seen.319xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .335 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 15 pitches seen.281xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .368 on 16 PA) · league .342 · 52 pitches seen.357xwOBA .397 shrunk (raw .406 on 15 PA) · league .386 · 37 pitches seen.397xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .268 on 13 PA) · league .321 · 26 pitches seen.293xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .291 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 28 pitches seen.300xwOBA .362 shrunk (raw .380 on 7 PA) · league .351 · 32 pitches seen.362xwOBA .204 shrunk (raw .129 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 42 pitches seen.204xwOBA .421 shrunk (raw .458 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 84 pitches seen.421xwOBA .406 shrunk (raw .583 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 34 pitches seen.406xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .234 on 18 PA) · league .263 · 107 pitches seen.246xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .357 on 31 PA) · league .274 · 145 pitches seen.334
vs RHP · 638 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 12 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 20%7%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 19%10%Whiff 13% of 39 swings · league 10%13%Whiff 10% of 31 swings · league 9%10%Whiff 0% of 17 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 9% of 22 swings · league 14%9%Whiff 14% of 28 swings · league 13%14%Whiff 24% of 34 swings · league 17%24%Whiff 28% of 18 swings · league 28%28%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 25% of 32 swings · league 32%25%Whiff 71% of 45 swings · league 49%71%
vs RHP · 638 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 57% of 21 pitches · league 62%57%Swings at 93% of 15 pitches · league 72%93%Swings at 67% of 15 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 75% of 52 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 84% of 37 pitches · league 76%84%Swings at 65% of 26 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 79% of 28 pitches · league 65%79%Swings at 88% of 32 pitches · league 68%88%Swings at 81% of 42 pitches · league 60%81%Swings at 21% of 84 pitches · league 24%21%Swings at 24% of 34 pitches · league 34%24%Swings at 30% of 107 pitches · league 40%30%Swings at 31% of 145 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 638 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Donovan Walton against each of Hunter Brown's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker31%96.2+16″ / +11″.366.35211.5%15.6%43About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball30%96.3+9″ / +16″.362.34813.4%17.6%41About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball19%83.6-6″ / -16″.309.29638.2%32.5%12About league average vs these
Changeup10%87.5+14″ / +5″.292.27931.4%27.1%10About league average vs these
Slider9%91.2-4″ / +6″.365.35225.1%21.1%26About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Donovan Walton · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.250.308.500.362.21435.7%7.1%30.8%79.596.10.0%12.5%12.5%
Last 15 G1545.286.318.595.390.29120.0%4.4%22.2%83.7104.95.9%26.5%32.4%
Last 30 G3093.260.380.532.395.35417.2%11.8%26.8%84.9104.96.5%30.6%38.7%
90 days57163.252.395.458.379.34516.0%14.7%23.5%85.6104.94.7%30.2%42.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 106 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11–1.000–.700.6980.0%100.0%50.0%–––––
Last 15 G22.000.500.000.350.5470.0%50.0%40.0%97.897.80.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 30 G55.000.200.000.140.3110.0%20.0%40.0%88.497.80.0%50.0%25.0%
90 days910.000.111.000.100.24510.0%10.0%28.6%78.397.80.0%37.5%12.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 8 balls in play
Ground 63%Line drive 13%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.250.357.500.386.24833.3%13.3%33.3%79.596.10.0%12.5%12.5%
Last 15 G1547.279.326.581.388.30219.1%6.4%23.3%84.1104.95.7%28.6%31.4%
Last 30 G3098.247.371.506.382.35216.3%12.2%27.5%85.1104.96.1%31.8%37.9%
90 days57173.237.380.432.364.34015.6%14.5%23.9%85.1104.94.4%30.7%40.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 114 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 22%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 7%
Donovan Walton · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating76Above average
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.357 / .343results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter92.938.4-62–Sac bunt
Sep 25RHPFastball94.596.136.249Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup86.974.518.864Single
Sep 24RHPSlider86.473.62.094Out
Sep 23RHPSinker99.381.0-5.156Out
Sep 23RHPSinker100.489.839.032Home run
Sep 22RHPSlider84.489.256.009Out
Sep 20RHPFastball98.893.26.477Single
Sep 19RHPSweeper81.599.028.780Home run
Sep 19RHPFastball94.270.341.443Single
Sep 19RHPCutter87.4101.6-1.428Single
Sep 18RHPSlider90.670.93.112Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400011
Sep 24311001
Sep 23314110
Sep 22100000
Sep 20411003
Sep 19336100
Sep 18100000
Sep 17300000
Sep 16400001
Sep 15200001

Two strikes

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPwith two strikes
Hunter Brown with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%28%22.7%21.1%18.0%
Curveball19%28%42.2%23.8%20.0%
Sinker31%25%13.4%20.4%17.0%
Slider9%10%12.0%19.5%21.1%
Changeup10%7%35.7%16.7%18.6%
Sweeper1%1%50.0%20.0%19.3%
Cutter2%1%100.0%33.3%17.9%
Donovan Walton bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Donovan Walton with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.1%41.0%
Whiff%19.3%21.3%
Contact%80.7%78.7%
Chase%32.7%39.6%
wOBA.269.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.6%21.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCContact type
wOBA.322
K%17.6%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%11.6%
Barrel%3.5%
Hard-hit%22.2%
Avg EV86.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

162 PA
wOBA.366
xwOBA vs this mix.336against pitches like his
RV/1001.07
Hard-hit%19.9%
K%17.3%
BB%13.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Hunter BrownRHP · HOU vs OAK
6.1projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.4 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 14.9%15%≤34 strikeouts: 13.1%13%45 strikeouts: 15.9%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.8%14%78 strikeouts: 10.4%10%89+ strikeouts: 16.0%16%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.5%
BB%11.5%
Whiff%11.0%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker31%11596.29.0%
Fastball30%8996.28.1%
Curveball19%9583.516.3%
Changeup10%9187.514.8%
Slider9%10291.09.9%
Cutter2%10293.017.4%
Sweeper1%7687.520.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209848%17%19%.238
Sep 159150%15%15%.212
Sep 99033%11%24%.352

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPvsOAK lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Donovan Walton: every projection we've made →