MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · OAK · batting 4Jeff McNeil
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedCold
.342wOBA vs RHP.310xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · HOUHunter Brown
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.1projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Hunter Brown's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 31% usage, 96.2 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +10.9″ rise. Jeff McNeil: wOBA .359 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 31%Fastball: 30% usage, 96.3 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Jeff McNeil: wOBA .354 vs league .348 (about even).Fastball 30%Curveball: 19% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.1″ arm side, -16.4″ rise. Jeff McNeil: wOBA .302 vs league .296 (about even).Curveball 19%Changeup: 10% usage, 87.5 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Jeff McNeil: wOBA .285 vs league .279 (about even).Changeup 10%Slider: 9% usage, 91.2 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +5.6″ rise. Jeff McNeil: wOBA .358 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jeff McNeil's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jeff McNeil's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 92.4 mph at 14°Out: 87.9 mph at 34°Out: 90.3 mph at 24°Home run: 98.4 mph at 37°Double: 82.6 mph at 14°Out: 82.8 mph at -36°Out: 90.9 mph at 48°Out: 84.9 mph at 9°Single: 99.0 mph at 0°Out: 28.1 mph at -42°Out: 66.5 mph at -29°Single: 64.0 mph at 16°Out: 97.6 mph at -11°Out: 70.6 mph at 77°Out: 97.3 mph at 3°Out: 79.2 mph at 75°Out: 93.2 mph at 25°Single: 56.1 mph at 22°Out: 85.1 mph at 33°Out: 104.4 mph at 0°Out: 77.9 mph at -6°Out: 92.7 mph at -16°Single: 69.8 mph at -1°Double: 97.9 mph at 21°Out: 97.3 mph at 18°Single: 101.1 mph at 16°Out: 90.3 mph at 44°Out: 91.1 mph at -11°Out: 72.0 mph at -4°Out: 89.4 mph at 3°Out: 91.0 mph at 33°Single: 50.6 mph at 17°Out: 83.5 mph at 28°Out: 58.6 mph at -46°Out: 69.4 mph at 16°Single: 88.6 mph at 21°Out: 84.1 mph at 39°Double: 101.7 mph at 18°Out: 100.2 mph at -3°Single: 97.4 mph at 14°
28% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit72.0%70.9%+1.1
2+ total bases41.4%39.5%+1.9
Home run8.2%6.9%+1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+2.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+2.7
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jeff McNeil hits
Jeff McNeil · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .312 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 14 pitches seen.282xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw .383 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 28 pitches seen.340xwOBA .238 shrunk (raw .088 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 12 pitches seen.238xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .227 on 16 PA) · league .342 · 41 pitches seen.276xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .290 on 26 PA) · league .386 · 44 pitches seen.320xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .374 on 14 PA) · league .321 · 28 pitches seen.350xwOBA .425 shrunk (raw .507 on 17 PA) · league .308 · 35 pitches seen.425xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .342 on 16 PA) · league .351 · 37 pitches seen.346xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .229 on 12 PA) · league .292 · 34 pitches seen.261xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .314 on 18 PA) · league .377 · 95 pitches seen.339xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .070 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 28 pitches seen.245xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .279 on 31 PA) · league .263 · 101 pitches seen.275xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .298 on 20 PA) · league .274 · 109 pitches seen.289
vs RHP · 606 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 4% of 25 swings · league 20%4%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 3% of 37 swings · league 10%3%Whiff 2% of 42 swings · league 9%2%Whiff 0% of 25 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 11% of 27 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 8% of 37 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 0% of 29 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 30% of 30 swings · league 28%30%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 24%14%Whiff 21% of 57 swings · league 32%21%Whiff 34% of 50 swings · league 49%34%
vs RHP · 606 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 14 pitches · league 62%64%Swings at 89% of 28 pitches · league 72%89%Swings at 100% of 12 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 90% of 41 pitches · league 70%90%Swings at 96% of 44 pitches · league 76%96%Swings at 89% of 28 pitches · league 70%89%Swings at 77% of 35 pitches · league 65%77%Swings at 100% of 37 pitches · league 68%100%Swings at 85% of 34 pitches · league 60%85%Swings at 32% of 95 pitches · league 24%32%Swings at 25% of 28 pitches · league 34%25%Swings at 56% of 101 pitches · league 40%56%Swings at 46% of 109 pitches · league 32%46%
vs RHP · 606 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jeff McNeil against each of Hunter Brown's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker31%96.2+16″ / +11″.359.3528.4%15.6%46About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball30%96.3+9″ / +16″.354.3489.5%17.6%53About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball19%83.6-6″ / -16″.302.29622.2%32.5%4Little history vs this shape
Changeup10%87.5+14″ / +5″.285.27917.9%27.1%17About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider9%91.2-4″ / +6″.358.35213.5%21.1%26About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jeff McNeil · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.455.500.818.629.3068.3%8.3%13.0%85.599.00.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1548.261.292.391.336.24610.4%4.2%12.2%86.5108.40.0%31.7%34.1%
Last 30 G3098.274.296.432.334.27412.2%3.1%13.6%86.6108.41.2%26.5%39.8%
90 days65186.299.319.458.347.3139.7%3.2%12.4%87.4108.43.1%29.8%40.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 161 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 29%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.000.200.000.140.27140.0%20.0%35.3%56.584.90.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G710.222.300.222.250.23320.0%10.0%25.0%69.9100.20.0%14.3%57.1%
Last 30 G1527.333.407.375.357.27511.1%7.4%13.8%80.9100.20.0%23.8%42.9%
90 days3259.309.356.364.325.25010.2%5.1%15.7%83.5104.60.0%24.5%34.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 49 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.333.412.600.485.29517.6%11.8%22.5%80.799.00.0%16.7%41.7%
Last 15 G1558.255.293.364.322.24312.1%5.2%15.1%84.1108.40.0%29.2%37.5%
Last 30 G30125.286.320.420.339.27412.0%4.0%13.7%85.5108.41.0%26.0%40.4%
90 days66245.302.328.435.341.2989.8%3.7%13.1%86.5108.42.4%28.6%39.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 210 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 27%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 9%
Jeff McNeil · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating40Below average
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.335 / .306running 28 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter93.292.414.889Single
Sep 25RHPFastball95.687.934.030Out
Sep 25RHPFastball95.890.324.130Out
Sep 24RHPFastball94.798.437.297Home run
Sep 24RHPCutter90.282.614.855Double
Sep 24RHPCutter86.482.8-36.042Out
Sep 23RHPSinker97.990.948.000Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.184.99.405Out
Sep 23RHPSlider86.099.00.428Single
Sep 23LHPSweeper79.128.1-42.252Out
Sep 22RHPSlider84.766.5-29.047Fielder's choice
Sep 20RHPFastball95.864.016.252Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 24426101
Sep 23511010
Sep 22300011
Sep 20111000
Sep 19500001
Sep 18411000
Sep 17300001
Sep 16323001
Sep 15411001

Two strikes

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPwith two strikes
Hunter Brown with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%28%22.7%21.1%18.0%
Curveball19%28%42.2%23.8%20.0%
Sinker31%25%13.4%20.4%17.0%
Slider9%10%12.0%19.5%21.1%
Changeup10%7%35.7%16.7%18.6%
Sweeper1%1%50.0%20.0%19.3%
Cutter2%1%100.0%33.3%17.9%
Jeff McNeil bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jeff McNeil with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%32.0%41.0%
Whiff%17.8%21.3%
Contact%82.2%78.7%
Chase%42.8%39.6%
wOBA.226.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.2%21.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.336
K%10.3%
BB%5.3%
Whiff%8.8%
Barrel%2.6%
Hard-hit%24.6%
Avg EV86.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

184 PA
wOBA.342
xwOBA vs this mix.310against pitches like his
RV/1000.27
Hard-hit%25.9%
K%10.6%
BB%3.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Hunter BrownRHP · HOU vs OAK
6.1projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.4 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 14.9%15%≤34 strikeouts: 13.1%13%45 strikeouts: 15.9%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.8%14%78 strikeouts: 10.4%10%89+ strikeouts: 16.0%16%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.5%
BB%11.5%
Whiff%11.0%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker31%11596.29.0%
Fastball30%8996.28.1%
Curveball19%9583.516.3%
Changeup10%9187.514.8%
Slider9%10291.09.9%
Cutter2%10293.017.4%
Sweeper1%7687.520.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209848%17%19%.238
Sep 159150%15%15%.212
Sep 99033%11%24%.352

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPvsOAK lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jeff McNeil: every projection we've made →