MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · OAK · batting 8Tommy White
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.263wOBA vs RHP.302xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · HOUHunter Brown
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.1projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Hunter Brown's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 31% usage, 96.2 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +10.9″ rise. Tommy White: wOBA .333 vs league .347 (about even).Sinker 31%Fastball: 30% usage, 96.3 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Tommy White: wOBA .337 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 30%Curveball: 19% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.1″ arm side, -16.4″ rise. Tommy White: wOBA .259 vs league .273 (about even).Curveball 19%Changeup: 10% usage, 87.5 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Tommy White: wOBA .257 vs league .271 (about even).Changeup 10%Slider: 9% usage, 91.2 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +5.6″ rise. Tommy White: wOBA .302 vs league .316 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Tommy White's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Tommy White's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 102.1 mph at 28°Single: 97.3 mph at -17°Single: 70.7 mph at 18°Single: 107.3 mph at 7°Out: 100.7 mph at -7°Out: 88.5 mph at -10°Out: 71.5 mph at -20°Out: 83.4 mph at 42°Out: 95.1 mph at 34°Out: 97.7 mph at -2°Out: 84.6 mph at 7°Out: 73.0 mph at -4°Out: 73.7 mph at -37°Single: 78.3 mph at 20°Home run: 92.2 mph at 39°Single: 100.6 mph at -11°Out: 63.0 mph at -26°Out: 88.6 mph at -19°Out: 82.3 mph at -23°Single: 105.5 mph at 11°Out: 71.2 mph at -62°Out: 71.0 mph at -8°Single: 95.1 mph at 9°Out: 94.4 mph at 19°Out: 83.1 mph at 41°Out: 100.7 mph at 22°Out: 57.9 mph at -45°Out: 91.5 mph at 3°Out: 98.9 mph at -22°Out: 76.5 mph at -7°Out: 78.4 mph at 38°Double: 83.0 mph at 33°Out: 96.5 mph at 35°Out: 72.0 mph at 43°Out: 88.1 mph at -20°Out: 84.5 mph at 1°Out: 96.9 mph at -20°Out: 88.3 mph at 32°Single: 90.5 mph at 14°Single: 100.1 mph at 5°
35% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.5%59.9%-0.4
2+ total bases33.0%32.9%+0.1
Home run8.8%8.6%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+2.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+2.5
Home run
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Tommy White hits
Tommy White · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .362 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 14 pitches seen.303xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .369 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 21 pitches seen.332xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .319 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.279xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .307 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 23 pitches seen.323xwOBA .508 shrunk (raw .691 on 8 PA) · league .386 · 30 pitches seen.508xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .461 on 9 PA) · league .321 · 22 pitches seen.381xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .367 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 15 pitches seen.328xwOBA .362 shrunk (raw .378 on 8 PA) · league .351 · 19 pitches seen.362xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .256 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 30 pitches seen.276xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .174 on 4 PA) · league .377 · 34 pitches seen.326xwOBA .221 shrunk (raw .116 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 39 pitches seen.221xwOBA .173 shrunk (raw .064 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 33 pitches seen.173xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .242 on 28 PA) · league .274 · 145 pitches seen.252
vs RHP · 444 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 20%6%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 19%27%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 9%5%Whiff 25% of 16 swings · league 11%25%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 17%7%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 28%18%Whiff 36% of 11 swings · league 24%36%Whiff 29% of 21 swings · league 32%29%Whiff 40% of 52 swings · league 49%40%
vs RHP · 444 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 62%57%Swings at 81% of 21 pitches · league 72%81%Swings at 58% of 19 pitches · league 66%58%Swings at 83% of 23 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 73% of 30 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 73% of 22 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 47% of 15 pitches · league 65%47%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 68%68%Swings at 50% of 30 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 50% of 34 pitches · league 24%50%Swings at 28% of 39 pitches · league 34%28%Swings at 64% of 33 pitches · league 40%64%Swings at 36% of 145 pitches · league 32%36%
vs RHP · 444 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Tommy White against each of Hunter Brown's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker31%96.2+16″ / +11″.333.3479.3%11.6%36About league average vs these
Fastball30%96.3+9″ / +16″.337.35114.9%18.5%31About league average vs these
Curveball19%83.6-6″ / -16″.259.27329.9%31.4%4Little history vs this shape
Changeup10%87.5+14″ / +5″.257.27130.7%32.8%5Little history vs this shape
Slider9%91.2-4″ / +6″.302.31624.5%26.0%20About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Tommy White · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G27.000.000.000.000.29028.6%0.0%28.6%90.7102.125.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G826.200.231.320.252.29019.2%3.8%21.8%84.4105.55.3%31.6%26.3%
Last 30 G2271.221.239.397.275.31818.3%2.8%22.9%84.7106.212.7%29.1%36.4%
90 days42123.218.236.336.250.30615.4%2.4%20.5%84.6106.29.0%26.0%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 100 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 23%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G45.600.600.600.540.28240.0%0.0%27.3%91.8107.30.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1011.273.273.273.245.21918.2%0.0%16.0%90.8107.30.0%44.4%22.2%
Last 30 G1827.308.333.308.293.28918.5%3.7%17.7%92.9107.80.0%52.4%33.3%
90 days3468.303.324.303.285.26820.6%2.9%19.9%88.5108.01.9%46.2%26.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 52 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 27%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.250.250.250.245.28733.3%0.0%28.0%91.2107.314.3%57.1%28.6%
Last 15 G1537.222.243.306.250.26818.9%2.7%20.0%86.5107.33.6%35.7%25.0%
Last 30 G3098.245.265.372.280.31018.4%3.1%21.3%87.0107.89.2%35.5%35.5%
90 days54191.249.267.324.263.29217.3%2.6%20.3%85.9108.06.6%32.9%33.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 152 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 4%
Tommy White · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating37Below average
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.267 / .303running 35 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper85.8102.1281.330Out
Sep 25LHPFastball92.597.3-17.146Single
Sep 22LHPSplitter87.370.718.681Single
Sep 22LHPSlider89.1107.37.585Single
Sep 20RHPSinker96.9100.7-7.231Out
Sep 20RHPSinker98.988.5-10.144Out
Sep 20RHPSlider89.371.5-20.035Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball79.883.442.005Out
Sep 18LHPCurveball82.695.134.149Out
Sep 18LHPChangeup82.697.7-2.342Double play
Sep 17RHPSinker94.684.67.427Force out
Sep 17RHPCutter91.873.0-4.062Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411002
Sep 24100001
Sep 23100001
Sep 22222000
Sep 20400000
Sep 19100000
Sep 18300010
Sep 17400001
Sep 16436100
Sep 15100000

Two strikes

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPwith two strikes
Hunter Brown with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%28%22.7%21.1%18.0%
Curveball19%28%42.2%23.8%20.0%
Sinker31%25%13.4%20.4%17.0%
Slider9%10%12.0%19.5%21.1%
Changeup10%7%35.7%16.7%18.6%
Sweeper1%1%50.0%20.0%19.3%
Cutter2%1%100.0%33.3%17.9%
Tommy White bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Tommy White with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%34.8%42.4%
Whiff%20.1%22.2%
Contact%79.9%77.8%
Chase%46.9%39.9%
wOBA.232.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.5%21.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.288
K%18.0%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%25.8%
Avg EV86.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

120 PA
wOBA.263
xwOBA vs this mix.302against pitches like his
RV/100-1.75
Hard-hit%21.9%
K%15.3%
BB%2.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Hunter BrownRHP · HOU vs OAK
6.1projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.4 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 14.9%15%≤34 strikeouts: 13.1%13%45 strikeouts: 15.9%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.8%14%78 strikeouts: 10.4%10%89+ strikeouts: 16.0%16%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.5%
BB%11.5%
Whiff%11.0%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker31%11596.29.0%
Fastball30%8996.28.1%
Curveball19%9583.516.3%
Changeup10%9187.514.8%
Slider9%10291.09.9%
Cutter2%10293.017.4%
Sweeper1%7687.520.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209848%17%19%.238
Sep 159150%15%15%.212
Sep 99033%11%24%.352

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPvsOAK lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Tommy White: every projection we've made →