MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · OAK · batting 5Zack Gelof
Bats rightTalent grade CPowerHot
.332wOBA vs RHP.356xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · HOUHunter Brown
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.1projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Hunter Brown's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 31% usage, 96.2 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +10.9″ rise. Zack Gelof: wOBA .350 vs league .347 (about even).Sinker 31%Fastball: 30% usage, 96.3 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Zack Gelof: wOBA .354 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 30%Curveball: 19% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.1″ arm side, -16.4″ rise. Zack Gelof: wOBA .276 vs league .273 (about even).Curveball 19%Changeup: 10% usage, 87.5 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Zack Gelof: wOBA .275 vs league .271 (about even).Changeup 10%Slider: 9% usage, 91.2 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +5.6″ rise. Zack Gelof: wOBA .319 vs league .316 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Zack Gelof's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Zack Gelof's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.1 mph at -4°Out: 101.2 mph at -4°Out: 58.4 mph at 5°Home run: 101.8 mph at 26°Out: 86.8 mph at 51°Home run: 103.1 mph at 25°Single: 87.0 mph at 1°Out: 53.0 mph at 79°Double: 87.4 mph at 24°Out: 80.9 mph at 84°Out: 96.5 mph at 0°Home run: 101.9 mph at 31°Out: 104.8 mph at 30°Out: 99.4 mph at 27°Single: 102.9 mph at 13°Single: 84.7 mph at -6°Single: 90.1 mph at 8°Out: 76.2 mph at -39°Single: 98.2 mph at 4°Out: 83.5 mph at 29°Out: 99.5 mph at -6°Home run: 103.8 mph at 25°Out: 92.6 mph at 56°Single: 82.3 mph at 17°Out: 94.7 mph at 8°Out: 98.3 mph at -34°Out: 98.0 mph at 49°Out: 92.7 mph at 69°Out: 103.3 mph at 33°Out: 93.5 mph at -11°Out: 92.6 mph at 54°Out: 86.6 mph at 6°Home run: 106.4 mph at 31°Single: 104.1 mph at 7°Out: 74.7 mph at -2°Out: 109.0 mph at 4°Out: 89.5 mph at -28°Out: 108.8 mph at -18°Single: 75.1 mph at 27°Out: 80.1 mph at 40°
48% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.4%60.4%+0.0
2+ total bases37.1%36.5%+0.7
Home run17.1%16.6%+0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-3.7
Pitch mix
+1.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+2.7
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.4
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+3.2
Home run
Starter
-2.3
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+2.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Zack Gelof hits
Zack Gelof · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .222 shrunk (raw .169 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 29 pitches seen.222xwOBA .440 shrunk (raw .639 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 25 pitches seen.440xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .156 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 23 pitches seen.227xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .220 on 10 PA) · league .342 · 24 pitches seen.287xwOBA .392 shrunk (raw .400 on 9 PA) · league .386 · 32 pitches seen.392xwOBA .380 shrunk (raw .438 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 38 pitches seen.380xwOBA .404 shrunk (raw .509 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 21 pitches seen.404xwOBA .538 shrunk (raw .687 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 34 pitches seen.538xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .197 on 11 PA) · league .292 · 34 pitches seen.247xwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .374 on 16 PA) · league .377 · 68 pitches seen.375xwOBA .420 shrunk (raw .859 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 34 pitches seen.420xwOBA .232 shrunk (raw .198 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 64 pitches seen.232xwOBA .201 shrunk (raw .157 on 20 PA) · league .274 · 150 pitches seen.201
vs RHP · 576 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 42% of 24 swings · league 22%42%Whiff 35% of 20 swings · league 20%35%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 19%23%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 28% of 25 swings · league 9%28%Whiff 25% of 28 swings · league 11%25%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 0% of 22 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 33% of 18 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 28%39%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 42% of 19 swings · league 32%42%Whiff 53% of 40 swings · league 49%53%
vs RHP · 576 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 83% of 29 pitches · league 62%83%Swings at 80% of 25 pitches · league 72%80%Swings at 56% of 23 pitches · league 66%56%Swings at 75% of 24 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 78% of 32 pitches · league 76%78%Swings at 74% of 38 pitches · league 70%74%Swings at 76% of 21 pitches · league 65%76%Swings at 65% of 34 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 53% of 34 pitches · league 60%53%Swings at 27% of 68 pitches · league 24%27%Swings at 21% of 34 pitches · league 34%21%Swings at 30% of 64 pitches · league 40%30%Swings at 27% of 150 pitches · league 32%27%
vs RHP · 576 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Zack Gelof against each of Hunter Brown's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker31%96.2+16″ / +11″.350.34716.3%11.6%46About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball30%96.3+9″ / +16″.354.35126.4%18.5%38About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball19%83.6-6″ / -16″.276.27335.2%31.4%5Little history vs this shape
Changeup10%87.5+14″ / +5″.275.27139.5%32.8%7Little history vs this shape
Slider9%91.2-4″ / +6″.319.31629.2%26.0%18About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Zack Gelof · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.333.429.583.500.5227.1%7.1%29.2%88.8104.827.3%54.5%36.4%
Last 15 G1447.233.298.442.348.38423.4%6.4%28.0%92.3109.019.4%51.6%25.8%
Last 30 G2895.224.298.412.335.37424.2%7.4%33.1%90.6109.016.1%48.4%30.6%
90 days44147.220.295.424.329.35824.5%7.5%29.5%88.7109.014.6%44.8%30.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 96 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 15%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.600.7142.000.950.6520.0%14.3%14.3%94.0103.140.0%60.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1015.333.467.917.610.4586.7%13.3%20.7%91.5103.118.2%36.4%54.5%
Last 30 G1734.300.382.767.497.40817.6%8.8%21.2%91.7105.420.8%50.0%41.7%
90 days2752.244.346.556.400.34723.1%11.5%27.1%89.1106.218.2%42.4%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 33 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 3%Fly ball 42%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.412.5241.000.650.5654.8%9.5%23.7%90.4104.831.2%56.2%43.8%
Last 15 G1562.255.339.545.412.40219.4%8.1%26.1%92.1109.019.0%47.6%33.3%
Last 30 G30129.243.320.504.379.38322.5%7.8%29.9%90.9109.017.4%48.8%33.7%
90 days47199.226.308.458.348.35524.1%8.5%28.8%88.8109.015.5%44.2%31.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 129 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 12%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 12%
Zack Gelof · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating89Excellent
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.343 / .364running 21 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper85.797.1-4.299Fielder's choice
Sep 25RHPSinker97.4101.2-4.361Out
Sep 25RHPSinker95.258.45.130Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup87.4101.8261.262Home run
Sep 24RHPCutter86.986.851.003Out
Sep 24LHPSlider85.4103.1251.331Home run
Sep 23RHPSinker98.787.01.271Single
Sep 23RHPCutter87.153.079.010Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup77.787.424.157Double
Sep 22LHPCurveball79.080.984.003Out
Sep 22LHPSlider86.996.50.433Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper78.8101.9311.215Home run
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400001
Sep 24428210
Sep 23423000
Sep 22514110
Sep 20422000
Sep 19522001
Sep 18414102
Sep 17411000
Sep 16400001
Sep 15300001

Two strikes

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPwith two strikes
Hunter Brown with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%28%22.7%21.1%18.0%
Curveball19%28%42.2%23.8%20.0%
Sinker31%25%13.4%20.4%17.0%
Slider9%10%12.0%19.5%21.1%
Changeup10%7%35.7%16.7%18.6%
Sweeper1%1%50.0%20.0%19.3%
Cutter2%1%100.0%33.3%17.9%
Zack Gelof bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Zack Gelof with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.1%42.4%
Whiff%24.2%22.2%
Contact%75.8%77.8%
Chase%35.5%39.9%
wOBA.239.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.3%21.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCPower type
wOBA.315
K%26.6%
BB%8.2%
Whiff%13.2%
Barrel%8.2%
Hard-hit%27.1%
Avg EV88.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

143 PA
wOBA.332
xwOBA vs this mix.356against pitches like his
RV/1000.37
Hard-hit%28.4%
K%24.3%
BB%8.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Hunter BrownRHP · HOU vs OAK
6.1projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.4 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 14.9%15%≤34 strikeouts: 13.1%13%45 strikeouts: 15.9%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.8%14%78 strikeouts: 10.4%10%89+ strikeouts: 16.0%16%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.5%
BB%11.5%
Whiff%11.0%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker31%11596.29.0%
Fastball30%8996.28.1%
Curveball19%9583.516.3%
Changeup10%9187.514.8%
Slider9%10291.09.9%
Cutter2%10293.017.4%
Sweeper1%7687.520.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209848%17%19%.238
Sep 159150%15%15%.212
Sep 99033%11%24%.352

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPvsOAK lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Zack Gelof: every projection we've made →