MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 25, 2026
9:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · LAA · batting 5Moisés Ballesteros
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.255wOBA vs RHP.285xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · SEABryce Miller
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Trending Up
5.5projected K20%K%2.6trips vs this hitter
Bryce Miller's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 37% usage, 95.7 mph, +4.0″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Moisés Ballesteros: wOBA .322 vs league .340 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 37%Splitter: 25% usage, 84.2 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Moisés Ballesteros: wOBA .255 vs league .273 (pitcher's edge).Splitter 25%Sinker: 11% usage, 95.0 mph, +13.4″ arm side, +13.7″ rise. Moisés Ballesteros: wOBA .334 vs league .352 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 11%Slider: 10% usage, 86.9 mph, -4.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Moisés Ballesteros: wOBA .310 vs league .328 (pitcher's edge).Slider 10%Sweeper: 8% usage, 83.5 mph, -15.2″ arm side, -7.3″ rise. Moisés Ballesteros: wOBA .278 vs league .295 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 8%Cutter: 6% usage, 91.1 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +10.1″ rise. Moisés Ballesteros: wOBA .338 vs league .356 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 6%Curveball: 3% usage, 82.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, -13.0″ rise. Moisés Ballesteros: wOBA .286 vs league .304 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 3%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Moisés Ballesteros's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Moisés Ballesteros's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 79.8 mph at 53°Out: 72.0 mph at 3°Single: 70.6 mph at 25°Out: 91.2 mph at -15°Out: 90.7 mph at 32°Single: 96.8 mph at 12°Out: 71.5 mph at -9°Out: 87.4 mph at 64°Out: 74.3 mph at 6°Out: 85.4 mph at 60°Out: 91.7 mph at 49°Out: 75.4 mph at 40°Out: 85.9 mph at 47°Out: 88.0 mph at 27°Out: 75.0 mph at -47°Out: 95.7 mph at 46°Out: 99.0 mph at 31°Out: 96.6 mph at -16°Single: 109.5 mph at 10°Single: 103.8 mph at 12°Out: 98.0 mph at 8°Single: 96.3 mph at -2°Single: 93.0 mph at 1°Out: 95.7 mph at 32°Single: 72.6 mph at 18°Out: 75.8 mph at 38°Home run: 104.8 mph at 24°Out: 93.8 mph at 22°Out: 95.8 mph at 51°Out: 63.6 mph at -1°Single: 42.2 mph at -16°Single: 95.3 mph at 5°Out: 69.6 mph at 69°Single: 100.8 mph at 21°Double: 106.6 mph at -24°Home run: 104.7 mph at 32°Out: 94.4 mph at 0°Out: 64.5 mph at -29°Single: 108.9 mph at 1°Out: 102.8 mph at -1°
43% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.5%58.8%-0.3
2+ total bases31.9%31.6%+0.2
Home run11.1%9.5%+1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Moisés Ballesteros hits
Moisés Ballesteros · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .279 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.275xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .102 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 26 pitches seen.225xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 11 pitches seen.243xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .357 on 16 PA) · league .342 · 33 pitches seen.351xwOBA .364 shrunk (raw .346 on 15 PA) · league .386 · 42 pitches seen.364xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .321 · 10 pitches seen.296xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .265 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 25 pitches seen.287xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .254 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 32 pitches seen.301xwOBA .426 shrunk (raw .693 on 6 PA) · league .292 · 17 pitches seen.426xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .345 on 17 PA) · league .377 · 100 pitches seen.358xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .193 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 27 pitches seen.254xwOBA .184 shrunk (raw .121 on 15 PA) · league .263 · 61 pitches seen.184xwOBA .216 shrunk (raw .147 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 76 pitches seen.216
vs RHP · 480 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 16 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 24% of 21 swings · league 20%24%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 19%38%Whiff 4% of 26 swings · league 10%4%Whiff 9% of 33 swings · league 9%9%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 11%20%Whiff 28% of 18 swings · league 14%28%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 13%16%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 17%20%Whiff 43% of 30 swings · league 28%43%Whiff 50% of 10 swings · league 24%50%Whiff 41% of 34 swings · league 32%41%Whiff 60% of 25 swings · league 49%60%
vs RHP · 480 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 80% of 20 pitches · league 62%80%Swings at 81% of 26 pitches · league 72%81%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 66%73%Swings at 79% of 33 pitches · league 70%79%Swings at 79% of 42 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 50% of 10 pitches · league 70%50%Swings at 72% of 25 pitches · league 65%72%Swings at 59% of 32 pitches · league 68%59%Swings at 59% of 17 pitches · league 60%59%Swings at 30% of 100 pitches · league 24%30%Swings at 37% of 27 pitches · league 34%37%Swings at 56% of 61 pitches · league 40%56%Swings at 33% of 76 pitches · league 32%33%
vs RHP · 480 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Moisés Ballesteros against each of Bryce Miller's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball37%95.7+4″ / +19″.322.34025.0%18.0%28About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Splitter25%84.2+9″ / +5″.255.27333.2%27.8%8Little history vs this shape
Sinker11%95.0+13″ / +14″.334.35223.0%16.7%34About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider10%86.9-4″ / +1″.310.32832.5%27.0%12About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper8%83.5-15″ / -7″.278.29534.6%28.8%8About league average vs these
Cutter6%91.1-4″ / +10″.338.35625.1%18.3%10About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball3%82.9-3″ / -13″.286.30434.0%28.4%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Moisés Ballesteros · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.071.133.071.107.13846.7%6.7%50.0%84.596.80.0%14.3%14.3%
Last 15 G1440.222.300.389.305.31427.5%10.0%32.1%89.9109.512.0%48.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2782.197.256.342.268.25831.7%7.3%30.4%91.0109.58.2%49.0%30.6%
90 days39121.173.248.273.240.27428.1%9.1%29.0%92.1109.58.0%49.3%29.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 20%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.250.400.250.320.3540.0%20.0%0.0%80.090.70.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1017.385.412.462.368.25523.5%5.9%21.2%82.0106.60.0%27.3%36.4%
Last 30 G1937.333.351.394.324.29121.6%2.7%23.0%85.5106.67.4%37.0%37.0%
90 days2753.265.283.306.260.26422.6%1.9%21.3%85.8107.55.1%35.9%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 21%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.111.200.111.160.19235.0%10.0%41.0%82.996.80.0%9.1%27.3%
Last 15 G1557.265.333.408.324.29626.3%8.8%28.8%87.5109.58.3%41.7%38.9%
Last 30 G30119.239.286.358.286.26828.6%5.9%28.2%89.1109.57.9%44.7%32.9%
90 days44174.201.259.283.246.27126.4%6.9%26.7%89.9109.57.0%44.7%30.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 114 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 11%
Moisés Ballesteros · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating25Below average
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.255 / .290running 35 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSplitter83.479.853.060Out
Sep 25RHPSplitter83.272.03.088Out
Sep 24LHPSweeper78.870.625.890Single
Sep 23RHPSplitter89.991.2-15.076Out
Sep 22LHPSlider80.590.732.126Out
Sep 22RHPSinker95.596.812.928Single
Sep 22LHPCurveball74.071.5-9.041Double play
Sep 22LHPFastball90.187.464.014Out
Sep 20RHPSplitter80.074.36.196Double play
Sep 20RHPChangeup84.385.460.015Out
Sep 20RHPFastball90.091.749.009Out
Sep 19RHPSplitter88.775.440.217Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400002
Sep 24511013
Sep 23200001
Sep 22511010
Sep 20400001
Sep 19600002
Sep 18100000
Sep 17411001
Sep 16522010
Sep 15422001

Two strikes

Bryce Miller SEA · RHPwith two strikes
Bryce Miller with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter25%37%23.4%17.2%19.0%
Fastball37%35%16.5%19.5%18.0%
Sweeper8%14%15.4%8.2%19.3%
Curveball3%5%16.7%11.8%20.0%
Sinker11%4%0.0%14.3%17.0%
Slider10%3%33.3%36.4%21.1%
Cutter6%2%0.0%0.0%17.9%
Moisés Ballesteros bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Moisés Ballesteros with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.2%41.0%
Whiff%22.9%21.3%
Contact%77.1%78.7%
Chase%39.8%39.6%
wOBA.224.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.2%22.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.308
K%24.5%
BB%8.5%
Whiff%13.2%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%28.2%
Avg EV89.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

117 PA
wOBA.255
xwOBA vs this mix.285against pitches like his
RV/100-1.45
Hard-hit%30.9%
K%26.8%
BB%7.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bryce MillerRHP · SEA vs LAA
5.5projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.9 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 20.0%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.5%16%45 strikeouts: 17.0%17%56 strikeouts: 15.6%16%67 strikeouts: 12.4%12%78 strikeouts: 8.5%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.0%11%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 32% (red bars) · under: 68%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.6%
BB%10.5%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo90.2
BTB Stuff106
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball37%11795.68.9%
Splitter25%9784.216.1%
Sinker11%9895.10.0%
Slider10%9886.811.8%
Sweeper8%10283.47.4%
Cutter6%11891.414.9%
Curveball3%9383.08.6%
Other0%–92.00.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198927%8%9%.250
Sep 139223%14%14%.373
Sep 88433%11%22%.378

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bryce Miller SEA · RHPvsLAA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

7 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Moisés Ballesteros: every projection we've made →