MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 25, 2026
9:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · LAA · batting 8Travis d'Arnaud
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.270wOBA vs RHP.278xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · SEABryce Miller
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Trending Up
5.5projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Bryce Miller's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 37% usage, 95.7 mph, +4.0″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .328 vs league .332 (about even).Fastball 37%Splitter: 25% usage, 84.2 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .268 vs league .273 (about even).Splitter 25%Sinker: 11% usage, 95.0 mph, +13.4″ arm side, +13.7″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .347 vs league .351 (about even).Sinker 11%Slider: 10% usage, 86.9 mph, -4.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .288 vs league .293 (about even).Slider 10%Sweeper: 8% usage, 83.5 mph, -15.2″ arm side, -7.3″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .274 vs league .278 (about even).Sweeper 8%Cutter: 6% usage, 91.1 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +10.1″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .303 vs league .307 (about even).Cutter 6%Curveball: 3% usage, 82.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, -13.0″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .285 vs league .289 (about even).Curveball 3%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Travis d'Arnaud's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Travis d'Arnaud's last 24 balls in playHit (5)Out (19)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 69.9 mph at -40°Out: 93.8 mph at 40°Out: 94.2 mph at 60°Out: 92.1 mph at -7°Out: 97.1 mph at 29°Out: 82.7 mph at 28°Out: 55.3 mph at -58°Out: 60.5 mph at -34°Out: 96.5 mph at 16°Double: 95.7 mph at 24°Double: 81.7 mph at 39°Out: 96.1 mph at -33°Single: 87.6 mph at 10°Out: 71.0 mph at -21°Out: 93.3 mph at 48°Out: 95.3 mph at -22°Out: 98.9 mph at -24°Out: 92.9 mph at 48°Out: 76.0 mph at -41°Single: 75.8 mph at -8°Single: 75.3 mph at 3°Out: 100.5 mph at 32°Out: 78.5 mph at -1°Out: 94.4 mph at 50°
29% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot21% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit46.3%46.6%-0.3
2+ total bases24.3%24.7%-0.4
Home run9.0%8.9%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.9
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Travis d'Arnaud hits
Travis d'Arnaud · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .094 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 2 pitches seen.260xwOBA .283 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .307 · 3 pitches seen.283xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 2 pitches seen.243xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .679 on 1 PA) · league .342 · 5 pitches seen.368xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .025 on 1 PA) · league .386 · 2 pitches seen.358xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .157 on 1 PA) · league .321 · 4 pitches seen.308xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .058 on 1 PA) · league .351 · 4 pitches seen.328xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .094 on 1 PA) · league .292 · 3 pitches seen.277xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .030 on 1 PA) · league .377 · 9 pitches seen.350xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 7 pitches seen.307xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 2 pitches seen.243xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 9 pitches seen.253
vs RHP · 53 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 22%50%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 20%50%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 19%100%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 28%40%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 32%50%Whiff 100% of 2 swings · league 49%100%
vs RHP · 53 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 62%100%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 66%50%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 70%80%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 76%50%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 65%100%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 68%25%Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 60%100%Swings at 56% of 9 pitches · league 24%56%Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 34%43%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 40%100%Swings at 22% of 9 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 53 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Travis d'Arnaud against each of Bryce Miller's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball37%95.7+4″ / +19″.328.33227.7%22.9%4Little history vs this shape
Splitter25%84.2+9″ / +5″.268.27334.6%33.4%1Little history vs this shape
Sinker11%95.0+13″ / +14″.347.35117.9%14.1%3Little history vs this shape
Slider10%86.9-4″ / +1″.288.29331.1%30.5%2Little history vs this shape
Sweeper8%83.5-15″ / -7″.274.27827.9%27.4%1Little history vs this shape
Cutter6%91.1-4″ / +10″.303.30730.9%25.6%2Little history vs this shape
Curveball3%82.9-3″ / -13″.285.28930.3%29.7%1Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Travis d'Arnaud · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.000.000.000.000.14128.6%0.0%26.7%89.396.50.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G611.000.091.000.064.16727.3%9.1%19.2%91.196.50.0%42.9%14.3%
Last 30 G712.000.083.000.058.15333.3%8.3%26.7%91.196.50.0%42.9%14.3%
90 days712.000.083.000.058.15333.3%8.3%26.7%91.196.50.0%42.9%14.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 7 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 14%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.222.222.444.278.13133.3%0.0%28.6%78.897.10.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1326.167.231.250.219.12742.3%7.7%39.6%82.298.90.0%23.1%30.8%
Last 30 G1632.167.219.233.206.13640.6%6.2%35.6%83.4100.55.9%23.5%29.4%
90 days1632.167.219.233.206.13640.6%6.2%35.6%83.4100.55.9%23.5%29.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 12%Fly ball 41%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.125.125.250.156.13531.2%0.0%27.6%83.697.10.0%27.3%36.4%
Last 15 G1537.118.189.176.173.13937.8%8.1%32.4%85.398.90.0%30.0%25.0%
Last 30 G1844.122.182.171.166.14138.6%6.8%32.6%85.6100.54.2%29.2%25.0%
90 days1844.122.182.171.166.14138.6%6.8%32.6%85.6100.54.2%29.2%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 24 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 13%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 4%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.185 / .169results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball96.169.9-40.094Out
Sep 25RHPFastball96.793.840.030Out
Sep 25RHPFastball94.594.260.025Out
Sep 25RHPFastball94.792.1-7.157Out
Sep 18LHPSlider88.697.129.434Out
Sep 18LHPFastball94.482.728.148Out
Sep 14LHPChangeup85.655.3-58.180Out
Sep 14LHPFastball92.560.5-34.077Out
Sep 14RHPFastball93.396.516.679Out
Sep 8LHPFastball93.895.724.335Double
Sep 8LHPSweeper79.481.739.008Double
Sep 2RHPSinker99.296.1-33.058Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 18300001
Sep 14400001
Sep 8424002
Sep 4100001
Sep 2200001
Aug 29211001
Aug 26100001
Aug 24200001
Aug 22300001

Two strikes

Bryce Miller SEA · RHPwith two strikes
Bryce Miller with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter25%37%23.4%17.2%19.0%
Fastball37%35%16.5%19.5%18.0%
Sweeper8%14%15.4%8.2%19.3%
Curveball3%5%16.7%11.8%20.0%
Sinker11%4%0.0%14.3%17.0%
Slider10%3%33.3%36.4%21.1%
Cutter6%2%0.0%0.0%17.9%
Travis d'Arnaud bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Travis d'Arnaud with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.9%42.4%
Whiff%22.5%22.2%
Contact%77.5%77.8%
Chase%39.7%39.9%
wOBA.233.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.7%24.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.264
K%31.4%
BB%6.5%
Whiff%11.6%
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%22.9%
Avg EV87.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

8 PA
wOBA.270
xwOBA vs this mix.278against pitches like his
RV/100-0.79
Hard-hit%26.2%
K%28.8%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bryce MillerRHP · SEA vs LAA
5.5projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.9 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 20.0%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.5%16%45 strikeouts: 17.0%17%56 strikeouts: 15.6%16%67 strikeouts: 12.4%12%78 strikeouts: 8.5%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.0%11%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 32% (red bars) · under: 68%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.6%
BB%10.5%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo90.2
BTB Stuff106
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball37%11795.68.9%
Splitter25%9784.216.1%
Sinker11%9895.10.0%
Slider10%9886.811.8%
Sweeper8%10283.47.4%
Cutter6%11891.414.9%
Curveball3%9383.08.6%
Other0%–92.00.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198927%8%9%.250
Sep 139223%14%14%.373
Sep 88433%11%22%.378

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bryce Miller SEA · RHPvsLAA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

7 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Travis d'Arnaud: every projection we've made →