MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 25, 2026
9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SF · batting 6Marcelo Mayer
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.308wOBA vs LHP.313xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · LADTarik Skubal
Throws leftBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
8.3projected K30%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Tarik Skubal's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.8 mph, +2.8″ arm side, +16.8″ rise. Marcelo Mayer: wOBA .332 vs league .332 (about even).Fastball 39%Changeup: 25% usage, 87.9 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Marcelo Mayer: wOBA .328 vs league .328 (about even).Changeup 25%Sinker: 16% usage, 96.6 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Marcelo Mayer: wOBA .335 vs league .334 (about even).Sinker 16%Slider: 14% usage, 89.9 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Marcelo Mayer: wOBA .325 vs league .325 (about even).Slider 14%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.6 mph, -8.5″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Marcelo Mayer: wOBA .273 vs league .273 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Marcelo Mayer's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Marcelo Mayer's last 3 balls in playHit (0)Out (3)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 85.1 mph at 27°Out: 81.2 mph at -17°Out: 92.8 mph at 11°
0% hit 95+ mph67% in the sweet spot0% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit49.0%53.7%-4.8
2+ total bases22.6%27.4%-4.8
Home run5.3%9.3%-4.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-3.7
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.5
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-2.8
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Marcelo Mayer hits
Marcelo Mayer · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .069 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 2 pitches seen.279xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .072 on 1 PA) · league .385 · 1 pitches seen.361xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .340 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .273 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .273 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .350 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .350 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .302 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .302 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .346 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .346 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .289 · 7 pitches seen.298xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .257 · 1 pitches seen
vs LHP · 14 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 21%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 23%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 9%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 10%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 11%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 17%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 14%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 16%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 25%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 29%Whiff 100% of 3 swings · league 48%100%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 34%
vs LHP · 14 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 63%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 71%50%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 64%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 67%0%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 76%100%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 72%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 59%Swings at 0% of 2 pitches · league 68%0%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 66%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 30%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 26%Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 31%43%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 41%0%
vs LHP · 14 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Marcelo Mayer against each of Tarik Skubal's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.8+3″ / +17″.332.33227.8%25.3%1Little history vs this shape
Changeup25%87.9+14″ / +5″.328.32819.3%17.3%1Little history vs this shape
Sinker16%96.6+13″ / +12″.335.33414.2%12.6%1Little history vs this shape
Slider14%89.9-3″ / +4″.325.32532.7%28.1%1Little history vs this shape
Curveball6%80.6-9″ / -5″.273.27334.8%30.1%1Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Marcelo Mayer · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.000.250.000.175.21025.0%25.0%60.0%83.285.10.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G24.000.250.000.175.21025.0%25.0%60.0%83.285.10.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 30 G24.000.250.000.175.21025.0%25.0%60.0%83.285.10.0%0.0%50.0%
90 days24.000.250.000.175.21025.0%25.0%60.0%83.285.10.0%0.0%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 2 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 0%Fly ball 50%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.000.143.000.100.19671.4%14.3%57.1%92.892.80.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G37.000.143.000.100.19671.4%14.3%57.1%92.892.80.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 30 G37.000.143.000.100.19671.4%14.3%57.1%92.892.80.0%0.0%100.0%
90 days37.000.143.000.100.19671.4%14.3%57.1%92.892.80.0%0.0%100.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 1 balls in play
Ground 0%Line drive 100%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G311.000.182.000.127.20154.5%18.2%57.9%86.492.80.0%0.0%66.7%
Last 15 G311.000.182.000.127.20154.5%18.2%57.9%86.492.80.0%0.0%66.7%
Last 30 G311.000.182.000.127.20154.5%18.2%57.9%86.492.80.0%0.0%66.7%
90 days311.000.182.000.127.20154.5%18.2%57.9%86.492.80.0%0.0%66.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 3 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 33%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 0%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.174 / .259running 85 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit0/2
2+ total bases0/2
Home run0/2

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 3 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup88.685.127.069Out
Sep 25LHPFastball98.681.2-17.072Out
Sep 23RHPCutter90.892.811.676Out
Last 3 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300001
Sep 23400021
Sep 21400004

Two strikes

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Tarik Skubal with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball39%38%26.4%24.3%18.6%
Changeup25%36%41.1%26.1%18.3%
Sinker16%11%13.8%16.7%17.7%
Slider14%8%17.4%22.9%21.6%
Curveball6%7%45.0%33.3%21.2%
Marcelo Mayer bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Marcelo Mayer with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.3%44.1%
Whiff%23.5%22.7%
Contact%76.5%77.3%
Chase%37.7%38.2%
wOBA.225.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.0%21.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.299
K%29.2%
BB%6.6%
Whiff%10.8%
Barrel%5.0%
Hard-hit%30.8%
Avg EV89.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

2 PA
wOBA.308
xwOBA vs this mix.313against pitches like his
RV/100-0.19
Hard-hit%24.3%
K%25.4%
BB%10.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD vs SF
8.3projected strikeouts · likely 5 to 12 · 24.2 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 3.6%4%≤34 strikeouts: 5.0%5%45 strikeouts: 8.2%8%56 strikeouts: 11.3%11%67 strikeouts: 13.3%13%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 44.8%45%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%30.3%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%15.8%
Velo92.6
BTB Stuff111
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%12496.814.1%
Changeup25%9787.926.5%
Sinker16%10696.77.5%
Slider14%11689.910.1%
Curveball6%8980.517.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198612%13%24%.485
Sep 149038%16%13%.142
Sep 89419%11%26%.259

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Marcelo Mayer: every projection we've made →