MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 25, 2026
9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SF · batting 7Shay Whitcomb
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.279wOBA vs LHP.282xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · LADTarik Skubal
Throws leftBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
8.3projected K30%K%2.0trips vs this hitter
Tarik Skubal's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.8 mph, +2.8″ arm side, +16.8″ rise. Shay Whitcomb: wOBA .310 vs league .317 (about even).Fastball 39%Changeup: 25% usage, 87.9 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Shay Whitcomb: wOBA .317 vs league .323 (about even).Changeup 25%Sinker: 16% usage, 96.6 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Shay Whitcomb: wOBA .345 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 16%Slider: 14% usage, 89.9 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Shay Whitcomb: wOBA .316 vs league .322 (about even).Slider 14%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.6 mph, -8.5″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Shay Whitcomb: wOBA .289 vs league .296 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Shay Whitcomb's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Shay Whitcomb's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 81.5 mph at 55°Single: 70.6 mph at 27°Out: 79.9 mph at -16°Out: 99.4 mph at 16°Single: 105.1 mph at 11°Out: 88.3 mph at 23°Out: 79.1 mph at 0°Out: 90.7 mph at 38°Out: 93.0 mph at -8°Out: 103.2 mph at -7°Single: 66.2 mph at -22°Out: 65.9 mph at -14°Out: 105.0 mph at 19°Out: 105.1 mph at -6°Single: 103.7 mph at 13°Single: 56.7 mph at -56°Out: 91.2 mph at 48°Single: 73.2 mph at 30°Single: 92.6 mph at 8°Out: 91.1 mph at 62°Out: 78.7 mph at -38°Out: 51.8 mph at 35°Out: 92.7 mph at -17°Home run: 105.8 mph at 24°Out: 81.4 mph at 27°Out: 92.1 mph at 49°Out: 100.3 mph at -1°Out: 65.0 mph at -49°Double: 102.6 mph at 25°Out: 58.8 mph at 49°Out: 92.8 mph at 39°Single: 103.6 mph at 7°Out: 59.2 mph at 44°Out: 73.8 mph at 13°Out: 92.0 mph at -16°Out: 78.9 mph at 52°Single: 105.1 mph at 8°Single: 76.1 mph at -32°Out: 102.5 mph at 16°Out: 87.8 mph at -5°
30% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.2%57.3%-4.0
2+ total bases26.8%30.6%-3.7
Home run7.6%10.0%-2.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
-0.8
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.5
Home run
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Shay Whitcomb hits
Shay Whitcomb · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .454 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 5 pitches seen.273xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .718 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 3 pitches seen.328xwOBA .208 shrunk (raw .026 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 6 pitches seen.208xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .254 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 5 pitches seen.297xwOBA .391 shrunk (raw .407 on 5 PA) · league .385 · 8 pitches seen.391xwOBA .400 shrunk (raw .762 on 2 PA) · league .340 · 7 pitches seen.400xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .161 on 1 PA) · league .273 · 5 pitches seen.264xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .274 on 4 PA) · league .350 · 7 pitches seen.331xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .000 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 9 pitches seen.239xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .042 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 6 pitches seen.250xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .033 on 4 PA) · league .346 · 22 pitches seen.268xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .189 on 1 PA) · league .289 · 18 pitches seen.281xwOBA .220 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 13 pitches seen.220
vs LHP · 114 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 23%20%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 10%14%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 16%40%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 25%33%Whiff 67% of 6 swings · league 29%67%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 48%50%Whiff 50% of 6 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 114 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 63%60%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 71%67%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 64%83%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 67%80%Swings at 88% of 8 pitches · league 76%88%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 59%60%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 68%71%Swings at 56% of 9 pitches · league 66%56%Swings at 50% of 6 pitches · league 30%50%Swings at 27% of 22 pitches · league 26%27%Swings at 11% of 18 pitches · league 31%11%Swings at 46% of 13 pitches · league 41%46%
vs LHP · 114 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Shay Whitcomb against each of Tarik Skubal's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.8+3″ / +17″.310.31719.4%18.2%7Little history vs this shape
Changeup25%87.9+14″ / +5″.317.32328.9%27.8%7Little history vs this shape
Sinker16%96.6+13″ / +12″.345.35218.8%17.6%8About league average vs these
Slider14%89.9-3″ / +4″.316.32218.0%21.2%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball6%80.6-9″ / -5″.289.29625.2%29.1%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Shay Whitcomb · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.222.222.222.300.18133.3%0.0%25.0%86.3103.20.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1024.250.250.250.274.20725.0%0.0%24.4%85.3105.05.9%23.5%29.4%
Last 30 G1735.200.200.229.222.22725.7%0.0%23.2%86.6107.98.0%28.0%32.0%
90 days1735.200.200.229.222.22725.7%0.0%23.2%86.6107.98.0%28.0%32.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 25 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 24%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.143.250.143.200.30937.5%12.5%31.6%93.2105.10.0%50.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1129.250.276.393.291.31124.1%3.4%22.0%85.8105.89.5%33.3%38.1%
Last 30 G2260.200.241.345.279.28125.0%5.0%22.6%82.4105.87.1%33.3%33.3%
90 days2260.200.241.345.279.28125.0%5.0%22.6%82.4105.87.1%33.3%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 42 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 17%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.188.235.188.253.24135.3%5.9%28.6%89.1105.10.0%30.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1553.250.264.327.284.26524.5%1.9%23.0%85.6105.87.9%28.9%34.2%
Last 30 G2795.200.226.300.258.26125.3%3.2%22.8%84.0107.97.5%31.3%32.8%
90 days2795.200.226.300.258.26125.3%3.2%22.8%84.0107.97.5%31.3%32.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 67 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 19%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 12%
Shay Whitcomb · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating23Poor
Last 100 pitches33trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.257 / .288running 32 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPSinker96.581.555.032Single
Sep 23LHPCurveball85.570.627.873Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.179.9-16.058Out
Sep 22RHPFastball98.099.416.623Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.7105.111.906Single
Sep 20RHPSlider87.388.323.184Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup87.079.10.165Error
Sep 19LHPSlider88.090.738.036Out
Sep 19LHPFastball95.693.0-8.189Out
Sep 19LHPSlider88.3103.2-7.338Out
Sep 16LHPChangeup87.666.2-22.047Single
Sep 16LHPFastball93.365.9-14.051Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200002
Sep 23422001
Sep 22411011
Sep 20300001
Sep 19400001
Sep 18300003
Sep 16622000
Sep 15100001
Sep 14311001
Sep 13422000

Two strikes

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Tarik Skubal with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball39%38%26.4%24.3%18.6%
Changeup25%36%41.1%26.1%18.3%
Sinker16%11%13.8%16.7%17.7%
Slider14%8%17.4%22.9%21.6%
Curveball6%7%45.0%33.3%21.2%
Shay Whitcomb bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Shay Whitcomb with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.6%41.5%
Whiff%25.8%21.6%
Contact%74.2%78.4%
Chase%40.5%39.9%
wOBA.246.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.4%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.270
K%24.6%
BB%4.9%
Whiff%10.8%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%22.4%
Avg EV86.1

Against left-handers, last 90 days

33 PA
wOBA.279
xwOBA vs this mix.282against pitches like his
RV/100-1.29
Hard-hit%23.8%
K%22.3%
BB%4.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD vs SF
8.3projected strikeouts · likely 5 to 12 · 24.2 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 3.6%4%≤34 strikeouts: 5.0%5%45 strikeouts: 8.2%8%56 strikeouts: 11.3%11%67 strikeouts: 13.3%13%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 44.8%45%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%30.3%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%15.8%
Velo92.6
BTB Stuff111
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%12496.814.1%
Changeup25%9787.926.5%
Sinker16%10696.77.5%
Slider14%11689.910.1%
Curveball6%8980.517.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198612%13%24%.485
Sep 149038%16%13%.142
Sep 89419%11%26%.259

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Shay Whitcomb: every projection we've made →