MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 25, 2026
9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · LAD · batting 4Will Smith
Bats rightTalent grade BContactNormal
.346wOBA vs RHP.349xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · SFYunior Marte
Throws rightBTB Stuff 78Trending Down
3.9projected K13%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Yunior Marte's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 45% usage, 93.3 mph, +8.4″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Will Smith: wOBA .370 vs league .365 (about even).Fastball 45%Slider: 42% usage, 85.3 mph, -1.8″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Will Smith: wOBA .312 vs league .307 (about even).Slider 42%Splitter: 13% usage, 82.8 mph, +7.1″ arm side, +3.3″ rise. Will Smith: wOBA .294 vs league .289 (about even).Splitter 13%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Will Smith's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Will Smith's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 104.7 mph at 15°Single: 97.3 mph at 12°Single: 95.8 mph at 16°Single: 92.2 mph at 15°Out: 74.6 mph at -19°Out: 96.6 mph at 37°Home run: 101.9 mph at 30°Out: 78.7 mph at -5°Single: 66.6 mph at 29°Home run: 105.4 mph at 32°Out: 77.2 mph at 4°Out: 65.9 mph at -6°Single: 102.0 mph at 10°Out: 96.7 mph at 28°Out: 47.5 mph at -61°Home run: 101.6 mph at 33°Out: 85.8 mph at 29°Out: 83.0 mph at 44°Double: 102.9 mph at 20°Single: 99.4 mph at 8°Out: 61.2 mph at -11°Out: 32.5 mph at -45°Out: 67.4 mph at -20°Double: 100.2 mph at 15°Out: 97.6 mph at 37°Out: 76.2 mph at 11°Single: 69.2 mph at 27°Out: 82.3 mph at 43°Out: 92.7 mph at 63°Out: 74.5 mph at 60°Double: 105.0 mph at 13°Out: 98.7 mph at 31°Out: 87.4 mph at 65°Home run: 100.8 mph at 31°Out: 97.2 mph at 46°Out: 81.9 mph at 36°Out: 83.2 mph at 24°Single: 103.1 mph at 11°Out: 60.9 mph at 14°Out: 82.8 mph at 49°
45% hit 95+ mph53% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.9%63.8%+0.2
2+ total bases36.6%37.8%-1.2
Home run12.0%14.8%-2.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-2.1
Home run
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-2.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Will Smith hits
Will Smith · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 8 pitches seenxwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .372 on 2 PA) · league .307 · 9 pitches seen.316xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .356 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 10 pitches seen.276xwOBA .380 shrunk (raw .534 on 3 PA) · league .342 · 6 pitches seen.380xwOBA .420 shrunk (raw .500 on 5 PA) · league .386 · 9 pitches seen.420xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .273 on 5 PA) · league .321 · 12 pitches seen.307xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .270 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 6 pitches seen.298xwOBA .415 shrunk (raw .669 on 3 PA) · league .351 · 9 pitches seen.415xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .464 on 2 PA) · league .292 · 8 pitches seen.317xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .275 on 3 PA) · league .377 · 20 pitches seen.357xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .389 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 11 pitches seen.290xwOBA .333 shrunk (raw 1.170 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 7 pitches seen.333xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .327 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 45 pitches seen.297
vs RHP · 160 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 20%17%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 19%40%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 10%20%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 9%11%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 11%20%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 13%17%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 28%33%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 32%0%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 49%20%
vs RHP · 160 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 62%75%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 50% of 10 pitches · league 66%50%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 100% of 9 pitches · league 76%100%Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 65%83%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 68%67%Swings at 50% of 8 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 30% of 20 pitches · league 24%30%Swings at 27% of 11 pitches · league 34%27%Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 40%43%Swings at 22% of 45 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 160 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Will Smith against each of Yunior Marte's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball45%93.3+8″ / +15″.370.36516.8%15.3%5Little history vs this shape
Slider42%85.3-2″ / +0″.312.30724.8%30.8%7Little history vs this shape
Splitter13%82.8+7″ / +3″.294.28936.0%38.5%1Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Will Smith · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.538.6001.000.660.58513.3%13.3%19.4%90.2105.418.2%63.6%63.6%
Last 15 G1533.393.455.679.473.45415.2%12.1%16.9%90.4105.48.3%54.2%58.3%
Last 30 G1941.333.390.583.411.40614.6%9.8%19.2%90.2105.46.5%51.6%54.8%
90 days1941.333.390.583.411.40614.6%9.8%19.2%90.2105.46.5%51.6%54.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 31 balls in play
Ground 19%Line drive 26%Fly ball 42%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.333.500.333.400.40725.0%25.0%14.3%83.492.20.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G924.294.500.706.498.44112.5%25.0%10.0%79.8102.914.3%35.7%42.9%
Last 30 G1231.217.419.522.408.41312.9%22.6%11.5%80.7102.910.5%36.8%36.8%
90 days1231.217.419.522.408.41312.9%22.6%11.5%80.7102.910.5%36.8%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 19 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 21%Fly ball 37%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.500.579.875.605.54815.8%15.8%17.8%89.1105.415.4%53.8%61.5%
Last 15 G1557.356.474.689.483.44814.0%17.5%14.3%86.5105.410.5%47.4%52.6%
Last 30 G2072.288.403.559.410.40913.9%15.3%16.2%86.6105.48.0%46.0%48.0%
90 days2072.288.403.559.410.40913.9%15.3%16.2%86.6105.48.0%46.0%48.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 50 balls in play
Ground 26%Line drive 24%Fly ball 40%Pop-up 10%
Will Smith · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating98Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.396 / .403results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball91.6104.715.712Single
Sep 25RHPSlider85.997.312.928Single
Sep 25RHPSweeper85.395.816.698Single
Sep 23LHPSinker93.492.215.886Single
Sep 23LHPSinker93.474.6-19.042Force out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.396.637.301Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball83.1101.9301.170Home run
Sep 20RHPSweeper86.078.7-5.080Fielder's choice
Sep 19RHPSlider85.966.629.872Single
Sep 19RHPSlider84.1105.4321.566Home run
Sep 19RHPSweeper83.377.24.195Force out
Sep 19RHPSplitter83.665.9-6.058Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25433001
Sep 23511030
Sep 22414102
Sep 20100000
Sep 19536100
Sep 18514110
Sep 16523011
Sep 14400001
Sep 13512021
Sep 12100000

Two strikes

Yunior Marte SF · RHPwith two strikes
Yunior Marte with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider42%44%21.1%16.1%21.1%
Fastball45%37%7.1%19.2%18.0%
Splitter13%20%14.3%7.1%19.0%
Will Smith bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Will Smith with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.8%42.4%
Whiff%19.8%22.2%
Contact%80.2%77.8%
Chase%38.9%39.9%
wOBA.240.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.5%24.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.377
K%19.1%
BB%13.5%
Whiff%9.6%
Barrel%6.2%
Hard-hit%28.9%
Avg EV89.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

38 PA
wOBA.346
xwOBA vs this mix.349against pitches like his
RV/1000.73
Hard-hit%30.0%
K%19.1%
BB%12.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Yunior MarteRHP · SF vs LAD
3.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.7 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 45.3%45%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 9.9%10%67 strikeouts: 5.5%5%78 strikeouts: 2.8%3%89+ strikeouts: 1.9%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.3%
BB%10.8%
Whiff%8.0%
Velo88.5
BTB Stuff78
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball45%5893.22.1%
Slider42%9085.213.0%
Splitter13%11382.712.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19978%5%33%.477
Sep 117720%12%20%.240
Sep 46210%7%57%.343

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Yunior Marte SF · RHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Will Smith: every projection we've made →