MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 25, 2026
5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · NYM · batting 6Francisco Alvarez
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedHot
.284wOBA vs LHP.297xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · WSHAndrew Alvarez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.6projected K22%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Andrew Alvarez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Curveball: 33% usage, 83.1 mph, -10.7″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. Francisco Alvarez: wOBA .274 vs league .283 (about even).Curveball 33%Fastball: 30% usage, 92.3 mph, +3.4″ arm side, +14.3″ rise. Francisco Alvarez: wOBA .331 vs league .341 (about even).Fastball 30%Slider: 17% usage, 84.6 mph, -1.0″ arm side, -1.1″ rise. Francisco Alvarez: wOBA .298 vs league .308 (about even).Slider 17%Sinker: 13% usage, 91.7 mph, +14.9″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. Francisco Alvarez: wOBA .355 vs league .365 (about even).Sinker 13%Changeup: 7% usage, 86.6 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. Francisco Alvarez: wOBA .305 vs league .314 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Francisco Alvarez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Francisco Alvarez's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.4 mph at -1°Out: 100.2 mph at 39°Single: 105.4 mph at 3°Out: 96.4 mph at 27°Single: 113.7 mph at 5°Out: 94.1 mph at 27°Double: 112.3 mph at 20°Double: 104.6 mph at 24°Out: 89.2 mph at 25°Single: 78.4 mph at 0°Out: 96.8 mph at 53°Single: 108.0 mph at -2°Home run: 102.2 mph at 30°Single: 98.8 mph at -7°Out: 93.8 mph at 62°Out: 73.3 mph at 15°Out: 56.4 mph at -42°Out: 96.7 mph at -8°Out: 99.5 mph at 33°Out: 75.1 mph at 65°Single: 101.2 mph at -6°Out: 56.5 mph at -57°Out: 96.2 mph at -8°Out: 77.9 mph at -76°Single: 108.6 mph at 13°Out: 103.3 mph at 16°Out: 111.5 mph at -8°Out: 103.1 mph at -16°Out: 109.6 mph at -18°Single: 87.6 mph at 16°Out: 81.4 mph at -6°Single: 104.3 mph at -7°Out: 65.6 mph at -68°Out: 93.4 mph at 23°Home run: 107.4 mph at 22°Home run: 107.5 mph at 24°Out: 97.8 mph at 38°Out: 103.3 mph at 3°Out: 96.8 mph at 30°Single: 96.7 mph at 15°
68% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.9%55.1%-0.2
2+ total bases32.0%32.2%-0.2
Home run13.1%13.4%-0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Francisco Alvarez hits
Francisco Alvarez · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .184 shrunk (raw .007 on 4 PA) · league .243 · 11 pitches seen.184xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .216 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 16 pitches seen.280xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .731 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 12 pitches seen.349xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .078 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 18 pitches seen.262xwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .207 on 4 PA) · league .385 · 13 pitches seen.341xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .308 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 17 pitches seen.332xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .311 on 6 PA) · league .273 · 15 pitches seen.286xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .340 on 5 PA) · league .350 · 15 pitches seen.347xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .540 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 18 pitches seen.347xwOBA .288 shrunk (raw .233 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 26 pitches seen.288xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .288 on 10 PA) · league .346 · 64 pitches seen.320xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .260 on 15 PA) · league .289 · 58 pitches seen.273xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .316 on 8 PA) · league .257 · 52 pitches seen.281
vs LHP · 335 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 40% of 10 swings · league 19%40%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 21%20%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 23%33%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 9%25%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 10%33%Whiff 30% of 10 swings · league 11%30%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 16%20%Whiff 56% of 9 swings · league 25%56%Whiff 46% of 22 swings · league 29%46%Whiff 52% of 21 swings · league 48%52%Whiff 50% of 8 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 335 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 91% of 11 pitches · league 63%91%Swings at 94% of 16 pitches · league 71%94%Swings at 50% of 12 pitches · league 64%50%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 67%67%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 76%69%Swings at 59% of 17 pitches · league 72%59%Swings at 53% of 15 pitches · league 59%53%Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 68%60%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 66%56%Swings at 35% of 26 pitches · league 30%35%Swings at 34% of 64 pitches · league 26%34%Swings at 36% of 58 pitches · league 31%36%Swings at 15% of 52 pitches · league 41%15%
vs LHP · 335 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Francisco Alvarez against each of Andrew Alvarez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Curveball33%83.1-11″ / -12″.274.28336.8%28.7%5Little history vs this shape
Fastball30%92.3+3″ / +14″.331.34124.7%14.7%13About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider17%84.6-1″ / -1″.298.30843.5%35.0%8About league average vs these
Sinker13%91.7+15″ / +5″.355.36521.5%12.5%16About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup7%86.6+15″ / +5″.305.31439.5%29.5%15About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Francisco Alvarez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.364.364.455.441.32927.3%0.0%8.7%98.6112.312.5%75.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1019.263.263.474.361.42915.8%0.0%13.9%97.9112.312.5%75.0%43.8%
Last 30 G2341.184.244.289.262.30639.0%7.3%32.9%97.2112.39.1%63.6%45.5%
90 days3872.164.292.230.264.29240.3%13.9%35.6%93.0112.36.2%56.2%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 32 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 22%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.444.400.889.505.40530.0%0.0%28.6%100.4113.728.6%71.4%42.9%
Last 15 G1442.231.262.410.287.27840.5%4.8%33.7%93.0113.713.0%60.9%30.4%
Last 30 G2875.197.227.324.239.23841.3%4.0%35.8%90.4113.79.8%56.1%29.3%
90 days55156.248.314.454.332.31433.3%8.3%32.1%90.4113.716.7%50.0%35.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 90 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 23%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.400.381.650.471.36528.6%0.0%16.2%99.4113.720.0%73.3%40.0%
Last 15 G1561.241.262.431.310.32532.8%3.3%27.7%95.0113.712.8%66.7%35.9%
Last 30 G30116.193.233.312.247.26240.5%5.2%34.8%92.7113.79.5%58.7%34.9%
90 days58228.223.307.386.311.30735.5%10.1%33.3%91.0113.713.9%51.6%36.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 122 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 23%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 9%
Francisco Alvarez · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating64Average
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.312 / .330running 18 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker90.997.4-1.309Double play
Sep 25RHPSlider88.5100.239.373Sac fly
Sep 23LHPChangeup81.3105.43.505Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup83.096.427.451Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.8113.75.672Single
Sep 22LHPCurveball82.394.127.202Error
Sep 22LHPFastball92.2112.3201.617Double
Sep 22RHPSplitter87.2104.6241.540Double
Sep 22RHPSinker91.189.225.087Out
Sep 20LHPSlider87.378.40.097Single
Sep 20LHPSinker95.296.853.009Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup89.1108.0-2.432Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400002
Sep 23422001
Sep 22524001
Sep 20422001
Sep 19425101
Sep 17300001
Sep 15500002
Sep 14411001
Sep 13311001
Sep 11400011

Two strikes

Andrew Alvarez WSH · LHPwith two strikes
Andrew Alvarez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball33%49%40.2%28.6%21.2%
Fastball30%23%6.5%12.7%18.6%
Slider17%17%31.2%19.2%21.6%
Changeup7%8%0.0%4.3%18.3%
Sinker13%3%20.0%30.0%17.7%
Francisco Alvarez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Francisco Alvarez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.8%41.5%
Whiff%24.3%21.6%
Contact%75.7%78.4%
Chase%38.6%39.9%
wOBA.237.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes28.1%25.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.328
K%34.0%
BB%9.9%
Whiff%14.2%
Barrel%7.4%
Hard-hit%28.1%
Avg EV91.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

70 PA
wOBA.284
xwOBA vs this mix.297against pitches like his
RV/100-0.76
Hard-hit%24.9%
K%36.3%
BB%10.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Andrew AlvarezLHP · WSH vs NYM
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.5 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 32.3%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 13.3%13%67 strikeouts: 8.8%9%78 strikeouts: 5.1%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.7%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.2%
BB%11.3%
Whiff%10.1%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff107
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Curveball33%13482.915.8%
Fastball31%8592.23.4%
Slider17%10484.515.4%
Sinker13%10491.74.4%
Changeup7%9486.611.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199235%15%17%.241
Sep 129731%14%15%.190
Sep 67826%5%26%.300

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Andrew Alvarez WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Francisco Alvarez: every projection we've made →