The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- +0.6% vs neutral air
- Weather
- – · Wind unknown
- Park factor
- Runs 103 · HR 103 100 = average
- Umpire
- Sean Barber
- Schedule
- NYM traveled in; WSH 2d rest; WSH traveled in
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | 92 | 35% | 15% | 17% | .241 |
| Sep 12 | 97 | 31% | 14% | 15% | .190 |
| Sep 6 | 78 | 26% | 5% | 26% | .300 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Andrew Alvarez's pitches | NYM lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Curveball | 33% | 82.9 | 134 | 15.8% | 2.17 | .271 | 11.3% | 29.5% | -1.46 |
| Fastball | 31% | 92.2 | 85 | 3.4% | 0.61 | .310 | 9.7% | 30.7% | -0.37 |
| Slider | 17% | 84.5 | 104 | 15.4% | 0.44 | .275 | 12.5% | 25.8% | -0.46 |
| Sinker | 13% | 91.7 | 104 | 4.4% | 1.09 | .345 | 5.8% | 34.0% | +0.07 |
| Changeup | 7% | 86.6 | 94 | 11.5% | 2.02 | .268 | 15.2% | 22.1% | -0.38 |
| Jefry Yan's pitches | WSH lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Sinker | 44% | 97.7 | 127 | 7.5% | -0.53 | .371 | 5.5% | 31.4% | +1.94 |
| Fastball | 26% | 97.5 | 125 | 13.1% | -3.41 | .386 | 9.8% | 27.3% | +1.90 |
| Slider | 21% | 86.4 | 117 | 23.2% | 1.10 | .343 | 17.1% | 15.9% | -0.15 |
| Changeup | 9% | 89.0 | 98 | 35.5% | 4.66 | .292 | 18.8% | 19.4% | -0.72 |
Bullpens
Pitched yesterday: Thornton, Warren, Weisenburger.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 21% | 40% | 42.1% | 27.8% | 21.6% |
| Fastball | 26% | 22% | 25.0% | 30.0% | 18.6% |
| Sinker | 44% | 22% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 17.7% |
| Changeup | 9% | 17% | 66.7% | 46.7% | 18.3% |
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curveball | 33% | 49% | 40.2% | 28.6% | 21.2% |
| Fastball | 30% | 23% | 6.5% | 12.7% | 18.6% |
| Slider | 17% | 17% | 31.2% | 19.2% | 21.6% |
| Changeup | 7% | 8% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 18.3% |
| Sinker | 13% | 3% | 20.0% | 30.0% | 17.7% |
Mets lineup
Confirmed · facing Andrew Alvarez LHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Lindor SS · bats S | 62.9% | 38.1% | 13.5% | 4.0 | -1.0 | .314 | A | Power | Normal |
| 2 | Juan Soto LF · bats L | 60.2% | 36.9% | 14.6% | 3.9 | -2.1 | .325 | A | Power | Normal |
| 3 | Bo Bichette 3B · bats R | 68.4% | 38.4% | 8.8% | 3.8 | -0.2 | .329 | B | Balanced | Normal |
| 4 | Mark Vientos DH · bats R | 57.7% | 33.8% | 12.0% | 3.8 | +0.1 | .306 | B | Balanced | Normal |
| 5 | Carson Benge RF · bats L | 64.8% | 34.5% | 9.8% | 3.7 | -0.3 | .313 | Avg | Balanced | Hot |
| 6 | Francisco Alvarez C · bats R | 54.9% | 32.0% | 13.1% | 3.6 | -0.2 | .284 | B | Balanced | Hot |
| 7 | Marcus Semien 2B · bats R | 58.4% | 30.5% | 8.1% | 3.5 | -0.7 | .303 | C | Contact | Normal |
| 8 | A.J. Ewing CF · bats L | 57.3% | 28.3% | 7.1% | 3.4 | -0.8 | .335 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
| 9 | Christopher Morel 1B · bats R | 49.8% | 27.7% | 10.8% | 3.3 | -0.6 | .283 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
Nationals lineup
Confirmed · facing Jefry Yan LHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood DH · bats L | 63.5% | 40.9% | 16.8% | 4.0 | -0.1 | .356 | A | Power | Cold |
| 2 | Andrés Chaparro 1B · bats R | 61.1% | 39.8% | 16.2% | 3.9 | +0.8 | .408 | C | Power | Cold |
| 3 | Brady House 3B · bats R | 66.1% | 39.2% | 10.9% | 3.8 | +0.3 | .384 | B | Power | Normal |
| 4 | Dylan Crews RF · bats R | 59.9% | 35.4% | 12.7% | 3.8 | +0.3 | .325 | Avg | Balanced | Hot |
| 5 | CJ Abrams SS · bats L | 58.3% | 36.1% | 13.2% | 3.7 | -0.9 | .289 | C | Balanced | Hot |
| 6 | Jacob Young CF · bats R | 59.5% | 31.1% | 5.6% | 3.6 | +0.2 | .408 | C | Contact | Hot |
| 7 | Daylen Lile LF · bats L | 62.4% | 38.9% | 13.9% | 3.5 | -0.7 | .299 | B | Power | Cold |
| 8 | Keibert Ruiz C · bats S | 63.4% | 34.5% | 6.6% | 3.4 | +0.2 | .315 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
| 9 | Jorbit Vivas 2B · bats L | 50.1% | 23.7% | 4.1% | 3.3 | -0.5 | .299 | D | Contact | Cold |