MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 25, 2026
5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · WSH · batting 8Keibert Ruiz
Switch hitterTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.315wOBA vs LHP.303xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · NYMJefry Yan
Throws leftBTB Stuff 122Stable
2.6projected K29%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Jefry Yan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 44% usage, 97.6 mph, +14.6″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .355 vs league .356 (about even).Sinker 44%Fastball: 26% usage, 97.5 mph, +4.1″ arm side, +17.2″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .311 vs league .313 (about even).Fastball 26%Slider: 21% usage, 86.4 mph, -4.6″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .295 vs league .296 (about even).Slider 21%Changeup: 9% usage, 89.5 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +7.1″ rise. Keibert Ruiz: wOBA .313 vs league .314 (about even).Changeup 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Keibert Ruiz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Keibert Ruiz's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 92.5 mph at 50°Out: 93.4 mph at 47°Out: 74.1 mph at 68°Single: 97.6 mph at 15°Out: 83.9 mph at 10°Out: 88.6 mph at 25°Single: 98.7 mph at 11°Out: 82.2 mph at 45°Out: 79.6 mph at 24°Out: 90.6 mph at 63°Out: 100.5 mph at 1°Out: 75.5 mph at 35°Out: 89.4 mph at -17°Out: 90.3 mph at -35°Single: 96.2 mph at 12°Out: 78.9 mph at 35°Out: 77.7 mph at 82°Out: 97.1 mph at 2°Out: 80.7 mph at 50°Single: 100.5 mph at 11°Out: 73.6 mph at -20°Single: 62.4 mph at -45°Out: 55.0 mph at 47°Double: 98.4 mph at 26°Single: 88.8 mph at -5°Home run: 104.6 mph at 29°Out: 45.8 mph at -47°Out: 85.8 mph at -24°Out: 87.6 mph at -1°Out: 65.3 mph at 51°Out: 99.0 mph at 34°Out: 85.9 mph at 57°Single: 103.8 mph at 2°Double: 103.3 mph at 14°Out: 98.2 mph at 32°Out: 81.9 mph at -21°Single: 101.6 mph at 16°Single: 86.5 mph at 13°Out: 90.4 mph at -8°Out: 85.1 mph at 44°
33% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.4%63.2%+0.2
2+ total bases34.5%34.3%+0.3
Home run6.6%6.4%+0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Keibert Ruiz hits
Keibert Ruiz · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .268 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 3 pitches seen.245xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .438 on 2 PA) · league .296 · 11 pitches seen.316xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .018 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 1 pitches seen.236xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .220 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 2 pitches seen.295xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .186 on 5 PA) · league .385 · 7 pitches seen.326xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .272 on 1 PA) · league .340 · 5 pitches seen.335xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .504 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 7 pitches seen.319xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .350 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .391 shrunk (raw .758 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 6 pitches seen.391xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .062 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 6 pitches seen.284xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .346 · 12 pitches seenxwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .311 on 5 PA) · league .289 · 17 pitches seen.295xwOBA .194 shrunk (raw .068 on 6 PA) · league .257 · 17 pitches seen.194
vs LHP · 98 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 56% of 9 swings · league 48%56%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 34%14%
vs LHP · 98 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 71%73%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 64%100%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 67%100%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 20% of 5 pitches · league 72%20%Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 59%43%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 68%25%Swings at 50% of 6 pitches · league 66%50%Swings at 17% of 6 pitches · league 30%17%Swings at 8% of 12 pitches · league 26%8%Swings at 53% of 17 pitches · league 31%53%Swings at 41% of 17 pitches · league 41%41%
vs LHP · 98 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Keibert Ruiz against each of Jefry Yan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker44%97.6+15″ / +12″.355.35614.1%18.3%7Little history vs this shape
Fastball26%97.5+4″ / +17″.311.31315.6%20.1%3Little history vs this shape
Slider21%86.4-5″ / -3″.295.29633.8%33.5%3Little history vs this shape
Changeup9%89.5+13″ / +7″.313.31424.2%26.8%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Keibert Ruiz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.667.667.667.600.5430.0%0.0%16.7%96.698.70.0%66.7%66.7%
Last 15 G57.500.571.500.486.4220.0%0.0%9.1%85.398.70.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G912.500.583.500.492.4230.0%8.3%5.6%86.698.710.0%30.0%40.0%
90 days1930.259.333.370.317.28713.3%6.7%15.9%85.4101.68.7%26.1%26.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 23 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 17%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.077.077.077.069.2140.0%0.0%5.9%86.3100.50.0%15.4%30.8%
Last 15 G1544.273.273.477.327.2856.8%0.0%16.9%87.2104.65.0%30.0%35.0%
Last 30 G3094.318.362.466.377.3377.4%6.4%15.1%87.5108.72.5%35.0%36.2%
90 days47143.293.336.429.350.3135.6%6.3%11.4%87.2108.72.4%34.4%40.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 125 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 26%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.188.188.188.169.2760.0%0.0%8.7%88.2100.50.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1551.300.314.480.349.3045.9%0.0%16.0%86.9104.64.3%30.4%34.8%
Last 30 G30106.337.387.469.390.3476.6%6.6%14.1%87.4108.73.3%34.4%36.7%
90 days48173.288.335.419.344.3096.9%6.4%12.1%86.9108.73.4%33.1%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 148 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 25%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 14%
Keibert Ruiz · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating70Above average
Last 100 pitches86trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.350 / .335results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter82.392.550.012Out
Sep 25LHPSinker93.893.447.017Out
Sep 25RHPFastball91.974.168.000Out
Sep 25LHPSweeper82.197.615.758Single
Sep 22RHPFastball94.583.910.461Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.188.625.087Out
Sep 22LHPSinker89.298.711.855Single
Sep 21RHPSinker94.182.245.031Out
Sep 21RHPFastball97.479.624.476Out
Sep 21RHPChangeup84.890.663.003Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper80.1100.51.453Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup87.475.535.135Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411000
Sep 22311000
Sep 21300000
Sep 20100000
Sep 19511000
Sep 16200000
Sep 13411000
Sep 12434000
Sep 9414100
Sep 7300000

Two strikes

Jefry Yan NYM · LHPwith two strikes
Jefry Yan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider21%40%42.1%27.8%21.6%
Fastball26%22%25.0%30.0%18.6%
Sinker44%22%9.1%10.0%17.7%
Changeup9%17%66.7%46.7%18.3%
Keibert Ruiz bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Keibert Ruiz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.1%41.5%
Whiff%21.6%21.6%
Contact%78.4%78.4%
Chase%43.1%39.9%
wOBA.252.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.6%24.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.315
K%8.5%
BB%5.4%
Whiff%7.6%
Barrel%2.5%
Hard-hit%27.8%
Avg EV86.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

28 PA
wOBA.315
xwOBA vs this mix.303against pitches like his
RV/100-0.09
Hard-hit%23.5%
K%18.5%
BB%6.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jefry YanLHP · NYM vs WSH
2.6projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 10.4 batters over 2.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 74.0%74%≤34 strikeouts: 14.0%14%45 strikeouts: 7.2%7%56 strikeouts: 3.1%3%67 strikeouts: 1.2%1%78 strikeouts: 0.4%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%28.7%
BB%14.9%
Whiff%14.8%
Velo94.5
BTB Stuff122
Location94
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker44%12797.77.5%
Fastball26%12597.513.1%
Slider21%11786.423.2%
Changeup9%9889.035.5%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jefry Yan NYM · LHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Keibert Ruiz: every projection we've made →