MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · DET · batting 9John Peck
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.266wOBA vs RHP.337xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · PITBubba Chandler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 105Trending Down
5.0projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Bubba Chandler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 47% usage, 98.2 mph, +10.2″ arm side, +16.6″ rise. John Peck: wOBA .333 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 47%Slider: 25% usage, 92.0 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. John Peck: wOBA .307 vs league .317 (about even).Slider 25%Changeup: 11% usage, 91.1 mph, +16.3″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. John Peck: wOBA .337 vs league .346 (about even).Changeup 11%Sinker: 10% usage, 97.6 mph, +14.9″ arm side, +11.6″ rise. John Peck: wOBA .336 vs league .345 (about even).Sinker 10%Curveball: 6% usage, 87.3 mph, -1.3″ arm side, -1.9″ rise. John Peck: wOBA .286 vs league .295 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is John Peck's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.9%52.2%-1.4
2+ total bases25.4%27.0%-1.5
Home run7.4%8.3%-1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

John Peck against each of Bubba Chandler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball47%98.2+10″ / +17″.333.34318.0%19.0%10About league average vs these
Slider25%92.0-1″ / +5″.307.31725.8%25.5%11About league average vs these
Changeup11%91.1+16″ / +6″.337.34614.1%13.3%11About league average vs these
Sinker10%97.6+15″ / +12″.336.34511.7%12.3%13About league average vs these
Curveball6%87.3-1″ / -2″.286.29532.0%31.7%8Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating76Above average
Last 100 pitches40trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.248 / .343running 95 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases0/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Bubba Chandler PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Bubba Chandler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball47%48%19.5%18.1%18.0%
Slider25%28%18.3%13.8%21.1%
Changeup11%13%16.7%14.0%18.6%
Curveball6%6%23.1%16.0%20.0%
Sinker10%5%11.1%26.3%17.0%
Sweeper1%1%–0.0%19.3%
John Peck bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
John Peck with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.0%42.4%
Whiff%23.4%22.2%
Contact%76.6%77.8%
Chase%37.4%39.9%
wOBA.236.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.9%19.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.300
K%22.7%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%26.0%
Avg EV88.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

48 PA
wOBA.266
xwOBA vs this mix.337against pitches like his
RV/100-1.20
Hard-hit%28.8%
K%20.6%
BB%10.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bubba ChandlerRHP · PIT vs DET
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.3 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.2%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.6%18%45 strikeouts: 17.5%18%56 strikeouts: 14.4%14%67 strikeouts: 10.2%10%78 strikeouts: 6.4%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.7%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.2%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.0%
Velo95.1
BTB Stuff105
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball47%11098.29.6%
Slider25%10892.28.1%
Changeup11%8790.97.0%
Sinker10%9897.52.4%
Curveball6%9587.36.3%
Sweeper1%10387.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199029%10%29%.462
Sep 139013%3%30%.380
Sep 89538%15%29%.240

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bubba Chandler PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.John Peck: every projection we've made →