MLBengine v14
← Sep 25, 2026 slate

Pirates at Tigers

5:40 PM CT · Live · Comerica Park · Weather data unavailable.

The game

PIT runs4.5win 51%
DET runs4.3win 49%
Total8.8no pre-game book line
No run, 1st inning52%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air
Carry
+0.7% vs neutral air
Weather
– · Wind unknown
Park factor
Runs 100 · HR 100 100 = average
Umpire
Jonathan Parra
Schedule
PIT traveled in; DET 2d rest

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

PIT starter
Bubba ChandlerRHP · PIT vs DET
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.3 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.2%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.6%18%45 strikeouts: 17.5%18%56 strikeouts: 14.4%14%67 strikeouts: 10.2%10%78 strikeouts: 6.4%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.7%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.2%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.0%
Velo95.1
BTB Stuff105
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball47%11098.29.6%
Slider25%10892.28.1%
Changeup11%8790.97.0%
Sinker10%9897.52.4%
Curveball6%9587.36.3%
Sweeper1%10387.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199029%10%29%.462
Sep 139013%3%30%.380
Sep 89538%15%29%.240

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bubba Chandler PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

DET starter
Jackson JobeRHP · DET vs PIT
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.7%23%≤34 strikeouts: 16.3%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.6%12%78 strikeouts: 7.7%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.1%9%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.9%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo92.5
BTB Stuff106
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%11497.66.8%
Slider25%11589.712.9%
Sinker18%9495.95.6%
Curveball13%9784.712.6%
Changeup10%8586.312.9%
Cutter2%11793.716.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199638%15%21%.277
Sep 138733%16%13%.226
Sep 69333%8%10%.340

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jackson Jobe DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces
Jackson Jobe DET · RHPvsPIT lineuppitch-mix battle
Jackson Jobe's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
Jackson Jobe's pitchesPIT lineup vs that pitch
PitchUsageVeloBTB StuffWhiff%RV/100wOBAWhiff%Hard-hit%Edge
Fastball32%97.61146.8%-2.21.34111.4%27.8%+1.02
Slider25%89.711512.9%-0.06.30316.3%19.8%-0.46
Sinker18%95.9945.6%3.78.3696.6%30.2%-0.07
Curveball13%84.79712.6%-0.08.37314.8%24.6%+0.42
Changeup10%86.38512.9%-3.32.26315.7%21.2%-0.08
Cutter2%93.711716.7%-1.64.38312.2%31.1%+0.09
Bubba Chandler PIT · RHPvsDET lineuppitch-mix battle
Bubba Chandler's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
Bubba Chandler's pitchesDET lineup vs that pitch
PitchUsageVeloBTB StuffWhiff%RV/100wOBAWhiff%Hard-hit%Edge
Fastball47%98.21109.6%-0.55.3857.2%29.7%+2.50
Slider25%92.21088.1%0.95.29314.1%24.2%-0.79
Changeup11%90.9877.0%-0.90.24618.2%16.9%-0.54
Sinker10%97.5982.4%-0.77.4024.0%31.9%+0.69
Curveball6%87.3956.3%-1.60.26811.3%25.9%-0.03

Bullpens

Pirates bullpen#8 of 30
K%23.5%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.4%
SwStr%10.5%
wOBA allowed.292
Arms available17 / 17

Pitched yesterday: Skenes, Soto, Montgomery, Ramírez, Weaver.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Tigers bullpen#21 of 30
K%19.3%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%9.5%
SwStr%10.2%
wOBA allowed.304
Arms available18 / 18

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters
Bubba Chandler PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Bubba Chandler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball47%48%19.5%18.1%18.0%
Slider25%28%18.3%13.8%21.1%
Changeup11%13%16.7%14.0%18.6%
Curveball6%6%23.1%16.0%20.0%
Sinker10%5%11.1%26.3%17.0%
Sweeper1%1%–0.0%19.3%
Jackson Jobe DET · RHPwith two strikes
Jackson Jobe with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball32%31%16.7%20.0%18.0%
Curveball13%24%30.8%27.7%20.0%
Slider25%20%25.0%22.5%21.1%
Changeup10%16%26.3%15.6%18.6%
Sinker18%8%0.0%20.0%17.0%
Cutter2%2%33.3%33.3%17.9%

Pirates lineup

Confirmed · facing Jackson Jobe RHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Konnor Griffin SS · bats R63.1%34.7%8.4%4.0-1.2.276AvgBalancedNormal
2Brandon Lowe 2B · bats L62.9%38.9%18.5%3.9-0.0.373BPowerHot
3Bryan Reynolds LF · bats S59.0%35.2%12.9%3.8-0.6.321BBalancedNormal
4Oneil Cruz CF · bats L58.2%35.9%17.3%3.8+1.0.429ABalancedHot
5Nick Gonzales 3B · bats R67.4%35.9%6.4%3.7+0.7.374BContactNormal
6Ryan O'Hearn DH · bats L60.2%35.9%12.7%3.6+0.5.362BBalancedNormal
7Rafael Flores Jr. C · bats R58.4%35.1%14.9%3.5-0.4.372BPowerNormal
8Spencer Horwitz 1B · bats L54.9%26.4%5.6%3.4-1.4.217FBalancedNormal
9Jake Mangum RF · bats S54.9%25.6%5.3%3.3-0.7.313FBalancedHot
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.

Tigers lineup

Confirmed · facing Bubba Chandler RHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Max Clark CF · bats L65.1%35.2%8.7%4.0+0.0.316DBalancedNormal
2Hao-Yu Lee 2B · bats R64.0%37.4%12.2%3.9+1.1.365BPowerNormal
3Kevin McGonigle 3B · bats L67.2%40.2%14.2%3.8+1.1.378BContactHot
4Eduardo Valencia DH · bats R67.0%39.7%14.0%3.8-0.5.404BPowerHot
5Riley Greene LF · bats L63.8%44.2%22.3%3.7+1.0.389BPowerNormal
6Dillon Dingler C · bats R60.2%32.6%9.1%3.6-0.7.308FBalancedHot
7Brett Callahan RF · bats L54.0%29.5%10.1%3.5-0.4.283AvgBalancedCold
8Spencer Torkelson 1B · bats R53.0%29.9%12.6%3.4+0.2.364CBalancedHot
9John Peck SS · bats R50.9%25.4%7.4%3.3-1.4.266AvgBalancedNormal
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.