MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PIT · batting 5Nick Gonzales
Bats rightTalent grade BContactNormal
.374wOBA vs RHP.337xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · DETJackson Jobe
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Trending Up
5.3projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jackson Jobe's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 97.6 mph, +7.1″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Nick Gonzales: wOBA .359 vs league .339 (hitter's edge).Fastball 32%Slider: 25% usage, 89.6 mph, -6.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Nick Gonzales: wOBA .301 vs league .280 (hitter's edge).Slider 25%Sinker: 18% usage, 95.9 mph, +14.6″ arm side, +6.9″ rise. Nick Gonzales: wOBA .367 vs league .346 (hitter's edge).Sinker 18%Curveball: 13% usage, 85.4 mph, -5.5″ arm side, -10.8″ rise. Nick Gonzales: wOBA .302 vs league .282 (hitter's edge).Curveball 13%Changeup: 10% usage, 86.3 mph, +15.4″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Nick Gonzales: wOBA .335 vs league .315 (hitter's edge).Changeup 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nick Gonzales's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.4%66.7%+0.7
2+ total bases35.9%35.1%+0.8
Home run6.4%6.0%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Nick Gonzales against each of Jackson Jobe's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%97.6+7″ / +16″.359.33919.1%21.2%34About league average vs these
Slider25%89.6-6″ / +1″.301.28029.5%32.4%27About league average vs these
Sinker18%95.9+15″ / +7″.367.34610.3%11.3%52About league average vs these
Curveball13%85.4-6″ / -11″.302.28227.5%30.6%14About league average vs these
Changeup10%86.3+15″ / +7″.335.31523.4%26.2%27About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating74Above average
Last 100 pitches27trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.365 / .339running 26 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Jackson Jobe DET · RHPwith two strikes
Jackson Jobe with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball32%31%16.7%20.0%18.0%
Curveball13%24%30.8%27.7%20.0%
Slider25%20%25.0%22.5%21.1%
Changeup10%16%26.3%15.6%18.6%
Sinker18%8%0.0%20.0%17.0%
Cutter2%2%33.3%33.3%17.9%
Nick Gonzales bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nick Gonzales with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.8%42.4%
Whiff%20.3%22.2%
Contact%79.7%77.8%
Chase%39.5%39.9%
wOBA.272.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.7%23.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.344
K%15.1%
BB%8.4%
Whiff%10.1%
Barrel%1.8%
Hard-hit%23.9%
Avg EV87.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

187 PA
wOBA.374
xwOBA vs this mix.337against pitches like his
RV/1001.35
Hard-hit%23.3%
K%16.5%
BB%8.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jackson JobeRHP · DET vs PIT
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.7%23%≤34 strikeouts: 16.3%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.6%12%78 strikeouts: 7.7%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.1%9%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.9%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo92.5
BTB Stuff106
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%11497.66.8%
Slider25%11589.712.9%
Sinker18%9495.95.6%
Curveball13%9784.712.6%
Changeup10%8586.312.9%
Cutter2%11793.716.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199638%15%21%.277
Sep 138733%16%13%.226
Sep 69333%8%10%.340

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jackson Jobe DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nick Gonzales: every projection we've made →