MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PIT · batting 4Oneil Cruz
Bats leftTalent grade ABalancedHot
.429wOBA vs RHP.372xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · DETJackson Jobe
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Trending Up
5.3projected K25%K%2.5trips vs this hitter
Jackson Jobe's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 97.6 mph, +7.1″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Oneil Cruz: wOBA .362 vs league .343 (hitter's edge).Fastball 32%Slider: 25% usage, 89.6 mph, -6.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Oneil Cruz: wOBA .338 vs league .319 (hitter's edge).Slider 25%Sinker: 18% usage, 95.9 mph, +14.6″ arm side, +6.9″ rise. Oneil Cruz: wOBA .370 vs league .351 (hitter's edge).Sinker 18%Curveball: 13% usage, 85.4 mph, -5.5″ arm side, -10.8″ rise. Oneil Cruz: wOBA .313 vs league .294 (hitter's edge).Curveball 13%Changeup: 10% usage, 86.3 mph, +15.4″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Oneil Cruz: wOBA .314 vs league .295 (hitter's edge).Changeup 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Oneil Cruz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Oneil Cruz's last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 100.0 mph at -20°Single: 100.5 mph at 2°Single: 111.3 mph at 7°Out: 88.0 mph at 48°Double: 108.9 mph at 14°Out: 103.3 mph at -5°Out: 66.1 mph at -69°Out: 81.2 mph at 31°Out: 110.9 mph at 51°Home run: 104.5 mph at 32°Out: 75.4 mph at -35°Out: 54.5 mph at 33°Single: 95.3 mph at 8°Single: 70.6 mph at 43°Single: 51.7 mph at -60°Out: 88.1 mph at 4°Double: 98.6 mph at 3°Single: 81.1 mph at -53°Single: 84.8 mph at 10°Out: 74.0 mph at -54°Out: 86.3 mph at -25°Home run: 113.1 mph at 19°Single: 76.4 mph at -45°Out: 93.7 mph at -33°Single: 81.8 mph at 16°Out: 100.8 mph at -16°Out: 95.5 mph at 40°Out: 95.2 mph at 19°Out: 84.0 mph at 5°Out: 107.4 mph at -6°Single: 79.3 mph at 17°Out: 88.5 mph at 24°Home run: 117.4 mph at 25°Single: 99.6 mph at -33°Single: 80.7 mph at 9°Single: 95.5 mph at 9°Out: 61.3 mph at 17°Out: 76.3 mph at -6°Single: 85.9 mph at 5°Out: 101.8 mph at -15°
45% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.2%57.2%+1.0
2+ total bases35.9%33.9%+2.0
Home run17.3%14.6%+2.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
+1.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
+1.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Oneil Cruz hits
Oneil Cruz · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .210 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 16 pitches seen.261xwOBA .404 shrunk (raw 1.566 on 1 PA) · league .307 · 12 pitches seen.404xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .233 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 12 pitches seen.257xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .032 on 6 PA) · league .342 · 15 pitches seen.239xwOBA .555 shrunk (raw .844 on 7 PA) · league .386 · 18 pitches seen.555xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .255 on 6 PA) · league .321 · 16 pitches seen.299xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .202 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 14 pitches seen.287xwOBA .405 shrunk (raw .498 on 7 PA) · league .351 · 20 pitches seen.405xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .424 on 5 PA) · league .292 · 16 pitches seen.331xwOBA .411 shrunk (raw .462 on 8 PA) · league .377 · 54 pitches seen.411xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .475 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 30 pitches seen.348xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .173 on 16 PA) · league .263 · 68 pitches seen.212xwOBA .377 shrunk (raw .582 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 43 pitches seen.377
vs RHP · 334 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 20%33%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 10%25%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 11%20%Whiff 50% of 8 swings · league 14%50%Whiff 30% of 10 swings · league 13%30%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 28%10%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 24%8%Whiff 55% of 20 swings · league 32%55%Whiff 78% of 9 swings · league 49%78%
vs RHP · 334 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 16 pitches · league 62%50%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 72%75%Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 66%58%Swings at 53% of 15 pitches · league 70%53%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 76%67%Swings at 63% of 16 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 65%57%Swings at 50% of 20 pitches · league 68%50%Swings at 38% of 16 pitches · league 60%38%Swings at 19% of 54 pitches · league 24%19%Swings at 43% of 30 pitches · league 34%43%Swings at 29% of 68 pitches · league 40%29%Swings at 21% of 43 pitches · league 32%21%
vs RHP · 334 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Oneil Cruz against each of Jackson Jobe's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%97.6+7″ / +16″.362.34319.4%18.3%12About league average vs these
Slider25%89.6-6″ / +1″.338.31934.1%28.2%10About league average vs these
Sinker18%95.9+15″ / +7″.370.35113.2%12.5%13About league average vs these
Curveball13%85.4-6″ / -11″.313.29437.8%31.7%8About league average vs these
Changeup10%86.3+15″ / +7″.314.29535.5%26.6%15About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Oneil Cruz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.250.455.750.486.4849.1%18.2%25.0%89.4110.914.3%57.1%42.9%
Last 15 G1436.290.389.645.471.41025.0%11.1%36.4%91.3117.419.0%52.4%38.1%
Last 30 G2774.279.405.557.433.37727.0%16.2%31.7%90.6117.417.5%42.5%37.5%
90 days2980.288.412.591.446.39027.5%16.2%30.0%90.3117.418.6%41.9%39.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 19%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.444.444.444.400.27622.2%0.0%6.2%92.1111.30.0%57.1%14.3%
Last 15 G1429.444.483.481.433.32320.7%6.9%11.6%89.5115.90.0%42.9%33.3%
Last 30 G2555.353.400.431.371.28930.9%7.3%25.3%90.8115.95.9%44.1%32.4%
90 days2656.346.393.423.364.28332.1%7.1%25.8%90.8115.95.9%44.1%32.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 34 balls in play
Ground 65%Line drive 24%Fly ball 12%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.353.450.588.447.39015.0%10.0%15.6%90.8111.37.1%57.1%28.6%
Last 15 G1565.362.431.569.454.37023.1%9.2%25.5%90.4117.49.5%47.6%35.7%
Last 30 G30129.312.403.500.406.33928.7%12.4%28.9%90.7117.412.2%43.2%35.1%
90 days32136.314.404.517.412.34629.4%12.5%28.3%90.5117.413.0%42.9%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 77 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 21%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 3%
Oneil Cruz · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating82Excellent
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.412 / .354running 58 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider86.7100.0-20.144Out
Sep 25LHPSinker92.8100.52.432Single
Sep 24LHPFastball90.3111.37.683Single
Sep 24LHPFastball95.688.048.008Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup88.7108.914.834Double
Sep 24LHPFastball90.1103.3-5.378Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball77.066.1-69.254Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball80.481.231.093Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.7110.951.142Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball75.2104.5321.566Home run
Sep 20LHPSinker90.275.4-35.057Out
Sep 20RHPSlider86.354.533.165Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411011
Sep 24423000
Sep 22400011
Sep 20414100
Sep 19422001
Sep 18534001
Sep 17511002
Sep 16525102
Sep 15400004
Sep 13511030

Two strikes

Jackson Jobe DET · RHPwith two strikes
Jackson Jobe with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball32%31%16.7%20.0%18.0%
Curveball13%24%30.8%27.7%20.0%
Slider25%20%25.0%22.5%21.1%
Changeup10%16%26.3%15.6%18.6%
Sinker18%8%0.0%20.0%17.0%
Cutter2%2%33.3%33.3%17.9%
Oneil Cruz bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Oneil Cruz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.4%41.0%
Whiff%23.2%21.3%
Contact%76.8%78.7%
Chase%38.2%39.6%
wOBA.259.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.6%22.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeABalanced type
wOBA.353
K%29.6%
BB%11.6%
Whiff%10.7%
Barrel%7.8%
Hard-hit%26.6%
Avg EV91.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

78 PA
wOBA.429
xwOBA vs this mix.372against pitches like his
RV/1001.87
Hard-hit%22.5%
K%27.7%
BB%11.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jackson JobeRHP · DET vs PIT
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.7%23%≤34 strikeouts: 16.3%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.6%12%78 strikeouts: 7.7%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.1%9%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.9%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo92.5
BTB Stuff106
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%11497.66.8%
Slider25%11589.712.9%
Sinker18%9495.95.6%
Curveball13%9784.712.6%
Changeup10%8586.312.9%
Cutter2%11793.716.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199638%15%21%.277
Sep 138733%16%13%.226
Sep 69333%8%10%.340

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jackson Jobe DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Oneil Cruz: every projection we've made →