MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PIT · batting 6Ryan O'Hearn
Bats leftTalent grade BBalancedNormal
.362wOBA vs RHP.335xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · DETJackson Jobe
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Trending Up
5.3projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jackson Jobe's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 97.6 mph, +7.1″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Ryan O'Hearn: wOBA .353 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 32%Slider: 25% usage, 89.6 mph, -6.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Ryan O'Hearn: wOBA .329 vs league .319 (about even).Slider 25%Sinker: 18% usage, 95.9 mph, +14.6″ arm side, +6.9″ rise. Ryan O'Hearn: wOBA .361 vs league .351 (about even).Sinker 18%Curveball: 13% usage, 85.4 mph, -5.5″ arm side, -10.8″ rise. Ryan O'Hearn: wOBA .304 vs league .294 (about even).Curveball 13%Changeup: 10% usage, 86.3 mph, +15.4″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Ryan O'Hearn: wOBA .305 vs league .295 (about even).Changeup 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ryan O'Hearn's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ryan O'Hearn's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 89.0 mph at -12°Single: 100.6 mph at 18°Single: 89.8 mph at 11°Out: 100.2 mph at 22°Out: 103.4 mph at 37°Double: 99.3 mph at 45°Double: 96.8 mph at 22°Out: 69.8 mph at 12°Single: 88.9 mph at 6°Out: 101.9 mph at 4°Out: 91.1 mph at -8°Out: 61.8 mph at 64°Single: 103.6 mph at 2°Out: 88.8 mph at 6°Out: 62.8 mph at 63°Out: 69.5 mph at 2°Out: 92.8 mph at -11°Out: 88.3 mph at 8°Single: 103.2 mph at 13°Out: 90.4 mph at -29°Single: 77.7 mph at 20°Single: 89.3 mph at -33°Out: 94.0 mph at 10°Out: 79.0 mph at -31°Out: 93.8 mph at 5°Out: 89.6 mph at 10°Home run: 99.8 mph at 37°Out: 80.7 mph at -18°Out: 65.9 mph at -16°Out: 100.4 mph at 37°Out: 97.8 mph at 51°Out: 69.2 mph at 62°Single: 86.8 mph at -10°Out: 92.2 mph at -24°Out: 78.7 mph at -5°Out: 97.4 mph at 26°Out: 86.4 mph at 73°Out: 91.3 mph at 48°Out: 72.2 mph at -18°Out: 99.8 mph at -11°
33% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.2%59.7%+0.5
2+ total bases35.9%34.9%+1.1
Home run12.7%11.2%+1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ryan O'Hearn hits
Ryan O'Hearn · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .402 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.317xwOBA .397 shrunk (raw .666 on 4 PA) · league .307 · 15 pitches seen.397xwOBA .198 shrunk (raw .041 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 7 pitches seen.198xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .297 on 6 PA) · league .342 · 19 pitches seen.327xwOBA .408 shrunk (raw .430 on 12 PA) · league .386 · 29 pitches seen.408xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .255 on 10 PA) · league .321 · 23 pitches seen.291xwOBA .401 shrunk (raw .540 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 15 pitches seen.401xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .374 on 7 PA) · league .351 · 18 pitches seen.359xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .183 on 8 PA) · league .292 · 17 pitches seen.248xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .209 on 7 PA) · league .377 · 60 pitches seen.315xwOBA .220 shrunk (raw .057 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 26 pitches seen.220xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .343 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 54 pitches seen.295xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .426 on 17 PA) · league .274 · 73 pitches seen.363
vs RHP · 376 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 35% of 17 swings · league 22%35%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 20%14%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 10%10%Whiff 0% of 23 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 11%5%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 14%18%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 50% of 14 swings · league 28%50%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 24%10%Whiff 30% of 20 swings · league 32%30%Whiff 61% of 18 swings · league 49%61%
vs RHP · 376 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 85% of 20 pitches · league 62%85%Swings at 93% of 15 pitches · league 72%93%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 66%71%Swings at 53% of 19 pitches · league 70%53%Swings at 79% of 29 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 91% of 23 pitches · league 70%91%Swings at 73% of 15 pitches · league 65%73%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 68%67%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 60%71%Swings at 23% of 60 pitches · league 24%23%Swings at 39% of 26 pitches · league 34%39%Swings at 37% of 54 pitches · league 40%37%Swings at 25% of 73 pitches · league 32%25%
vs RHP · 376 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ryan O'Hearn against each of Jackson Jobe's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%97.6+7″ / +16″.353.34317.4%18.3%17About league average vs these
Slider25%89.6-6″ / +1″.329.31929.4%28.2%16About league average vs these
Sinker18%95.9+15″ / +7″.361.35111.6%12.5%19About league average vs these
Curveball13%85.4-6″ / -11″.304.29433.3%31.7%8Little history vs this shape
Changeup10%86.3+15″ / +7″.305.29526.1%26.6%13About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ryan O'Hearn · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.273.333.273.358.34916.7%8.3%14.3%88.8103.611.1%33.3%22.2%
Last 15 G1336.250.333.344.333.28316.7%8.3%23.9%86.8103.63.8%30.8%23.1%
Last 30 G2567.207.299.345.301.27822.4%9.0%23.5%86.9104.34.5%38.6%27.3%
90 days35103.286.359.516.389.34220.4%8.7%21.4%88.9105.911.4%44.3%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 70 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 17%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.500.571.833.586.30728.6%14.3%30.0%99.2100.60.0%100.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1023.143.217.238.209.24921.7%8.7%22.9%90.7100.60.0%37.5%31.2%
Last 30 G2154.188.278.250.247.28920.4%7.4%20.9%89.8102.55.4%37.8%37.8%
90 days2763.179.270.286.255.27420.6%7.9%19.6%88.7102.54.7%34.9%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 23%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.353.421.471.442.33321.1%10.5%18.4%92.0103.67.7%53.8%38.5%
Last 15 G1559.208.288.302.285.27018.6%8.5%23.5%88.3103.62.4%33.3%26.2%
Last 30 G30121.198.289.302.277.28321.5%8.3%22.3%88.2104.34.9%38.3%32.1%
90 days40166.245.325.429.338.31620.5%8.4%20.7%88.8105.98.8%40.7%36.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 113 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 20%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
Ryan O'Hearn · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating67Above average
Last 100 pitches56trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.327 / .332results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider88.389.0-12.113Out
Sep 25LHPSinker93.3100.618.494Single
Sep 25RHPCurveball88.889.811.606Single
Sep 24LHPFastball94.2100.222.555Out
Sep 24RHPSinker95.1103.437.824Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.399.345.045Double
Sep 23LHPFastball93.396.822.357Double
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.869.812.309Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.588.96.414Single
Sep 22RHPFastball97.3101.94.554Fielder's choice
Sep 22RHPSlider89.291.1-8.162Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.961.864.003Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422001
Sep 24400011
Sep 23324000
Sep 22411001
Sep 20411011
Sep 19400002
Sep 18500011
Sep 16422000
Sep 15411011
Sep 13400001

Two strikes

Jackson Jobe DET · RHPwith two strikes
Jackson Jobe with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball32%31%16.7%20.0%18.0%
Curveball13%24%30.8%27.7%20.0%
Slider25%20%25.0%22.5%21.1%
Changeup10%16%26.3%15.6%18.6%
Sinker18%8%0.0%20.0%17.0%
Cutter2%2%33.3%33.3%17.9%
Ryan O'Hearn bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ryan O'Hearn with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.0%41.0%
Whiff%21.3%21.3%
Contact%78.7%78.7%
Chase%36.1%39.6%
wOBA.250.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.7%22.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.344
K%20.0%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%10.1%
Barrel%5.4%
Hard-hit%27.7%
Avg EV88.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

106 PA
wOBA.362
xwOBA vs this mix.335against pitches like his
RV/1000.42
Hard-hit%29.0%
K%20.3%
BB%8.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jackson JobeRHP · DET vs PIT
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.7%23%≤34 strikeouts: 16.3%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.6%12%78 strikeouts: 7.7%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.1%9%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.9%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo92.5
BTB Stuff106
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%11497.66.8%
Slider25%11589.712.9%
Sinker18%9495.95.6%
Curveball13%9784.712.6%
Changeup10%8586.312.9%
Cutter2%11793.716.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199638%15%21%.277
Sep 138733%16%13%.226
Sep 69333%8%10%.340

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jackson Jobe DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ryan O'Hearn: every projection we've made →