MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIL · batting 6Joey Ortiz
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedCold
.397wOBA vs RHP.311xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · STLMichael McGreevy
Throws rightBTB Stuff 84Trending Up
4.0projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Michael McGreevy's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 23% usage, 92.3 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +12.0″ rise. Joey Ortiz: wOBA .385 vs league .362 (hitter's edge).Fastball 23%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.2 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Joey Ortiz: wOBA .304 vs league .281 (hitter's edge).Changeup 19%Sinker: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.1″ rise. Joey Ortiz: wOBA .373 vs league .349 (hitter's edge).Sinker 16%Curveball: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -11.8″ arm side, -11.4″ rise. Joey Ortiz: wOBA .306 vs league .282 (hitter's edge).Curveball 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 88.5 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +6.1″ rise. Joey Ortiz: wOBA .346 vs league .323 (hitter's edge).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 82.3 mph, -14.8″ arm side, -1.9″ rise. Joey Ortiz: wOBA .307 vs league .284 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 11%Slider: 5% usage, 83.5 mph, -3.2″ arm side, -1.4″ rise. Joey Ortiz: wOBA .328 vs league .305 (hitter's edge).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Joey Ortiz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Joey Ortiz's last 40 balls in playHit (20)Out (20)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 100.4 mph at -15°Single: 104.2 mph at 12°Single: 97.7 mph at -26°Out: 101.2 mph at -10°Single: 76.1 mph at 19°Out: 90.1 mph at -20°Single: 100.0 mph at 14°Out: 60.3 mph at 47°Triple: 87.0 mph at 26°Out: 90.9 mph at 60°Out: 91.6 mph at 61°Single: 84.5 mph at 1°Out: 108.0 mph at -10°Out: 105.0 mph at -14°Out: 84.5 mph at -34°Single: 107.4 mph at -2°Out: 94.8 mph at 29°Single: 74.4 mph at 10°Single: 85.0 mph at 1°Double: 101.9 mph at 14°Out: 106.2 mph at 15°Single: 86.5 mph at 3°Out: 71.7 mph at -13°Home run: 101.7 mph at 28°Single: 94.5 mph at 10°Out: 91.7 mph at 23°Single: 81.7 mph at 9°Single: 104.2 mph at 9°Single: 83.2 mph at 21°Out: 88.5 mph at 24°Single: 109.4 mph at 7°Out: 57.5 mph at 53°Out: 90.6 mph at 5°Single: 84.4 mph at 14°Out: 96.1 mph at 7°Double: 94.9 mph at 19°Out: 99.3 mph at 20°Out: 87.9 mph at -12°Single: 104.5 mph at 10°Out: 95.9 mph at 26°
43% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot50% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.4%63.9%+2.5
2+ total bases35.7%33.7%+2.0
Home run8.5%8.0%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Joey Ortiz hits
Joey Ortiz · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .377 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 26 pitches seen.321xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .184 on 4 PA) · league .307 · 23 pitches seen.276xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .265 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 23 pitches seen.264xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .378 on 16 PA) · league .342 · 30 pitches seen.363xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .376 on 12 PA) · league .386 · 37 pitches seen.381xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .394 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 41 pitches seen.357xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .478 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 23 pitches seen.381xwOBA .366 shrunk (raw .380 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 34 pitches seen.366xwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .163 on 11 PA) · league .292 · 36 pitches seen.230xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .364 on 16 PA) · league .377 · 64 pitches seen.370xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .375 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 36 pitches seen.320xwOBA .197 shrunk (raw .108 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 44 pitches seen.197xwOBA .226 shrunk (raw .195 on 19 PA) · league .274 · 135 pitches seen.226
vs RHP · 552 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 22%21%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 20%7%Whiff 0% of 15 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 15% of 27 swings · league 9%15%Whiff 14% of 21 swings · league 11%14%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 14%8%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 13%12%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 17%6%Whiff 21% of 29 swings · league 28%21%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 42% of 19 swings · league 32%42%Whiff 53% of 32 swings · league 49%53%
vs RHP · 552 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 73% of 26 pitches · league 62%73%Swings at 65% of 23 pitches · league 72%65%Swings at 65% of 23 pitches · league 66%65%Swings at 70% of 30 pitches · league 70%70%Swings at 73% of 37 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 51% of 41 pitches · league 70%51%Swings at 56% of 23 pitches · league 65%56%Swings at 50% of 34 pitches · league 68%50%Swings at 44% of 36 pitches · league 60%44%Swings at 45% of 64 pitches · league 24%45%Swings at 42% of 36 pitches · league 34%42%Swings at 43% of 44 pitches · league 40%43%Swings at 24% of 135 pitches · league 32%24%
vs RHP · 552 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Joey Ortiz against each of Michael McGreevy's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball23%92.3+9″ / +12″.385.36211.5%15.0%52About league average vs these
Changeup19%87.2+14″ / +1″.304.28131.1%30.6%8About league average vs these
Sinker16%91.2+12″ / +4″.373.3499.3%12.2%27About league average vs these
Curveball14%79.2-12″ / -11″.306.28227.6%29.9%8Little history vs this shape
Cutter12%88.5+0″ / +6″.346.32321.5%27.2%22About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper11%82.3-15″ / -2″.307.28426.1%28.8%11About league average vs these
Slider5%83.5-3″ / -1″.328.30528.2%30.7%22About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Joey Ortiz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G415.214.267.214.227.21553.3%6.7%35.7%95.0104.20.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1136.412.444.529.449.30636.1%5.6%31.7%91.7109.44.8%42.9%52.4%
Last 30 G2466.393.424.557.436.31325.8%6.1%27.4%91.8109.44.4%42.2%42.2%
90 days54147.351.390.545.414.31820.4%6.8%19.7%89.6109.45.6%43.0%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 107 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 23%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.500.5001.000.625.25825.0%0.0%14.3%82.4100.00.0%33.3%66.7%
Last 15 G1122.238.273.381.284.28222.7%4.5%14.3%91.4108.00.0%37.5%43.8%
Last 30 G2350.234.280.362.282.26224.0%6.0%15.4%89.8112.22.9%42.9%25.7%
90 days4078.274.321.479.344.28423.1%6.4%15.9%88.5112.23.6%40.0%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 55 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 26%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.278.316.389.311.22447.4%5.3%31.4%90.8104.20.0%55.6%44.4%
Last 15 G1558.345.379.473.386.29731.0%5.2%24.8%91.5109.42.7%40.5%48.6%
Last 30 G30116.324.362.472.369.29125.0%6.0%22.1%90.9112.23.8%42.5%35.0%
90 days62225.324.366.522.390.30621.3%6.7%18.3%89.2112.24.9%42.0%35.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 162 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 24%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 8%
Joey Ortiz · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating47Average
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.383 / .312running 71 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball92.3100.4-15.181Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper81.3104.212.942Single
Sep 25RHPSinker92.397.7-26.147Single
Sep 24RHPSlider87.5101.2-10.261Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper84.076.119.898Single
Sep 23RHPCutter87.190.1-20.095Double play
Sep 23LHPFastball90.3100.014.805Single
Sep 19LHPFastball93.960.347.113Out
Sep 19LHPFastball93.487.026.114Triple
Sep 18LHPSlider88.990.960.024Out
Sep 18LHPFastball91.791.661.014Out
Sep 18LHPSinker96.784.51.243Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422010
Sep 24411002
Sep 23411002
Sep 20400004
Sep 19313001
Sep 18511010
Sep 17511010
Sep 16411003
Sep 15434000
Sep 13314101

Two strikes

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPwith two strikes
Michael McGreevy with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%23%24.4%17.5%18.6%
Fastball23%20%14.6%13.9%18.0%
Curveball14%18%22.9%12.9%20.0%
Sinker16%17%13.2%22.0%17.0%
Sweeper11%12%21.7%13.6%19.3%
Slider5%6%20.0%10.0%21.1%
Cutter12%5%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Joey Ortiz bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Joey Ortiz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.8%42.4%
Whiff%21.3%22.2%
Contact%78.7%77.8%
Chase%43.0%39.9%
wOBA.238.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.6%22.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.343
K%20.9%
BB%6.1%
Whiff%8.8%
Barrel%3.2%
Hard-hit%28.5%
Avg EV88.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

143 PA
wOBA.397
xwOBA vs this mix.311against pitches like his
RV/1001.30
Hard-hit%29.6%
K%21.2%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael McGreevyRHP · STL vs MIL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.9 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.9%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.6%16%56 strikeouts: 10.5%11%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.1%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%8.7%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff84
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball23%6992.34.7%
Changeup19%9287.311.6%
Sinker16%7791.25.8%
Curveball14%9279.210.1%
Cutter12%9488.59.5%
Sweeper11%9282.213.1%
Slider5%8583.511.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19885%9%21%.379
Sep 139026%13%22%.254
Sep 710515%10%26%.291

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Joey Ortiz: every projection we've made →