MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIL · batting 7Luis Lara
Switch hitterTalent grade DBalancedCold
.307wOBA vs RHP.308xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · STLMichael McGreevy
Throws rightBTB Stuff 84Trending Up
4.0projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Michael McGreevy's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 23% usage, 92.3 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +12.0″ rise. Luis Lara: wOBA .364 vs league .369 (about even).Fastball 23%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.2 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Luis Lara: wOBA .277 vs league .282 (about even).Changeup 19%Sinker: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.1″ rise. Luis Lara: wOBA .339 vs league .344 (about even).Sinker 16%Curveball: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -11.8″ arm side, -11.4″ rise. Luis Lara: wOBA .303 vs league .308 (about even).Curveball 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 88.5 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +6.1″ rise. Luis Lara: wOBA .360 vs league .365 (about even).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 82.3 mph, -14.8″ arm side, -1.9″ rise. Luis Lara: wOBA .309 vs league .314 (about even).Sweeper 11%Slider: 5% usage, 83.5 mph, -3.2″ arm side, -1.4″ rise. Luis Lara: wOBA .330 vs league .335 (about even).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Luis Lara's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Luis Lara's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 96.0 mph at -16°Out: 100.0 mph at -2°Out: 88.4 mph at 30°Single: 95.8 mph at 16°Out: 76.6 mph at -45°Out: 81.3 mph at 22°Out: 99.1 mph at -21°Out: 100.8 mph at 17°Single: 74.2 mph at 20°Out: 94.7 mph at -28°Out: 77.9 mph at 59°Out: 87.5 mph at 60°Single: 58.6 mph at -61°Out: 90.1 mph at 6°Out: 42.9 mph at 34°Out: 61.5 mph at -53°Out: 90.7 mph at -30°Out: 71.7 mph at 43°Out: 103.0 mph at -2°Single: 64.1 mph at 14°Out: 93.4 mph at 40°Out: 66.5 mph at -4°Double: 89.8 mph at 15°Out: 104.9 mph at -20°Out: 43.1 mph at 62°Out: 102.7 mph at 2°Out: 59.6 mph at 46°Single: 103.7 mph at 4°Single: 100.5 mph at -13°Out: 100.0 mph at -18°Out: 82.7 mph at -9°Out: 68.8 mph at -4°Single: 74.9 mph at 16°Out: 96.8 mph at 22°Single: 103.0 mph at 3°Out: 83.2 mph at 47°Out: 59.4 mph at -66°Out: 84.1 mph at 63°Out: 106.6 mph at -15°Single: 94.5 mph at 7°
35% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.5%58.9%+1.6
2+ total bases30.8%29.7%+1.1
Home run6.5%6.3%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Luis Lara hits
Luis Lara · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .355 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 24 pitches seen.290xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .275 on 4 PA) · league .307 · 27 pitches seen.299xwOBA .238 shrunk (raw .136 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 18 pitches seen.238xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .196 on 12 PA) · league .342 · 37 pitches seen.269xwOBA .366 shrunk (raw .350 on 15 PA) · league .386 · 39 pitches seen.366xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .302 on 13 PA) · league .321 · 35 pitches seen.311xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .290 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 28 pitches seen.301xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .314 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 32 pitches seen.330xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .245 on 16 PA) · league .292 · 33 pitches seen.265xwOBA .380 shrunk (raw .383 on 12 PA) · league .377 · 97 pitches seen.380xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .185 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 43 pitches seen.248xwOBA .288 shrunk (raw .312 on 13 PA) · league .263 · 84 pitches seen.288xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .416 on 20 PA) · league .274 · 107 pitches seen.363
vs RHP · 604 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 22%9%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 20%23%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 25% of 20 swings · league 10%25%Whiff 4% of 28 swings · league 9%4%Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 11%5%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 14%7%Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 13%21%Whiff 8% of 24 swings · league 17%8%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 28%23%Whiff 30% of 10 swings · league 24%30%Whiff 24% of 17 swings · league 32%24%Whiff 28% of 39 swings · league 49%28%
vs RHP · 604 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 46% of 24 pitches · league 62%46%Swings at 48% of 27 pitches · league 72%48%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 66%56%Swings at 54% of 37 pitches · league 70%54%Swings at 72% of 39 pitches · league 76%72%Swings at 60% of 35 pitches · league 70%60%Swings at 50% of 28 pitches · league 65%50%Swings at 59% of 32 pitches · league 68%59%Swings at 73% of 33 pitches · league 60%73%Swings at 13% of 97 pitches · league 24%13%Swings at 23% of 43 pitches · league 34%23%Swings at 20% of 84 pitches · league 40%20%Swings at 36% of 107 pitches · league 32%36%
vs RHP · 604 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Luis Lara against each of Michael McGreevy's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball23%92.3+9″ / +12″.364.36912.2%14.5%46About league average vs these
Changeup19%87.2+14″ / +1″.277.28223.1%28.2%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker16%91.2+12″ / +4″.339.34412.9%15.3%24About league average vs these
Curveball14%79.2-12″ / -11″.303.30823.4%29.4%7Little history vs this shape
Cutter12%88.5+0″ / +6″.360.36517.3%20.3%26About league average vs these
Sweeper11%82.3-15″ / -2″.309.31418.5%23.9%6Little history vs this shape
Slider5%83.5-3″ / -1″.330.33522.2%28.5%16About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Luis Lara · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G311.200.273.200.227.32318.2%9.1%5.3%90.8100.80.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1334.172.265.172.215.23629.4%8.8%10.7%85.8106.60.0%40.0%25.0%
Last 30 G2564.246.312.298.280.29726.6%7.8%13.5%88.4106.64.9%53.7%41.5%
90 days47139.254.331.336.304.30923.7%10.1%16.3%88.0106.65.6%43.3%43.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 90 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 32%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.125.125.125.112.18625.0%0.0%14.3%82.499.10.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1228.185.214.222.198.24221.4%3.6%16.7%81.7104.90.0%28.6%19.0%
Last 30 G2455.264.291.340.296.25118.2%3.6%12.0%86.1107.70.0%32.6%27.9%
90 days3570.227.271.303.271.26717.1%5.7%12.8%87.9107.70.0%38.9%27.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 54 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 24%Fly ball 9%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.167.211.167.179.26521.1%5.3%9.1%87.2100.80.0%35.7%35.7%
Last 15 G1562.179.242.196.207.23825.8%6.5%13.5%83.7106.60.0%34.1%22.0%
Last 30 G30119.255.303.318.287.27522.7%5.9%12.8%87.2107.72.4%42.9%34.5%
90 days56209.245.311.324.293.29521.5%8.6%15.1%88.0107.73.5%41.7%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 144 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 29%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 4%
Luis Lara · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating32Below average
Last 100 pitches16trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.293 / .299results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter89.096.0-16.149Force out
Sep 25RHPChangeup87.4100.0-2.321Force out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.888.430.064Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.195.816.698Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup88.676.6-45.114Out
Sep 24LHPSinker95.981.322.620Out
Sep 24LHPSinker93.799.1-21.142Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.7100.817.557Out
Sep 22RHPFastball100.074.220.878Single
Sep 22RHPSinker97.594.7-28.071Out
Sep 19LHPSweeper78.377.959.026Out
Sep 18LHPFastball90.687.560.015Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400011
Sep 24511000
Sep 22411001
Sep 19300002
Sep 18311000
Sep 17500011
Sep 16411001
Sep 15412000
Sep 13300001
Sep 11522001

Two strikes

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPwith two strikes
Michael McGreevy with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%23%24.4%17.5%18.6%
Fastball23%20%14.6%13.9%18.0%
Curveball14%18%22.9%12.9%20.0%
Sinker16%17%13.2%22.0%17.0%
Sweeper11%12%21.7%13.6%19.3%
Slider5%6%20.0%10.0%21.1%
Cutter12%5%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Luis Lara bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Luis Lara with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.9%41.0%
Whiff%18.8%21.3%
Contact%81.2%78.7%
Chase%31.8%39.6%
wOBA.236.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.2%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.304
K%21.7%
BB%8.2%
Whiff%7.0%
Barrel%3.4%
Hard-hit%27.7%
Avg EV87.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

135 PA
wOBA.307
xwOBA vs this mix.308against pitches like his
RV/100-0.42
Hard-hit%27.4%
K%23.4%
BB%8.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael McGreevyRHP · STL vs MIL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.9 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.9%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.6%16%56 strikeouts: 10.5%11%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.1%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%8.7%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff84
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball23%6992.34.7%
Changeup19%9287.311.6%
Sinker16%7791.25.8%
Curveball14%9279.210.1%
Cutter12%9488.59.5%
Sweeper11%9282.213.1%
Slider5%8583.511.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19885%9%21%.379
Sep 139026%13%22%.254
Sep 710515%10%26%.291

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Luis Lara: every projection we've made →