MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIL · batting 8Sal Frelick
Bats leftTalent grade CContactCold
.254wOBA vs RHP.253xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · STLMichael McGreevy
Throws rightBTB Stuff 84Trending Up
4.0projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Michael McGreevy's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 23% usage, 92.3 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +12.0″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .354 vs league .369 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 23%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.2 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .267 vs league .282 (about even).Changeup 19%Sinker: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.1″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .330 vs league .344 (about even).Sinker 16%Curveball: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -11.8″ arm side, -11.4″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .294 vs league .308 (about even).Curveball 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 88.5 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +6.1″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .350 vs league .365 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 82.3 mph, -14.8″ arm side, -1.9″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .299 vs league .314 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 11%Slider: 5% usage, 83.5 mph, -3.2″ arm side, -1.4″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .321 vs league .335 (about even).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Sal Frelick's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Sal Frelick's last 40 balls in playHit (7)Out (33)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 68.6 mph at 6°Out: 79.1 mph at -33°Double: 84.0 mph at 5°Out: 61.2 mph at 68°Out: 90.6 mph at -23°Out: 68.4 mph at 10°Out: 88.5 mph at 5°Out: 96.5 mph at -9°Out: 67.0 mph at -27°Out: 70.5 mph at -38°Single: 90.0 mph at -3°Single: 89.5 mph at -2°Out: 53.0 mph at 58°Out: 81.5 mph at 44°Single: 87.6 mph at 2°Out: 78.3 mph at 48°Out: 89.6 mph at 19°Out: 94.8 mph at 20°Out: 29.5 mph at -15°Out: 76.6 mph at -27°Out: 93.6 mph at 38°Out: 87.8 mph at -29°Out: 80.6 mph at -6°Out: 85.6 mph at 63°Out: 94.0 mph at -4°Single: 98.4 mph at 6°Out: 99.3 mph at 20°Single: 63.3 mph at 42°Out: 76.0 mph at 75°Out: 83.0 mph at 55°Out: 102.9 mph at -19°Out: 72.5 mph at -14°Out: 97.1 mph at 27°Out: 101.0 mph at 27°Out: 84.6 mph at -19°Out: 77.8 mph at -22°Double: 104.1 mph at 14°Out: 86.1 mph at 44°Out: 101.1 mph at 21°Out: 57.1 mph at 37°
20% hit 95+ mph20% in the sweet spot18% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.8%59.6%+1.1
2+ total bases30.5%29.8%+0.7
Home run5.4%5.1%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Sal Frelick hits
Sal Frelick · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .350 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 12 pitches seen.296xwOBA .231 shrunk (raw .102 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 19 pitches seen.231xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .190 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 12 pitches seen.239xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .142 on 6 PA) · league .342 · 15 pitches seen.275xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .207 on 6 PA) · league .386 · 22 pitches seen.326xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .469 on 3 PA) · league .321 · 12 pitches seen.351xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .173 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 11 pitches seen.274xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .274 on 8 PA) · league .351 · 18 pitches seen.320xwOBA .266 shrunk (raw .232 on 9 PA) · league .292 · 26 pitches seen.266xwOBA .414 shrunk (raw .638 on 2 PA) · league .377 · 40 pitches seen.414xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 17 pitches seen.235xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .230 on 13 PA) · league .263 · 48 pitches seen.246xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .270 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 58 pitches seen.272
vs RHP · 310 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 20%8%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 19%10%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 10%11%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 15 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 28%20%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 32%11%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 49%6%
vs RHP · 310 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 72%68%Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 66%83%Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 70%60%Swings at 59% of 22 pitches · league 76%59%Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 70%58%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 65%55%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 68%56%Swings at 58% of 26 pitches · league 60%58%Swings at 13% of 40 pitches · league 24%13%Swings at 29% of 17 pitches · league 34%29%Swings at 38% of 48 pitches · league 40%38%Swings at 31% of 58 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 310 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Sal Frelick against each of Michael McGreevy's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball23%92.3+9″ / +12″.354.3696.4%14.5%26About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup19%87.2+14″ / +1″.267.28216.7%28.2%9About league average vs these
Sinker16%91.2+12″ / +4″.330.3446.8%15.3%22About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball14%79.2-12″ / -11″.294.30817.4%29.4%4Little history vs this shape
Cutter12%88.5+0″ / +6″.350.3659.5%20.3%18About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper11%82.3-15″ / -2″.299.31413.6%23.9%6Little history vs this shape
Slider5%83.5-3″ / -1″.321.33516.8%28.5%11About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Sal Frelick · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.125.364.250.305.3010.0%27.3%0.0%76.996.50.0%12.5%12.5%
Last 15 G1235.129.200.194.183.2345.7%8.6%1.7%84.0104.13.3%23.3%16.7%
Last 30 G2571.167.211.273.214.19715.5%5.6%7.3%83.9104.11.8%26.8%19.6%
90 days3083.195.241.299.239.23613.3%6.0%7.3%84.5104.11.5%29.9%25.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 67 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 12%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G33.333.333.333.300.2660.0%0.0%0.0%83.090.00.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1012.364.364.364.409.4130.0%0.0%0.0%79.6101.10.0%16.7%33.3%
Last 30 G1626.261.320.304.322.3437.7%7.7%6.8%78.2102.00.0%18.2%27.3%
90 days1932.296.387.370.374.3886.2%9.4%6.2%79.3102.00.0%15.4%34.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 26 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 27%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.182.357.273.304.2930.0%21.4%0.0%78.696.50.0%9.1%9.1%
Last 15 G1547.190.239.238.237.2774.3%6.4%1.3%82.7104.12.4%21.4%21.4%
Last 30 G3097.191.240.281.242.23513.4%6.2%7.1%82.3104.11.3%24.4%21.8%
90 days35115.221.281.317.276.27711.3%7.0%7.0%83.1104.11.1%25.8%28.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 93 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 16%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 10%
Sal Frelick · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating20Poor
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.274 / .284results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup87.768.66.194Force out
Sep 25RHPChangeup87.479.1-33.059Force out
Sep 24RHPChangeup89.584.05.370Double
Sep 24RHPCutter92.161.268.000Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball78.590.6-23.071Out
Sep 23RHPSinker90.668.410.220Out
Sep 23LHPSlider88.088.55.403Double play
Sep 20RHPFastball95.396.5-9.254Out
Sep 20RHPSplitter83.367.0-27.048Force out
Sep 20LHPSinker95.570.5-38.111Out
Sep 18LHPFastball97.790.0-3.283Single
Sep 17RHPFastball96.689.5-2.297Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200000
Sep 24412020
Sep 23300000
Sep 20300000
Sep 18211010
Sep 17422000
Sep 16200000
Sep 13200000
Sep 12500000
Sep 9411001

Two strikes

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPwith two strikes
Michael McGreevy with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%23%24.4%17.5%18.6%
Fastball23%20%14.6%13.9%18.0%
Curveball14%18%22.9%12.9%20.0%
Sinker16%17%13.2%22.0%17.0%
Sweeper11%12%21.7%13.6%19.3%
Slider5%6%20.0%10.0%21.1%
Cutter12%5%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Sal Frelick bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Sal Frelick with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.7%41.0%
Whiff%17.8%21.3%
Contact%82.2%78.7%
Chase%39.3%39.6%
wOBA.227.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.2%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCContact type
wOBA.319
K%13.8%
BB%7.5%
Whiff%6.7%
Barrel%1.9%
Hard-hit%22.0%
Avg EV84.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

82 PA
wOBA.254
xwOBA vs this mix.253against pitches like his
RV/100-1.97
Hard-hit%25.2%
K%14.1%
BB%7.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael McGreevyRHP · STL vs MIL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.9 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.9%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.6%16%56 strikeouts: 10.5%11%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.1%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%8.7%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff84
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball23%6992.34.7%
Changeup19%9287.311.6%
Sinker16%7791.25.8%
Curveball14%9279.210.1%
Cutter12%9488.59.5%
Sweeper11%9282.213.1%
Slider5%8583.511.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19885%9%21%.379
Sep 139026%13%22%.254
Sep 710515%10%26%.291

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Sal Frelick: every projection we've made →