MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PHI · batting 6Brandon Marsh
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedCold
.264wOBA vs RHP.282xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · TBFreddy Peralta
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.7projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Freddy Peralta's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 53% usage, 94.5 mph, +6.8″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Brandon Marsh: wOBA .323 vs league .349 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 53%Changeup: 24% usage, 87.3 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Brandon Marsh: wOBA .276 vs league .302 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 24%Curveball: 13% usage, 79.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Brandon Marsh: wOBA .317 vs league .344 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 13%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Brandon Marsh: wOBA .305 vs league .331 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brandon Marsh's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brandon Marsh's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 90.6 mph at 47°Out: 63.0 mph at -62°Double: 100.1 mph at 22°Out: 97.1 mph at -7°Home run: 104.4 mph at 32°Single: 105.8 mph at 13°Out: 102.2 mph at -9°Out: 93.5 mph at 55°Out: 94.9 mph at 25°Single: 72.6 mph at 45°Out: 32.9 mph at -23°Out: 77.3 mph at -38°Out: 91.7 mph at 29°Out: 95.3 mph at 51°Out: 87.4 mph at -15°Out: 62.9 mph at -18°Out: 59.9 mph at -16°Out: 94.0 mph at 8°Out: 88.0 mph at -7°Out: 98.1 mph at 32°Out: 77.4 mph at -32°Out: 71.7 mph at -14°Single: 104.8 mph at 10°Out: 105.6 mph at -21°Double: 103.8 mph at 21°Single: 90.5 mph at 18°Out: 99.5 mph at 49°Out: 84.7 mph at 40°Out: 104.4 mph at 2°Out: 78.2 mph at 4°Out: 90.9 mph at 79°Out: 84.4 mph at 9°Out: 85.9 mph at 40°Out: 94.9 mph at 23°Out: 68.3 mph at -5°Out: 66.2 mph at -13°Out: 88.9 mph at 47°Out: 95.7 mph at 24°Single: 92.5 mph at 2°Single: 97.1 mph at 16°
35% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.6%56.3%-0.7
2+ total bases32.0%32.2%-0.2
Home run10.7%9.8%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-1.0
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+1.1
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brandon Marsh hits
Brandon Marsh · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .194 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 33 pitches seen.240xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .203 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 42 pitches seen.262xwOBA .200 shrunk (raw .117 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 38 pitches seen.200xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .396 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 36 pitches seen.370xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .330 on 28 PA) · league .386 · 55 pitches seen.347xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .179 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 32 pitches seen.242xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .193 on 15 PA) · league .308 · 46 pitches seen.244xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .418 on 23 PA) · league .351 · 57 pitches seen.395xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .466 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 35 pitches seen.371xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .324 on 20 PA) · league .377 · 149 pitches seen.344xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .201 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 61 pitches seen.245xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .237 on 20 PA) · league .263 · 89 pitches seen.247xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .219 on 29 PA) · league .274 · 151 pitches seen.235
vs RHP · 824 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 29% of 17 swings · league 22%29%Whiff 4% of 25 swings · league 20%4%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 19%5%Whiff 8% of 25 swings · league 10%8%Whiff 4% of 49 swings · league 9%4%Whiff 3% of 30 swings · league 11%3%Whiff 14% of 28 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 7% of 42 swings · league 13%7%Whiff 8% of 24 swings · league 17%8%Whiff 45% of 20 swings · league 28%45%Whiff 27% of 26 swings · league 24%27%Whiff 37% of 43 swings · league 32%37%Whiff 46% of 59 swings · league 49%46%
vs RHP · 824 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 52% of 33 pitches · league 62%52%Swings at 60% of 42 pitches · league 72%60%Swings at 58% of 38 pitches · league 66%58%Swings at 69% of 36 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 89% of 55 pitches · league 76%89%Swings at 94% of 32 pitches · league 70%94%Swings at 61% of 46 pitches · league 65%61%Swings at 74% of 57 pitches · league 68%74%Swings at 69% of 35 pitches · league 60%69%Swings at 13% of 149 pitches · league 24%13%Swings at 43% of 61 pitches · league 34%43%Swings at 48% of 89 pitches · league 40%48%Swings at 39% of 151 pitches · league 32%39%
vs RHP · 824 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Brandon Marsh against each of Freddy Peralta's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball53%94.5+7″ / +17″.323.34913.3%17.1%58About league average vs these
Changeup24%87.3+17″ / +4″.276.30225.8%26.2%24About league average vs these
Curveball13%79.2-4″ / -4″.317.34426.7%27.0%20About league average vs these
Sweeper8%82.4-10″ / +6″.305.33125.6%25.9%16About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brandon Marsh · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.222.300.556.360.33050.0%10.0%34.8%91.0105.825.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1533.161.188.290.214.24630.3%3.0%27.3%86.4105.89.1%36.4%36.4%
Last 30 G3069.172.221.250.216.24026.1%5.8%22.4%87.4105.86.4%29.8%38.3%
90 days72213.196.259.299.256.28721.1%8.0%19.5%88.8105.86.6%40.4%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 151 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G13.333.333.667.417.26733.3%0.0%33.3%98.6100.10.0%100.0%50.0%
Last 15 G25.200.200.400.250.18340.0%0.0%18.2%91.5100.10.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 30 G710.200.200.300.215.15130.0%0.0%23.8%81.5100.10.0%28.6%14.3%
90 days2542.154.195.256.206.21542.9%4.8%35.4%79.3104.513.6%27.3%31.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 22 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 23%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.250.308.583.373.31646.2%7.7%34.6%93.5105.816.7%66.7%50.0%
Last 15 G1538.167.189.306.219.23731.6%2.6%26.0%87.0105.88.0%40.0%36.0%
Last 30 G3079.176.218.257.216.22826.6%5.1%22.6%86.6105.85.6%29.6%35.2%
90 days73255.189.249.292.248.27524.7%7.5%22.1%87.6105.87.5%38.7%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 173 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 23%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 6%
Brandon Marsh · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating22Poor
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.246 / .286running 40 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCurveball82.390.647.009Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.163.0-62.260Out
Sep 22LHPSinker90.2100.122.555Double
Sep 22LHPSinker92.297.1-7.247Out
Sep 22RHPSinker96.2104.4321.451Home run
Sep 20RHPFastball95.9105.813.883Single
Sep 19RHPFastball95.5102.2-9.299Out
Sep 18RHPFastball95.693.555.015Out
Sep 17RHPCutter90.494.925.274Out
Sep 17RHPFastball96.372.645.197Single
Sep 17RHPCutter81.732.9-23–Sac bunt
Sep 16LHPCutter85.577.3-38.111Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200001
Sep 24100000
Sep 23200011
Sep 22426101
Sep 20411003
Sep 19200001
Sep 18100000
Sep 17411001
Sep 16400001
Sep 13200000

Two strikes

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPwith two strikes
Freddy Peralta with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball53%48%13.9%15.0%18.0%
Changeup24%27%25.9%16.0%18.6%
Curveball13%13%23.5%19.6%20.0%
Sweeper8%10%29.2%17.9%19.3%
Offspeed1%2%40.0%28.6%13.1%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Brandon Marsh bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brandon Marsh with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.4%41.0%
Whiff%22.6%21.3%
Contact%77.4%78.7%
Chase%40.0%39.6%
wOBA.241.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.7%19.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.287
K%24.9%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%5.0%
Hard-hit%26.8%
Avg EV87.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

214 PA
wOBA.264
xwOBA vs this mix.282against pitches like his
RV/100-1.40
Hard-hit%28.4%
K%21.6%
BB%7.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB vs PHI
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.4 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 31.6%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.4%13%67 strikeouts: 9.0%9%78 strikeouts: 5.2%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.0%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.8%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%11.4%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball53%12694.79.7%
Changeup24%8887.312.5%
Curveball13%6979.113.4%
Sweeper8%10182.514.2%
Slider1%7882.911.1%
Offspeed1%–73.928.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199726%12%9%.290
Sep 138622%9%6%.117
Sep 8928%4%50%.217

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brandon Marsh: every projection we've made →