MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PHI · batting 5Bryson Stott
Bats leftTalent grade BContactNormal
.339wOBA vs RHP.349xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · TBFreddy Peralta
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.7projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Freddy Peralta's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 53% usage, 94.5 mph, +6.8″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Bryson Stott: wOBA .354 vs league .349 (about even).Fastball 53%Changeup: 24% usage, 87.3 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Bryson Stott: wOBA .307 vs league .302 (about even).Changeup 24%Curveball: 13% usage, 79.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Bryson Stott: wOBA .348 vs league .344 (about even).Curveball 13%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Bryson Stott: wOBA .336 vs league .331 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Bryson Stott's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Bryson Stott's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 99.7 mph at -10°Out: 94.8 mph at 40°Out: 84.1 mph at 11°Out: 86.4 mph at -21°Out: 107.2 mph at 6°Double: 107.4 mph at 15°Double: 93.9 mph at 24°Out: 73.4 mph at -29°Single: 88.7 mph at 18°Out: 101.5 mph at -26°Out: 102.3 mph at -21°Out: 96.6 mph at 45°Out: 71.4 mph at 2°Out: 98.0 mph at 25°Out: 87.4 mph at 59°Single: 85.3 mph at 19°Out: 80.1 mph at -5°Out: 81.5 mph at 55°Out: 79.2 mph at 9°Double: 100.9 mph at 23°Out: 104.6 mph at 21°Out: 33.8 mph at 14°Out: 87.1 mph at 7°Double: 77.2 mph at 41°Single: 98.1 mph at -6°Out: 92.3 mph at -19°Out: 88.4 mph at 28°Out: 80.7 mph at 0°Out: 96.7 mph at 6°Out: 91.6 mph at 40°Out: 96.2 mph at 33°Out: 86.2 mph at -1°Single: 82.7 mph at 21°Double: 100.6 mph at 21°Single: 93.4 mph at 18°Out: 85.0 mph at 59°Out: 89.4 mph at -17°Out: 63.9 mph at -40°Out: 94.4 mph at 0°Out: 81.6 mph at 33°
33% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.9%60.6%+1.3
2+ total bases34.9%33.2%+1.7
Home run8.6%7.1%+1.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+1.1
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
+1.1
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+1.0
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Bryson Stott hits
Bryson Stott · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .371 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 51 pitches seen.320xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .173 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 40 pitches seen.246xwOBA .338 shrunk (raw .438 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 22 pitches seen.338xwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .325 on 7 PA) · league .342 · 57 pitches seen.336xwOBA .403 shrunk (raw .413 on 21 PA) · league .386 · 63 pitches seen.403xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .292 on 14 PA) · league .321 · 43 pitches seen.305xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .403 on 12 PA) · league .308 · 46 pitches seen.355xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .355 on 18 PA) · league .351 · 56 pitches seen.353xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .406 on 12 PA) · league .292 · 45 pitches seen.349xwOBA .388 shrunk (raw .392 on 29 PA) · league .377 · 188 pitches seen.388xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .374 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 37 pitches seen.311xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .341 on 38 PA) · league .263 · 161 pitches seen.322xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .338 on 35 PA) · league .274 · 162 pitches seen.322
vs RHP · 971 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 22%17%Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 20%5%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 19%11%Whiff 16% of 31 swings · league 10%16%Whiff 12% of 41 swings · league 9%12%Whiff 7% of 28 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 0% of 22 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 6% of 34 swings · league 13%6%Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 17%5%Whiff 52% of 27 swings · league 28%52%Whiff 10% of 21 swings · league 24%10%Whiff 23% of 40 swings · league 32%23%Whiff 32% of 65 swings · league 49%32%
vs RHP · 971 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 47% of 51 pitches · league 62%47%Swings at 53% of 40 pitches · league 72%53%Swings at 82% of 22 pitches · league 66%82%Swings at 54% of 57 pitches · league 70%54%Swings at 65% of 63 pitches · league 76%65%Swings at 65% of 43 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 48% of 46 pitches · league 65%48%Swings at 61% of 56 pitches · league 68%61%Swings at 47% of 45 pitches · league 60%47%Swings at 14% of 188 pitches · league 24%14%Swings at 57% of 37 pitches · league 34%57%Swings at 25% of 161 pitches · league 40%25%Swings at 40% of 162 pitches · league 32%40%
vs RHP · 971 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Bryson Stott against each of Freddy Peralta's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball53%94.5+7″ / +17″.354.34916.3%17.1%67About league average vs these
Changeup24%87.3+17″ / +4″.307.30220.4%26.2%37About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball13%79.2-4″ / -4″.348.34420.0%27.0%18About league average vs these
Sweeper8%82.4-10″ / +6″.336.33118.9%25.9%14About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Bryson Stott · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.300.500.500.443.3880.0%28.6%4.3%93.0107.40.0%50.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1539.226.368.323.328.33310.3%17.9%13.8%86.9107.43.6%25.0%25.0%
Last 30 G2977.212.316.318.293.34915.6%11.7%16.9%88.2109.95.5%27.3%36.4%
90 days75225.268.372.379.346.35715.6%13.8%17.3%89.8110.53.8%36.7%36.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 27%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.167.286.167.229.32014.3%14.3%23.1%92.6102.30.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1020.222.300.333.330.30720.0%10.0%12.1%91.7102.30.0%42.9%50.0%
Last 30 G1938.171.211.257.230.25321.1%5.3%11.1%89.4105.80.0%39.3%35.7%
90 days4281.250.321.403.332.29718.5%9.9%15.3%86.2105.91.8%31.6%40.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 25%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.250.429.375.371.3664.8%23.8%11.1%92.9107.40.0%46.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1559.224.345.327.328.32413.6%15.3%13.3%88.5107.42.4%31.0%33.3%
Last 30 G30115.198.281.297.272.31717.4%9.6%15.1%88.6109.93.6%31.3%36.1%
90 days76306.263.359.385.342.34116.3%12.7%16.8%88.8110.53.3%35.3%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 215 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 26%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 8%
Bryson Stott · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating74Above average
Last 100 pitches83trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.334 / .341results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball95.499.7-10.262Single
Sep 25RHPFastball96.294.840.053Out
Sep 25LHPSweeper84.084.111.435Out
Sep 24LHPSinker96.886.4-21.093Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.8107.26.586Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.2107.415.688Double
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.093.924.217Double
Sep 23RHPSinker99.273.4-29.055Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper83.688.718.702Single
Sep 22LHPSinker93.4101.5-26.138Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper82.4102.3-21.172Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.396.645.021Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411010
Sep 24400011
Sep 23424010
Sep 22411010
Sep 20500010
Sep 19411002
Sep 18412000
Sep 17423000
Sep 16500020
Sep 15400001

Two strikes

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPwith two strikes
Freddy Peralta with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball53%48%13.9%15.0%18.0%
Changeup24%27%25.9%16.0%18.6%
Curveball13%13%23.5%19.6%20.0%
Sweeper8%10%29.2%17.9%19.3%
Offspeed1%2%40.0%28.6%13.1%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Bryson Stott bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Bryson Stott with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%31.4%41.0%
Whiff%17.5%21.3%
Contact%82.5%78.7%
Chase%44.8%39.6%
wOBA.264.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.9%19.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.333
K%16.7%
BB%12.2%
Whiff%7.4%
Barrel%2.6%
Hard-hit%24.3%
Avg EV88.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

225 PA
wOBA.339
xwOBA vs this mix.349against pitches like his
RV/1000.35
Hard-hit%25.3%
K%16.4%
BB%12.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB vs PHI
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.4 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 31.6%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.4%13%67 strikeouts: 9.0%9%78 strikeouts: 5.2%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.0%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.8%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%11.4%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball53%12694.79.7%
Changeup24%8887.312.5%
Curveball13%6979.113.4%
Sweeper8%10182.514.2%
Slider1%7882.911.1%
Offspeed1%–73.928.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199726%12%9%.290
Sep 138622%9%6%.117
Sep 8928%4%50%.217

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Bryson Stott: every projection we've made →