MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PHI · batting 10Edmundo Sosa
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.259wOBA vs RHP.292xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · TBFreddy Peralta
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.7projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Freddy Peralta's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 53% usage, 94.5 mph, +6.8″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Edmundo Sosa: wOBA .334 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 53%Changeup: 24% usage, 87.3 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Edmundo Sosa: wOBA .319 vs league .331 (about even).Changeup 24%Curveball: 13% usage, 79.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Edmundo Sosa: wOBA .311 vs league .323 (about even).Curveball 13%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Edmundo Sosa: wOBA .272 vs league .284 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Edmundo Sosa's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Edmundo Sosa's last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.1 mph at -4°Out: 72.2 mph at -43°Out: 93.9 mph at 19°Home run: 97.1 mph at 32°Double: 107.2 mph at 19°Single: 105.5 mph at 6°Out: 92.2 mph at 26°Out: 92.1 mph at 66°Out: 91.3 mph at 7°Single: 95.6 mph at 20°Single: 58.2 mph at 15°Double: 100.0 mph at 35°Out: 94.4 mph at 53°Out: 60.1 mph at -2°Out: 82.2 mph at 69°Out: 88.4 mph at -16°Single: 108.2 mph at 4°Out: 86.9 mph at 49°Single: 84.2 mph at 12°Out: 70.3 mph at -1°Home run: 104.6 mph at 37°Out: 101.0 mph at 15°Home run: 108.5 mph at 23°Double: 91.4 mph at -13°Out: 91.1 mph at -11°Single: 75.0 mph at 18°Out: 80.1 mph at -5°Single: 72.1 mph at 28°Out: 84.0 mph at 29°Double: 104.1 mph at 17°Triple: 101.0 mph at -3°Out: 94.6 mph at -23°Single: 80.2 mph at 8°Out: 74.8 mph at 4°Out: 86.1 mph at 28°Out: 51.2 mph at -61°Single: 110.1 mph at 12°Double: 107.6 mph at 20°Out: 94.4 mph at 34°Single: 82.4 mph at 24°
33% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.5%62.8%-0.3
2+ total bases35.2%35.3%-0.1
Home run10.5%10.1%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Edmundo Sosa hits
Edmundo Sosa · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .307 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .307 · 7 pitches seenxwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .145 on 3 PA) · league .342 · 7 pitches seen.303xwOBA .345 shrunk (raw .180 on 3 PA) · league .386 · 7 pitches seen.345xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .321 · 6 pitches seenxwOBA .333 shrunk (raw .392 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 7 pitches seen.333xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .268 on 3 PA) · league .351 · 10 pitches seen.334xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .292 · 12 pitches seen.270xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .211 on 6 PA) · league .377 · 18 pitches seen.322xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .125 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 12 pitches seen.235xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .264 on 17 PA) · league .274 · 44 pitches seen.268
vs RHP · 141 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 10%14%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 9%17%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 11%33%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 14%20%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 13%17%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 28%33%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 67% of 9 swings · league 32%67%Whiff 40% of 30 swings · league 49%40%
vs RHP · 141 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 62%75%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 72%57%Swings at 33% of 3 pitches · league 66%33%Swings at 100% of 7 pitches · league 70%100%Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 76%86%Swings at 50% of 6 pitches · league 70%50%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 65%71%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 68%60%Swings at 50% of 12 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 50% of 18 pitches · league 24%50%Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 34%50%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 40%75%Swings at 68% of 44 pitches · league 32%68%
vs RHP · 141 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Edmundo Sosa against each of Freddy Peralta's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball53%94.5+7″ / +17″.334.34620.7%19.8%9About league average vs these
Changeup24%87.3+17″ / +4″.319.33127.6%22.5%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball13%79.2-4″ / -4″.311.32328.3%27.7%8Little history vs this shape
Sweeper8%82.4-10″ / +6″.272.28431.2%30.6%8About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Edmundo Sosa · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.000.000.000.000.15440.0%0.0%38.5%86.794.10.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 15 G68.000.000.000.000.09662.5%0.0%52.9%86.794.10.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 30 G1734.182.206.303.221.24929.4%0.0%35.1%88.2110.14.3%30.4%34.8%
90 days2142.158.175.263.205.24126.2%0.0%30.8%87.2110.13.4%31.0%27.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 29 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 17%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.600.6001.400.830.42020.0%0.0%28.6%100.5107.225.0%75.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1225.417.440.875.548.39016.0%0.0%18.2%91.4108.515.0%45.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2350.362.400.617.453.33920.0%4.0%27.1%87.9108.58.1%40.5%37.8%
90 days2759.352.407.574.438.36316.9%6.8%25.4%89.1109.89.1%43.2%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 27%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.300.300.700.415.28730.0%0.0%35.0%94.6107.214.3%42.9%57.1%
Last 15 G1533.312.333.656.415.31927.3%0.0%27.9%90.8108.513.0%39.1%39.1%
Last 30 G3084.288.321.488.359.30323.8%2.4%30.4%88.0110.16.7%36.7%36.7%
90 days34101.272.313.446.342.31320.8%4.0%27.6%88.3110.16.8%38.4%32.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 73 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 23%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 6%
Edmundo Sosa · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating70Above average
Last 100 pitches81trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.338 / .335results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper87.194.1-4.250Out
Sep 24RHPSinker96.772.2-43.153Out
Sep 19RHPFastball96.593.919.369Out
Sep 18LHPChangeup84.897.132.513Home run
Sep 18LHPSinker92.4107.219.884Double
Sep 18LHPCutter89.8105.56.553Single
Sep 12LHPFastball86.692.226.152Out
Sep 11LHPChangeup88.592.166.016Out
Sep 11LHPFastball94.191.37.427Double play
Sep 11LHPSlider81.395.620.360Single
Sep 9LHPFastball93.358.215.181Single
Sep 8LHPSlider84.2100.035.688Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300002
Sep 24100000
Sep 19200001
Sep 18337100
Sep 12100000
Sep 11311000
Sep 10100001
Sep 9211001
Sep 8112000
Sep 6100001

Two strikes

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPwith two strikes
Freddy Peralta with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball53%48%13.9%15.0%18.0%
Changeup24%27%25.9%16.0%18.6%
Curveball13%13%23.5%19.6%20.0%
Sweeper8%10%29.2%17.9%19.3%
Offspeed1%2%40.0%28.6%13.1%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Edmundo Sosa bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Edmundo Sosa with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.5%42.4%
Whiff%22.1%22.2%
Contact%77.9%77.8%
Chase%46.4%39.9%
wOBA.225.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.4%21.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.339
K%20.6%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%12.7%
Barrel%4.6%
Hard-hit%27.8%
Avg EV87.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

43 PA
wOBA.259
xwOBA vs this mix.292against pitches like his
RV/100-1.61
Hard-hit%24.8%
K%21.7%
BB%5.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB vs PHI
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.4 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 31.6%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.4%13%67 strikeouts: 9.0%9%78 strikeouts: 5.2%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.0%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.8%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%11.4%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball53%12694.79.7%
Changeup24%8887.312.5%
Curveball13%6979.113.4%
Sweeper8%10182.514.2%
Slider1%7882.911.1%
Offspeed1%–73.928.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199726%12%9%.290
Sep 138622%9%6%.117
Sep 8928%4%50%.217

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Edmundo Sosa: every projection we've made →