MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PHI · batting 9J.T. Realmuto
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedCold
.278wOBA vs RHP.309xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · TBFreddy Peralta
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.7projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Freddy Peralta's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 53% usage, 94.5 mph, +6.8″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. J.T. Realmuto: wOBA .332 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 53%Changeup: 24% usage, 87.3 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. J.T. Realmuto: wOBA .317 vs league .331 (about even).Changeup 24%Curveball: 13% usage, 79.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. J.T. Realmuto: wOBA .309 vs league .323 (about even).Curveball 13%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. J.T. Realmuto: wOBA .270 vs league .284 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is J.T. Realmuto's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

J.T. Realmuto's last 40 balls in playHit (6)Out (34)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 90.5 mph at 18°Out: 92.7 mph at 25°Out: 86.9 mph at -12°Out: 97.1 mph at 29°Out: 83.6 mph at -4°Out: 83.9 mph at 55°Out: 71.3 mph at -1°Out: 106.0 mph at 5°Out: 101.5 mph at 45°Out: 79.6 mph at -6°Out: 94.3 mph at 24°Out: 98.6 mph at 21°Out: 93.7 mph at 32°Out: 63.6 mph at 58°Out: 89.9 mph at 30°Out: 81.7 mph at 64°Out: 82.7 mph at 40°Out: 48.5 mph at 12°Out: 88.0 mph at 13°Out: 100.1 mph at 11°Out: 92.0 mph at -15°Double: 98.8 mph at 29°Home run: 105.2 mph at 24°Out: 92.6 mph at -7°Single: 95.2 mph at 15°Single: 93.5 mph at 6°Single: 90.0 mph at -19°Out: 93.6 mph at -11°Out: 98.3 mph at 35°Out: 64.9 mph at -13°Single: 90.6 mph at -21°Out: 56.3 mph at -6°Out: 99.4 mph at 30°Out: 95.1 mph at 29°Out: 102.9 mph at 9°Out: 90.0 mph at 51°Out: 81.5 mph at 84°Out: 91.8 mph at -23°Out: 79.7 mph at 80°Out: 61.8 mph at -37°
30% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot15% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.5%54.2%-0.7
2+ total bases29.3%29.6%-0.3
Home run9.2%8.8%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+1.0
Home run
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where J.T. Realmuto hits
J.T. Realmuto · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .212 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 41 pitches seen.244xwOBA .484 shrunk (raw .719 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 37 pitches seen.484xwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .150 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 32 pitches seen.230xwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .417 on 11 PA) · league .342 · 33 pitches seen.378xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .212 on 20 PA) · league .386 · 52 pitches seen.277xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .344 on 20 PA) · league .321 · 50 pitches seen.335xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .388 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 25 pitches seen.335xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .419 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 41 pitches seen.389xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .229 on 9 PA) · league .292 · 34 pitches seen.265xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .326 on 12 PA) · league .377 · 79 pitches seen.351xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .343 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 62 pitches seen.313xwOBA .231 shrunk (raw .193 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 53 pitches seen.231xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .224 on 36 PA) · league .274 · 212 pitches seen.237
vs RHP · 751 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 4% of 25 swings · league 22%4%Whiff 18% of 28 swings · league 20%18%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 19%19%Whiff 0% of 26 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 12% of 34 swings · league 9%12%Whiff 25% of 36 swings · league 11%25%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 13% of 30 swings · league 13%13%Whiff 24% of 17 swings · league 17%24%Whiff 21% of 24 swings · league 28%21%Whiff 17% of 23 swings · league 24%17%Whiff 63% of 16 swings · league 32%63%Whiff 46% of 54 swings · league 49%46%
vs RHP · 751 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 61% of 41 pitches · league 62%61%Swings at 76% of 37 pitches · league 72%76%Swings at 66% of 32 pitches · league 66%66%Swings at 79% of 33 pitches · league 70%79%Swings at 65% of 52 pitches · league 76%65%Swings at 72% of 50 pitches · league 70%72%Swings at 60% of 25 pitches · league 65%60%Swings at 73% of 41 pitches · league 68%73%Swings at 50% of 34 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 30% of 79 pitches · league 24%30%Swings at 37% of 62 pitches · league 34%37%Swings at 30% of 53 pitches · league 40%30%Swings at 26% of 212 pitches · league 32%26%
vs RHP · 751 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

J.T. Realmuto against each of Freddy Peralta's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball53%94.5+7″ / +17″.332.34620.8%19.8%58About league average vs these
Changeup24%87.3+17″ / +4″.317.33121.3%22.5%19About league average vs these
Curveball13%79.2-4″ / -4″.309.32325.2%27.7%13About league average vs these
Sweeper8%82.4-10″ / +6″.270.28428.2%30.6%19About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
J.T. Realmuto · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.000.154.000.108.23030.8%15.4%20.0%86.697.10.0%14.3%42.9%
Last 15 G1538.171.237.286.236.27628.9%7.9%25.0%87.7105.212.5%33.3%54.2%
Last 30 G2876.203.276.348.278.31122.4%9.2%24.1%88.6106.79.6%40.4%44.2%
90 days60182.205.269.325.268.30724.2%7.1%22.1%88.8111.26.6%40.5%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 121 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 22%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.333.000.233.36116.7%33.3%25.0%95.7106.00.0%66.7%0.0%
Last 15 G1020.000.150.000.105.29225.0%10.0%18.9%90.7106.00.0%33.3%25.0%
Last 30 G1940.094.250.188.217.31922.5%15.0%18.3%89.2106.04.2%29.2%29.2%
90 days3265.212.323.346.304.33321.5%10.8%18.6%91.9109.42.5%42.5%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 40 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 20%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.000.211.000.147.27126.3%21.1%22.2%89.3106.00.0%30.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1558.115.207.192.191.28227.6%8.6%22.8%88.7106.08.3%33.3%44.4%
Last 30 G30116.168.267.297.257.31422.4%11.2%22.2%88.8106.77.9%36.8%39.5%
90 days64247.206.283.330.278.31423.5%8.1%21.2%89.6111.25.6%41.0%37.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 161 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 9%
J.T. Realmuto · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating55Average
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.281 / .320running 39 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball95.090.518.558Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup86.692.725.185Out
Sep 25RHPSinker91.886.9-12.168Out
Sep 24RHPCutter92.197.129.434Out
Sep 24RHPSinker96.283.6-4.135Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.883.955.025Out
Sep 23RHPCutter87.871.3-1.085Out
Sep 23LHPSinker95.8106.05.579Out
Sep 22LHPSinker90.2101.545.070Out
Sep 22LHPSinker94.579.6-6.122Out
Sep 19RHPCutter89.294.324.217Out
Sep 19RHPFastball96.298.621.409Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300000
Sep 24400011
Sep 23400001
Sep 22400011
Sep 20400022
Sep 19400002
Sep 18400000
Sep 16500012
Sep 15400001
Sep 13537101

Two strikes

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPwith two strikes
Freddy Peralta with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball53%48%13.9%15.0%18.0%
Changeup24%27%25.9%16.0%18.6%
Curveball13%13%23.5%19.6%20.0%
Sweeper8%10%29.2%17.9%19.3%
Offspeed1%2%40.0%28.6%13.1%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.1%
J.T. Realmuto bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
J.T. Realmuto with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.1%42.4%
Whiff%21.7%22.2%
Contact%78.3%77.8%
Chase%36.7%39.9%
wOBA.228.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.0%21.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.294
K%23.7%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%9.9%
Barrel%4.2%
Hard-hit%27.4%
Avg EV89.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

179 PA
wOBA.278
xwOBA vs this mix.309against pitches like his
RV/100-0.81
Hard-hit%27.2%
K%24.3%
BB%8.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB vs PHI
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.4 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 31.6%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.4%13%67 strikeouts: 9.0%9%78 strikeouts: 5.2%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.0%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.8%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%11.4%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball53%12694.79.7%
Changeup24%8887.312.5%
Curveball13%6979.113.4%
Sweeper8%10182.514.2%
Slider1%7882.911.1%
Offspeed1%–73.928.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199726%12%9%.290
Sep 138622%9%6%.117
Sep 8928%4%50%.217

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.J.T. Realmuto: every projection we've made →