MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TB · batting 2Jonathan Aranda
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.294wOBA vs LHP.305xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · PHICristopher Sánchez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 118Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Cristopher Sánchez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 46% usage, 95.0 mph, +18.1″ arm side, +4.6″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .310 vs league .314 (about even).Sinker 46%Changeup: 35% usage, 87.2 mph, +17.0″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .319 vs league .322 (about even).Changeup 35%Slider: 19% usage, 86.6 mph, -0.7″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .314 vs league .318 (about even).Slider 19%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jonathan Aranda's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jonathan Aranda's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 88.3 mph at 18°Out: 98.4 mph at -25°Out: 51.0 mph at 2°Single: 98.9 mph at 16°Out: 102.5 mph at 29°Out: 64.4 mph at 0°Home run: 98.7 mph at 31°Out: 54.9 mph at -59°Out: 94.3 mph at 48°Out: 57.5 mph at -13°Double: 98.1 mph at 25°Out: 93.9 mph at -6°Double: 97.1 mph at 21°Out: 102.9 mph at 19°Out: 75.5 mph at 13°Single: 83.7 mph at 21°Home run: 103.0 mph at 32°Home run: 99.8 mph at 37°Single: 102.6 mph at 15°Out: 84.4 mph at 51°Out: 99.6 mph at -1°Out: 84.0 mph at 68°Out: 96.7 mph at -9°Double: 95.7 mph at 35°Out: 92.2 mph at -6°Out: 90.6 mph at -16°Out: 88.4 mph at -12°Single: 70.9 mph at 7°Out: 94.7 mph at 3°Out: 72.1 mph at -40°Double: 98.3 mph at 13°Out: 91.2 mph at 47°Single: 91.9 mph at 16°Out: 77.8 mph at 75°Out: 89.1 mph at 51°Out: 103.7 mph at -1°Home run: 100.7 mph at 30°Single: 94.9 mph at 17°Double: 88.9 mph at 24°Home run: 103.6 mph at 33°
43% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.9%66.0%-1.1
2+ total bases37.4%39.5%-2.1
Home run11.2%14.5%-3.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.1
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.9
Home run
Starter
-4.2
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jonathan Aranda hits
Jonathan Aranda · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .194 shrunk (raw .000 on 3 PA) · league .243 · 20 pitches seen.194xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .658 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 21 pitches seen.368xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 20 pitches seen.234xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .061 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 24 pitches seen.235xwOBA .377 shrunk (raw .364 on 8 PA) · league .385 · 21 pitches seen.377xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .390 on 6 PA) · league .340 · 14 pitches seen.357xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .257 on 11 PA) · league .273 · 19 pitches seen.265xwOBA .408 shrunk (raw .478 on 10 PA) · league .350 · 17 pitches seen.408xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .328 on 7 PA) · league .299 · 16 pitches seen.310xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 33 pitches seen.309xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .270 on 6 PA) · league .346 · 32 pitches seen.321xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .211 on 14 PA) · league .289 · 82 pitches seen.247xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .440 on 6 PA) · league .257 · 20 pitches seen.318
vs LHP · 339 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 19%38%Whiff 30% of 10 swings · league 21%30%Whiff 36% of 11 swings · league 23%36%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 17%9%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 14%7%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 25%29%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 29%13%Whiff 43% of 21 swings · league 48%43%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 34%14%
vs LHP · 339 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 40% of 20 pitches · league 63%40%Swings at 48% of 21 pitches · league 71%48%Swings at 55% of 20 pitches · league 64%55%Swings at 63% of 24 pitches · league 67%63%Swings at 67% of 21 pitches · league 76%67%Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 72%79%Swings at 58% of 19 pitches · league 59%58%Swings at 88% of 17 pitches · league 68%88%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 66%69%Swings at 21% of 33 pitches · league 30%21%Swings at 25% of 32 pitches · league 26%25%Swings at 26% of 82 pitches · league 31%26%Swings at 70% of 20 pitches · league 41%70%
vs LHP · 339 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jonathan Aranda against each of Cristopher Sánchez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker46%95.0+18″ / +5″.310.31413.0%12.4%17About league average vs these
Changeup35%87.2+17″ / +0″.319.32214.4%16.2%5Little history vs this shape
Slider19%86.6-1″ / -3″.314.31827.2%32.3%11About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jonathan Aranda · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.333.429.333.357.48928.6%14.3%28.6%85.2102.525.0%50.0%75.0%
Last 15 G921.316.333.474.340.31023.8%4.8%20.0%84.2102.56.7%33.3%46.7%
Last 30 G1534.281.294.562.354.27823.5%2.9%18.0%86.2102.512.0%40.0%36.0%
90 days4182.237.280.368.295.30928.0%4.9%19.2%89.4108.211.1%46.3%46.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 54 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 30%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.111.111.444.222.09866.7%0.0%26.1%87.298.70.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1438.212.316.515.378.26834.2%10.5%27.0%91.0103.05.0%45.0%30.0%
Last 30 G2886.227.326.467.354.32831.4%9.3%25.7%93.7110.06.2%52.1%43.8%
90 days71233.270.335.412.334.31625.3%7.3%20.4%91.8110.97.8%46.4%39.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 153 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 23%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.200.250.400.281.27050.0%6.2%27.0%86.0102.514.3%57.1%57.1%
Last 15 G1559.250.322.500.364.28330.5%8.5%24.6%88.1103.05.7%40.0%37.1%
Last 30 G30120.243.317.495.354.31429.2%7.5%23.8%91.1110.08.2%47.9%41.1%
90 days74315.261.321.401.324.31526.0%6.7%20.1%91.2110.98.7%46.4%41.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 207 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 25%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 8%
Jonathan Aranda · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating76Above average
Last 100 pitches28trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.331 / .343results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider86.188.318.741Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball83.798.4-25.094Out
Sep 23LHPSinker88.551.02.099Out
Sep 22LHPSlider86.298.916.623Single
Sep 22LHPSlider86.2102.5291.265Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup89.464.40.075Out
Sep 19RHPFastball96.998.731.717Home run
Sep 18LHPChangeup82.454.9-59.190Out
Sep 18LHPCurveball77.394.348.010Out
Sep 18LHPSlider86.457.5-13.077Force out
Sep 18LHPSinker88.598.125.578Double
Sep 18RHPChangeup84.593.9-6.184Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411012
Sep 23400002
Sep 22311001
Sep 22100001
Sep 19414102
Sep 18512000
Sep 17512012
Sep 15411002
Sep 13528212
Sep 12411010

Two strikes

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPwith two strikes
Cristopher Sánchez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup35%40%37.2%24.8%18.3%
Sinker46%32%8.8%18.6%17.7%
Slider19%28%34.7%26.8%21.6%
Jonathan Aranda bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jonathan Aranda with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.9%44.1%
Whiff%21.6%22.7%
Contact%78.4%77.3%
Chase%38.1%38.2%
wOBA.213.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.6%21.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.346
K%25.3%
BB%7.3%
Whiff%10.1%
Barrel%6.0%
Hard-hit%30.9%
Avg EV91.3

Against left-handers, last 90 days

79 PA
wOBA.294
xwOBA vs this mix.305against pitches like his
RV/100-0.86
Hard-hit%30.9%
K%27.1%
BB%7.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Cristopher SánchezLHP · PHI vs TB
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 25.3 batters over 5.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.6%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.2%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.8%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.3%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.7%
BB%6.0%
Whiff%14.2%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff118
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker46%12194.94.6%
Changeup35%12087.323.4%
Slider19%10986.620.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209824%10%48%.260
Sep 159819%11%30%.466
Sep 98112%6%35%.498

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jonathan Aranda: every projection we've made →