MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PHI · batting 8Justin Crawford
Bats leftTalent grade DPowerCold
.316wOBA vs RHP.292xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · TBFreddy Peralta
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.7projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Freddy Peralta's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 53% usage, 94.5 mph, +6.8″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .344 vs league .349 (about even).Fastball 53%Changeup: 24% usage, 87.3 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .296 vs league .302 (about even).Changeup 24%Curveball: 13% usage, 79.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .338 vs league .344 (about even).Curveball 13%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Justin Crawford: wOBA .325 vs league .331 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Justin Crawford's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Justin Crawford's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 85.2 mph at -4°Out: 100.1 mph at 28°Out: 97.6 mph at 8°Single: 96.8 mph at 10°Out: 75.3 mph at 49°Out: 86.4 mph at -46°Out: 80.2 mph at -3°Triple: 93.0 mph at 20°Out: 90.1 mph at -26°Out: 59.5 mph at 45°Out: 69.5 mph at -20°Single: 65.7 mph at -46°Out: 33.9 mph at -20°Out: 89.9 mph at 46°Double: 102.9 mph at 24°Out: 89.9 mph at 28°Out: 74.4 mph at -60°Single: 90.7 mph at 16°Out: 73.9 mph at -45°Out: 87.9 mph at 3°Out: 102.0 mph at -6°Out: 73.8 mph at -42°Home run: 104.7 mph at 27°Out: 70.3 mph at -22°Single: 96.5 mph at 15°Single: 77.5 mph at -61°Out: 56.3 mph at 23°Out: 100.3 mph at -18°Single: 66.2 mph at -15°Out: 101.8 mph at 9°Double: 96.7 mph at 21°Out: 89.2 mph at 0°Out: 94.3 mph at -26°Out: 103.5 mph at -28°Out: 98.1 mph at 21°Out: 99.5 mph at -1°Out: 82.0 mph at -31°Out: 96.3 mph at -18°Single: 87.1 mph at -8°Single: 96.7 mph at -17°
38% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.9%59.0%+0.9
2+ total bases30.3%29.1%+1.2
Home run7.5%6.4%+1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.9
Home run
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Justin Crawford hits
Justin Crawford · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .296 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 35 pitches seen.284xwOBA .345 shrunk (raw .421 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 28 pitches seen.345xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .218 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 17 pitches seen.244xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .275 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 38 pitches seen.307xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .391 on 14 PA) · league .386 · 41 pitches seen.389xwOBA .433 shrunk (raw .544 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 32 pitches seen.433xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .295 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 25 pitches seen.304xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .338 on 14 PA) · league .351 · 28 pitches seen.344xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .325 on 18 PA) · league .292 · 36 pitches seen.312xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .345 on 15 PA) · league .377 · 97 pitches seen.359xwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .178 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 48 pitches seen.230xwOBA .205 shrunk (raw .176 on 24 PA) · league .263 · 78 pitches seen.205xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .274 on 27 PA) · league .274 · 115 pitches seen.274
vs RHP · 618 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 8% of 25 swings · league 22%8%Whiff 5% of 20 swings · league 20%5%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 11% of 27 swings · league 10%11%Whiff 3% of 29 swings · league 9%3%Whiff 0% of 27 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 14%20%Whiff 8% of 25 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 4% of 26 swings · league 17%4%Whiff 22% of 23 swings · league 28%22%Whiff 20% of 25 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 17% of 36 swings · league 32%17%Whiff 21% of 47 swings · league 49%21%
vs RHP · 618 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 71% of 35 pitches · league 62%71%Swings at 71% of 28 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 77% of 17 pitches · league 66%77%Swings at 71% of 38 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 71% of 41 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 84% of 32 pitches · league 70%84%Swings at 40% of 25 pitches · league 65%40%Swings at 89% of 28 pitches · league 68%89%Swings at 72% of 36 pitches · league 60%72%Swings at 24% of 97 pitches · league 24%24%Swings at 52% of 48 pitches · league 34%52%Swings at 46% of 78 pitches · league 40%46%Swings at 41% of 115 pitches · league 32%41%
vs RHP · 618 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Justin Crawford against each of Freddy Peralta's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball53%94.5+7″ / +17″.344.34911.4%17.1%53About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup24%87.3+17″ / +4″.296.30216.2%26.2%20About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball13%79.2-4″ / -4″.338.34417.8%27.0%22About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper8%82.4-10″ / +6″.325.33117.3%25.9%8About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Justin Crawford · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.273.273.455.340.38918.2%0.0%0.0%89.8100.112.5%37.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1538.235.270.324.281.30518.4%5.3%12.1%84.6103.53.7%33.3%37.0%
Last 30 G3082.236.288.278.269.29514.6%7.3%12.8%86.4104.61.6%40.3%27.4%
90 days66186.277.311.355.316.30312.4%5.4%11.4%85.9109.21.3%40.0%29.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 150 balls in play
Ground 64%Line drive 17%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.06650.0%0.0%0.0%86.486.40.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G78.375.375.875.519.49412.5%0.0%6.7%84.6104.728.6%28.6%28.6%
Last 30 G78.375.375.875.519.49412.5%0.0%6.7%84.6104.728.6%28.6%28.6%
90 days1722.400.455.600.457.38813.6%4.5%13.2%80.4104.711.8%17.6%35.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 65%Line drive 18%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.231.231.385.283.33523.1%0.0%0.0%89.4100.111.1%33.3%44.4%
Last 15 G1546.262.289.429.326.34017.4%4.3%11.1%84.6104.78.8%32.4%35.3%
Last 30 G3090.250.295.338.292.31314.4%6.7%12.2%86.2104.74.3%39.1%27.5%
90 days67208.290.327.382.332.31312.5%5.3%11.6%85.3109.22.4%37.7%29.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 167 balls in play
Ground 64%Line drive 17%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 4%
Justin Crawford · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating24Poor
Last 100 pitches57trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.306 / .290running 16 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup88.685.2-4.171Double play
Sep 25RHPSinker90.3100.128.939Out
Sep 24RHPCutter90.197.68.639Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.596.810.708Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup83.875.349.075Out
Sep 22LHPSinker92.586.4-46.132Out
Sep 20RHPCutter90.280.2-3.111Out
Sep 20RHPFastball96.393.020.287Triple
Sep 20RHPCutter89.990.1-26.060Out
Sep 19RHPCutter90.059.545.153Out
Sep 19LHPSinker97.869.5-20.042Out
Sep 17RHPCutter90.965.7-46.227Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25311000
Sep 24200001
Sep 23211000
Sep 22200001
Sep 20413001
Sep 19400002
Sep 17411000
Sep 16412010
Sep 13411010
Sep 12314100

Two strikes

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPwith two strikes
Freddy Peralta with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball53%48%13.9%15.0%18.0%
Changeup24%27%25.9%16.0%18.6%
Curveball13%13%23.5%19.6%20.0%
Sweeper8%10%29.2%17.9%19.3%
Offspeed1%2%40.0%28.6%13.1%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Justin Crawford bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Justin Crawford with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.5%41.0%
Whiff%17.7%21.3%
Contact%82.3%78.7%
Chase%39.3%39.6%
wOBA.249.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.1%19.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDPower type
wOBA.323
K%14.7%
BB%6.2%
Whiff%7.2%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%29.6%
Avg EV86.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

186 PA
wOBA.316
xwOBA vs this mix.292against pitches like his
RV/100-0.61
Hard-hit%31.9%
K%13.9%
BB%5.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB vs PHI
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.4 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 31.6%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.4%13%67 strikeouts: 9.0%9%78 strikeouts: 5.2%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.0%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.8%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%11.4%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball53%12694.79.7%
Changeup24%8887.312.5%
Curveball13%6979.113.4%
Sweeper8%10182.514.2%
Slider1%7882.911.1%
Offspeed1%–73.928.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199726%12%9%.290
Sep 138622%9%6%.117
Sep 8928%4%50%.217

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Justin Crawford: every projection we've made →