MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TB · batting 9Nick Fortes
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedHot
.340wOBA vs LHP.296xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · PHICristopher Sánchez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 118Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Cristopher Sánchez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 46% usage, 95.0 mph, +18.1″ arm side, +4.6″ rise. Nick Fortes: wOBA .372 vs league .370 (about even).Sinker 46%Changeup: 35% usage, 87.2 mph, +17.0″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Nick Fortes: wOBA .335 vs league .332 (about even).Changeup 35%Slider: 19% usage, 86.6 mph, -0.7″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Nick Fortes: wOBA .310 vs league .307 (about even).Slider 19%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nick Fortes's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Nick Fortes's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 72.1 mph at -56°Home run: 102.0 mph at 26°Out: 97.2 mph at 38°Single: 105.9 mph at -28°Out: 112.7 mph at -1°Out: 30.5 mph at 13°Out: 87.6 mph at 38°Double: 95.0 mph at 16°Double: 101.2 mph at 9°Out: 71.8 mph at 64°Out: 85.0 mph at 65°Out: 99.7 mph at 42°Out: 85.9 mph at 75°Home run: 97.9 mph at 24°Out: 102.1 mph at -20°Out: 85.6 mph at 22°Out: 75.9 mph at -7°Single: 26.7 mph at 14°Out: 97.3 mph at -24°Single: 100.1 mph at -17°Double: 99.7 mph at 0°Single: 59.8 mph at 7°Out: 60.8 mph at -48°Out: 91.2 mph at 30°Out: 79.1 mph at 42°Out: 100.8 mph at -17°Out: 38.3 mph at -32°Out: 63.5 mph at 76°Out: 69.2 mph at 88°Out: 88.2 mph at 23°Out: 94.3 mph at -4°Out: 44.5 mph at 33°Out: 84.2 mph at 20°Single: 78.3 mph at 12°Out: 55.3 mph at 68°Out: 101.9 mph at 7°Out: 90.7 mph at -18°Out: 61.7 mph at -53°Out: 57.9 mph at 78°Out: 66.8 mph at -45°
35% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.2%56.1%+0.2
2+ total bases27.9%27.8%+0.1
Home run6.9%7.0%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Nick Fortes hits
Nick Fortes · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .638 on 4 PA) · league .243 · 11 pitches seen.342xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .235 on 4 PA) · league .296 · 10 pitches seen.281xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .318 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 3 pitches seen.263xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .029 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 7 pitches seen.268xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw .385 on 9 PA) · league .385 · 20 pitches seen.385xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .127 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 13 pitches seen.287xwOBA .338 shrunk (raw .727 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 12 pitches seen.338xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .274 on 4 PA) · league .350 · 15 pitches seen.331xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .322 on 8 PA) · league .299 · 17 pitches seen.308xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .136 on 8 PA) · league .302 · 19 pitches seen.236xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .455 on 4 PA) · league .346 · 22 pitches seen.373xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .388 on 6 PA) · league .289 · 49 pitches seen.322xwOBA .217 shrunk (raw .177 on 12 PA) · league .257 · 44 pitches seen.217
vs LHP · 242 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 19%10%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 21%13%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 11%18%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 17%20%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 14%25%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 16%9%Whiff 31% of 13 swings · league 25%31%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 29%14%Whiff 42% of 12 swings · league 48%42%Whiff 40% of 15 swings · league 34%40%
vs LHP · 242 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 91% of 11 pitches · league 63%91%Swings at 80% of 10 pitches · league 71%80%Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 64%100%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 67%57%Swings at 70% of 20 pitches · league 76%70%Swings at 85% of 13 pitches · league 72%85%Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 59%83%Swings at 80% of 15 pitches · league 68%80%Swings at 65% of 17 pitches · league 66%65%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 30%68%Swings at 32% of 22 pitches · league 26%32%Swings at 25% of 49 pitches · league 31%25%Swings at 34% of 44 pitches · league 41%34%
vs LHP · 242 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Nick Fortes against each of Cristopher Sánchez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker46%95.0+18″ / +5″.372.3708.8%11.0%11About league average vs these
Changeup35%87.2+17″ / +0″.335.33228.8%30.3%10About league average vs these
Slider19%86.6-1″ / -3″.310.30730.3%32.3%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nick Fortes · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.250.308.583.373.29930.8%7.7%33.3%87.9112.712.5%62.5%37.5%
Last 15 G1132.241.290.448.324.23321.9%6.2%22.6%80.1112.74.3%39.1%30.4%
Last 30 G2360.296.356.500.374.31416.7%8.3%19.6%81.0112.74.4%35.6%35.6%
90 days2970.286.348.460.356.29915.7%7.1%20.0%80.5112.73.8%30.2%34.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 53 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G12.000.000.000.000.00050.0%0.0%33.3%–––––
Last 15 G714.154.214.385.300.16721.4%7.1%18.2%91.9100.10.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 30 G2034.250.273.469.344.25514.7%2.9%24.1%82.8105.10.0%30.8%30.8%
90 days2856.264.291.472.343.26416.1%3.6%20.2%84.5105.12.3%34.9%27.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 23%Fly ball 12%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.214.267.500.346.27733.3%6.7%33.3%87.9112.712.5%62.5%37.5%
Last 15 G1546.214.267.429.317.21521.7%6.5%21.4%83.1112.73.2%41.9%29.0%
Last 30 G3094.279.326.488.363.29316.0%6.4%21.1%81.6112.72.8%33.8%33.8%
90 days41126.276.323.466.350.28415.9%5.6%20.1%82.3112.73.1%32.3%31.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 96 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 23%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 12%
Nick Fortes · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating28Below average
Last 100 pitches5trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.336 / .294running 43 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker96.372.1-56.239Out
Sep 25LHPSinker96.4102.0261.262Home run
Sep 22LHPCutter91.297.238.154Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.1105.9-28.104Single
Sep 22LHPCutter93.9112.7-1.494Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup76.430.513.273Out
Sep 20LHPFastball92.087.638.023Out
Sep 18LHPCutter87.995.016.636Double
Sep 16LHPFastball91.4101.29.614Double
Sep 16RHPFastball97.471.864.000Out
Sep 15LHPFastball94.985.065.012Out
Sep 13RHPSinker91.999.742.118Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25414102
Sep 23200001
Sep 22411000
Sep 20300002
Sep 18212010
Sep 16212000
Sep 15100000
Sep 13414110
Sep 10300010
Sep 6411001

Two strikes

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPwith two strikes
Cristopher Sánchez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup35%40%37.2%24.8%18.3%
Sinker46%32%8.8%18.6%17.7%
Slider19%28%34.7%26.8%21.6%
Nick Fortes bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nick Fortes with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.0%41.5%
Whiff%22.4%21.6%
Contact%77.6%78.4%
Chase%42.3%39.9%
wOBA.256.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.9%23.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.321
K%17.4%
BB%6.0%
Whiff%10.2%
Barrel%2.6%
Hard-hit%25.7%
Avg EV84.2

Against left-handers, last 90 days

66 PA
wOBA.340
xwOBA vs this mix.296against pitches like his
RV/1000.38
Hard-hit%23.6%
K%15.9%
BB%6.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Cristopher SánchezLHP · PHI vs TB
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 25.3 batters over 5.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.6%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.2%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.8%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.3%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.7%
BB%6.0%
Whiff%14.2%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff118
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker46%12194.94.6%
Changeup35%12087.323.4%
Slider19%10986.620.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209824%10%48%.260
Sep 159819%11%30%.466
Sep 98112%6%35%.498

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nick Fortes: every projection we've made →