MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TEX · batting 9Danny Jansen
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedHot
.357wOBA vs RHP.304xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · MINJoe Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 89Trending Up
5.3projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Joe Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 93.8 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .361 vs league .354 (about even).Fastball 44%Sweeper: 19% usage, 80.9 mph, -13.6″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .286 vs league .279 (about even).Sweeper 19%Splitter: 14% usage, 88.1 mph, +16.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .356 vs league .350 (about even).Splitter 14%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.8 mph, -10.4″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .290 vs league .283 (about even).Curveball 10%Sinker: 7% usage, 93.4 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +9.7″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .358 vs league .351 (about even).Sinker 7%Slider: 6% usage, 87.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .327 vs league .320 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Danny Jansen's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Danny Jansen's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 80.7 mph at 18°Out: 96.5 mph at 39°Out: 87.2 mph at 28°Out: 96.7 mph at 28°Out: 75.0 mph at 62°Out: 78.2 mph at 40°Out: 80.9 mph at -1°Out: 103.1 mph at 7°Out: 93.7 mph at 36°Out: 84.2 mph at 77°Out: 96.8 mph at 36°Out: 98.3 mph at -3°Out: 77.8 mph at 48°Double: 99.0 mph at 3°Out: 83.5 mph at 7°Single: 84.7 mph at 0°Single: 71.1 mph at 41°Out: 79.5 mph at 59°Single: 66.7 mph at -50°Out: 90.5 mph at 46°Out: 87.3 mph at 25°Out: 24.2 mph at -73°Out: 98.0 mph at -5°Single: 103.9 mph at 4°Out: 89.5 mph at -11°Out: 98.2 mph at -5°Double: 104.4 mph at 16°Single: 95.6 mph at 10°Out: 92.9 mph at 19°Out: 31.4 mph at 4°Out: 68.7 mph at 62°Single: 101.6 mph at 5°Out: 84.5 mph at 5°Home run: 99.7 mph at 29°Single: 96.4 mph at 7°Out: 93.7 mph at 24°Out: 80.6 mph at 67°Out: 91.8 mph at 60°Single: 105.5 mph at 5°Out: 91.0 mph at 47°
38% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.0%53.8%+1.2
2+ total bases29.1%28.2%+0.9
Home run10.0%9.7%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Danny Jansen hits
Danny Jansen · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .226 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 9 pitches seen.267xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .265 on 3 PA) · league .307 · 10 pitches seen.299xwOBA .228 shrunk (raw .018 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 7 pitches seen.228xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .224 on 5 PA) · league .342 · 9 pitches seen.307xwOBA .471 shrunk (raw .726 on 4 PA) · league .386 · 10 pitches seen.471xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .060 on 3 PA) · league .321 · 11 pitches seen.269xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .413 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 3 pitches seen.323xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .331 on 7 PA) · league .351 · 14 pitches seen.344xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .370 on 5 PA) · league .292 · 11 pitches seen.315xwOBA .427 shrunk (raw .729 on 2 PA) · league .377 · 13 pitches seen.427xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 13 pitches seen.285xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .451 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 9 pitches seen.290xwOBA .216 shrunk (raw .117 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 57 pitches seen.216
vs RHP · 176 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 6 swings · league 22%50%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 20%33%Whiff 67% of 6 swings · league 19%67%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 11%13%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 17%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 28%Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 24%67%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 32%25%Whiff 46% of 13 swings · league 49%46%
vs RHP · 176 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 72%60%Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 66%86%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 70%78%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 76%70%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 65%67%Swings at 71% of 14 pitches · league 68%71%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 60%64%Swings at 0% of 13 pitches · league 24%0%Swings at 23% of 13 pitches · league 34%23%Swings at 44% of 9 pitches · league 40%44%Swings at 23% of 57 pitches · league 32%23%
vs RHP · 176 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Danny Jansen against each of Joe Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%93.8+14″ / +13″.361.35414.2%13.1%11About league average vs these
Sweeper19%80.9-14″ / +1″.286.27932.7%31.6%5Little history vs this shape
Splitter14%88.1+16″ / +5″.356.35016.5%16.1%12About league average vs these
Curveball10%79.8-10″ / -8″.290.28329.7%28.6%4Little history vs this shape
Sinker7%93.4+17″ / +10″.358.35112.3%11.3%12About league average vs these
Slider6%87.2-0″ / +6″.327.32029.9%28.8%12About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Danny Jansen · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.100.182.100.145.29418.2%9.1%22.2%91.0103.10.0%50.0%12.5%
Last 15 G1535.323.382.484.412.3508.6%2.9%20.0%88.9105.53.4%44.8%24.1%
Last 30 G2347.302.348.512.395.31214.9%2.1%24.1%87.5105.55.4%40.5%24.3%
90 days2347.302.348.512.395.31214.9%2.1%24.1%87.5105.55.4%40.5%24.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 37 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 16%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.000.286.000.200.2810.0%14.3%0.0%84.396.70.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 15 G815.200.429.200.346.3176.7%20.0%5.9%79.4101.60.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 30 G1531.125.276.250.264.29519.4%12.9%21.2%78.2106.65.0%20.0%30.0%
90 days1531.125.276.250.264.29519.4%12.9%21.2%78.2106.65.0%20.0%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 15%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 25%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.067.222.067.167.28911.1%11.1%16.0%88.4103.10.0%38.5%23.1%
Last 15 G1550.293.396.415.394.3418.0%8.0%16.7%86.5105.52.6%38.5%23.1%
Last 30 G2378.239.320.418.345.30616.7%6.4%22.9%84.2106.65.3%33.3%26.3%
90 days2378.239.320.418.345.30616.7%6.4%22.9%84.2106.65.3%33.3%26.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 16%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 18%
Danny Jansen · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating32Below average
Last 100 pitches56trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.319 / .299running 21 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker94.180.718.916Single
Sep 25RHPFastball92.896.539.139Out
Sep 25LHPSweeper78.587.228.066Out
Sep 25LHPCutter91.496.728.399Out
Sep 24LHPSweeper80.975.062.010Out
Sep 24LHPCutter87.878.240.054Out
Sep 23RHPCutter91.580.9-1.111Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.3103.17.591Out
Sep 22RHPCutter93.893.736.163Out
Sep 22LHPFastball92.084.277.010Out
Sep 20RHPCutter86.496.836.261Out
Sep 20RHPFastball99.498.3-3.293Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411000
Sep 24300001
Sep 23300010
Sep 22400010
Sep 20400001
Sep 19412010
Sep 17322000
Sep 16411000
Sep 15311010
Sep 13412001

Two strikes

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Joe Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%41%13.2%15.9%18.0%
Curveball10%21%24.1%14.0%20.0%
Sweeper19%21%33.3%23.2%19.3%
Splitter14%11%11.1%10.0%19.0%
Sinker7%4%0.0%9.1%17.0%
Slider6%2%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Danny Jansen bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Danny Jansen with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.1%42.4%
Whiff%22.3%22.2%
Contact%77.7%77.8%
Chase%38.2%39.9%
wOBA.236.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.5%19.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.331
K%22.5%
BB%10.0%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%4.6%
Hard-hit%23.9%
Avg EV86.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

45 PA
wOBA.357
xwOBA vs this mix.304against pitches like his
RV/1001.18
Hard-hit%28.4%
K%18.8%
BB%7.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Joe RyanRHP · MIN vs TEX
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.2%22%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.7%12%78 strikeouts: 7.9%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.4%9%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 29% (red bars) · under: 71%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.5%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff89
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%10393.79.3%
Sweeper19%8280.919.2%
Splitter14%6188.112.1%
Curveball10%8679.710.7%
Sinker7%8993.55.7%
Slider6%8987.312.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199921%18%13%.396
Sep 13845%6%36%.507
Sep 76637%18%5%.395

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Danny Jansen: every projection we've made →