MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ATL · batting 9Dominic Smith
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.286wOBA vs RHP.251xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · MIAJack Ralston
Throws rightBTB Stuff 98Stable
2.3projected K25%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Jack Ralston's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Splitter: 52% usage, 82.4 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Dominic Smith: wOBA .269 vs league .284 (about even).Splitter 52%Fastball: 26% usage, 93.7 mph, +5.4″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Dominic Smith: wOBA .345 vs league .361 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 26%Slider: 22% usage, 85.1 mph, -1.6″ arm side, -0.2″ rise. Dominic Smith: wOBA .318 vs league .333 (pitcher's edge).Slider 22%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Dominic Smith's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Dominic Smith's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 80.7 mph at 78°Out: 72.4 mph at 7°Out: 96.6 mph at 30°Out: 90.5 mph at -38°Out: 85.4 mph at 28°Single: 93.4 mph at -17°Out: 83.3 mph at 43°Out: 87.3 mph at -46°Out: 69.6 mph at -6°Out: 85.1 mph at 30°Out: 88.1 mph at 59°Single: 79.7 mph at 19°Out: 89.9 mph at -26°Single: 84.8 mph at 7°Single: 86.4 mph at 11°Out: 80.6 mph at -11°Out: 99.0 mph at -1°Out: 85.9 mph at 44°Home run: 104.8 mph at 27°Out: 81.2 mph at -8°Single: 77.6 mph at 26°Out: 88.9 mph at 30°Out: 73.7 mph at 77°Single: 88.2 mph at 22°Single: 99.6 mph at -3°Out: 93.3 mph at 29°Single: 88.2 mph at 23°Out: 91.1 mph at 62°Out: 92.9 mph at -8°Out: 85.6 mph at 26°Out: 86.0 mph at -23°Home run: 99.3 mph at 32°Out: 87.8 mph at -37°Out: 78.3 mph at 9°Single: 91.7 mph at -26°Out: 96.2 mph at -12°Out: 100.0 mph at -3°Out: 87.5 mph at 9°Single: 89.8 mph at 4°Out: 68.7 mph at 69°
18% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.8%51.6%-0.9
2+ total bases27.0%27.7%-0.7
Home run6.3%7.0%-0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.4
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Dominic Smith hits
Where they meet

.286 xwOBA for Dominic Smith in the spots Jack Ralston throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .306 (-20 points). His best spot against righties is down and right, outside, and Jack Ralston puts 19% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jack Ralston · where he throws to left-handed hitters
8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing4%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing7%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing9%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%13% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing13%19% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing19%
All · 179 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%12% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters12%7% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters4%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%11% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters11%9% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters9%16% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters16%16% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters16%
Splitter · 94 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%21% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Fastball · 43 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%10% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%24% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters24%
Slider · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Dominic Smith · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .086 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 14 pitches seen.247xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .096 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 12 pitches seen.237xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .390 on 8 PA) · league .342 · 23 pitches seen.361xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .327 on 11 PA) · league .386 · 21 pitches seen.358xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .064 on 4 PA) · league .321 · 12 pitches seen.257xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .121 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 24 pitches seen.253xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .153 on 12 PA) · league .351 · 26 pitches seen.252xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .374 on 6 PA) · league .292 · 16 pitches seen.319xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .241 on 15 PA) · league .377 · 68 pitches seen.301xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 10 pitches seen.253xwOBA .249 shrunk (raw .233 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 72 pitches seen.249xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .391 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 73 pitches seen.324
vs RHP · 372 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 22%11%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 20%33%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 0% of 17 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 11%29%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 14%20%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 13%16%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 17%13%Whiff 24% of 25 swings · league 28%24%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 32%19%Whiff 63% of 16 swings · league 49%63%
vs RHP · 372 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 14 pitches · league 62%64%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 72%75%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 66%0%Swings at 70% of 23 pitches · league 70%70%Swings at 81% of 21 pitches · league 76%81%Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 70%58%Swings at 42% of 24 pitches · league 65%42%Swings at 73% of 26 pitches · league 68%73%Swings at 50% of 16 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 37% of 68 pitches · league 24%37%Swings at 50% of 10 pitches · league 34%50%Swings at 29% of 72 pitches · league 40%29%Swings at 22% of 73 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 372 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Dominic Smith against each of Jack Ralston's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Splitter52%82.4+10″ / +1″.269.28427.1%26.4%26About league average vs these
Fastball26%93.7+5″ / +19″.345.36114.4%17.1%346About league average vs these
Slider22%85.1-2″ / -0″.318.33327.1%27.4%143About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Dominic Smith · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.000.143.000.100.21128.6%14.3%23.1%86.296.60.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1327.160.222.160.185.16937.0%7.4%32.7%84.996.60.0%6.7%33.3%
Last 30 G2866.214.333.321.303.26521.2%13.6%20.3%88.2104.82.4%21.4%38.1%
90 days3690.215.311.304.284.25021.1%11.1%21.0%87.7104.81.7%25.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 12%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.0050.0%0.0%0.0%80.780.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G22.000.000.000.000.00250.0%0.0%20.0%80.780.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G66.167.167.167.150.03433.3%0.0%18.2%84.896.40.0%25.0%25.0%
90 days77.143.143.143.129.05328.6%0.0%16.7%82.796.40.0%20.0%20.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 20%Line drive 20%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 60%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.000.125.000.088.18525.0%12.5%21.4%85.196.60.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1529.148.207.148.172.15737.9%6.9%31.5%84.696.60.0%6.2%31.2%
Last 30 G3072.210.319.306.290.24622.2%12.5%20.1%87.9104.82.2%21.7%37.0%
90 days3897.209.299.291.272.23621.6%10.3%20.7%87.3104.81.5%24.6%32.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 65 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 12%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 12%
Dominic Smith · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating7Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.275 / .255running 20 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases0/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 11LHPCutter85.580.778.005Out
Sep 10RHPChangeup79.072.47.208Out
Sep 5RHPFastball94.996.630.461Out
Sep 5RHPFastball98.590.5-38.040Out
Aug 29RHPSlider83.385.428.067Out
Aug 21RHPSlider93.693.4-17.126Single
Aug 21RHPFastball99.283.343.017Out
Aug 21RHPSinker97.487.3-46.082Out
Aug 21RHPFastball96.869.6-6.064Out
Aug 17RHPSweeper84.485.130.040Out
Aug 16RHPSinker92.688.159.013Out
Aug 16RHPChangeup84.379.719.901Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23100001
Sep 11100000
Sep 10200001
Sep 5300010
Aug 29100000
Aug 21411000
Aug 19200002
Aug 17100000
Aug 16411001
Aug 14100001

Two strikes

Jack Ralston MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Jack Ralston with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter52%53%26.9%26.2%21.3%
Fastball26%30%25.0%25.0%18.3%
Slider22%17%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Dominic Smith bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Dominic Smith with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.9%41.3%
Whiff%20.7%21.6%
Contact%79.3%78.4%
Chase%41.4%39.4%
wOBA.238.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.3%21.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.312
K%20.7%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%9.9%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%22.6%
Avg EV87.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

90 PA
wOBA.286
xwOBA vs this mix.251against pitches like his
RV/100-0.87
Hard-hit%17.6%
K%21.4%
BB%9.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jack RalstonRHP · MIA vs ATL2 days' rest · short rest
2.3projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 10.1 batters over 2.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 80.0%80%≤34 strikeouts: 11.6%12%45 strikeouts: 5.4%5%56 strikeouts: 2.1%2%67 strikeouts: 0.6%1%78 strikeouts: 0.2%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.6%
BB%11.6%
Whiff%6.5%
Velo85.9
BTB Stuff98
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Splitter52%11082.48.9%
Fastball26%7393.65.6%
Slider22%9885.31.7%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jack Ralston MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Dominic Smith: every projection we've made →