MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 3Matt Olson
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MIATBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Matt Olson's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.0 mph at 39°Out: 94.1 mph at 67°Out: 106.4 mph at 17°Out: 97.4 mph at -17°Out: 105.8 mph at 0°Home run: 107.4 mph at 32°Out: 104.7 mph at 9°Double: 67.5 mph at 43°Out: 101.3 mph at -8°Out: 98.6 mph at -13°Out: 87.0 mph at 67°Out: 107.5 mph at 5°Single: 97.2 mph at -1°Out: 99.0 mph at -3°Out: 99.5 mph at -22°Single: 106.0 mph at 15°Out: 77.0 mph at 37°Out: 54.4 mph at 57°Single: 74.9 mph at -21°Single: 89.7 mph at 8°Single: 109.2 mph at 9°Home run: 102.8 mph at 30°Out: 90.4 mph at 76°Out: 83.8 mph at 56°Out: 54.1 mph at -61°Single: 37.0 mph at 7°Out: 96.9 mph at 41°Single: 48.5 mph at -12°Single: 109.5 mph at 17°Out: 64.4 mph at -49°Out: 100.7 mph at -7°Out: 86.5 mph at -27°Home run: 101.9 mph at 30°Single: 80.6 mph at 20°Single: 98.0 mph at -11°Out: 100.9 mph at -2°Out: 90.3 mph at 43°Out: 101.1 mph at 40°Out: 98.2 mph at -3°Out: 99.3 mph at 27°
60% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.8%63.0%-0.2
2+ total bases42.6%43.1%-0.5
Home run18.7%19.8%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+1.0
Park
-1.4
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
-1.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Matt Olson · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.154.143.154.129.18714.3%0.0%17.2%91.5106.40.0%58.3%16.7%
Last 15 G1342.289.310.447.343.3427.1%4.8%14.9%93.5109.510.8%64.9%32.4%
Last 30 G2685.218.259.346.274.33317.6%5.9%21.0%94.3110.49.2%64.6%33.8%
90 days69218.229.312.479.348.36523.9%10.6%22.9%93.6110.715.5%55.6%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 142 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 23%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.429.4291.000.593.6400.0%0.0%23.1%98.4107.514.3%85.7%28.6%
Last 15 G1022.286.318.619.393.39322.7%4.5%32.6%90.1107.512.5%68.8%31.2%
Last 30 G2142.225.262.425.295.28326.2%4.8%33.7%87.8107.56.9%51.7%24.1%
90 days59121.237.281.491.336.31330.6%5.0%27.1%90.2110.314.3%49.4%29.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 77 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 17%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.250.238.450.283.3389.5%0.0%19.0%94.0107.55.3%68.4%21.1%
Last 15 G1564.288.312.508.360.36012.5%4.7%20.8%92.5109.511.3%66.0%32.1%
Last 30 G30127.220.260.373.281.31620.5%5.5%25.2%92.3110.48.5%60.6%30.9%
90 days79339.232.301.484.343.34626.3%8.6%24.4%92.4110.715.1%53.4%33.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 219 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 21%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 12%
Matt Olson · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating90Top tier
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.349 / .365running 16 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCutter86.2101.039.303Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.194.167.008Out
Sep 24RHPSlider83.5106.417.660Sac fly
Sep 24RHPFastball94.497.4-17.132Out
Sep 24LHPFastball96.4105.80.480Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper81.7107.4321.809Home run
Sep 23LHPFastball92.0104.79.722Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper84.467.543.369Double
Sep 23RHPCutter98.7101.3-8.221Double play
Sep 22LHPSinker94.698.6-13.198Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.287.067.003Out
Sep 22LHPSinker93.1107.55.590Double play
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24500000
Sep 23426100
Sep 22411000
Sep 20400002
Sep 19422000
Sep 18536100
Sep 16411001
Sep 15422001
Sep 14400013
Sep 13536100

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Matt Olson: every projection we've made →