← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · MIA · batting 1Otto Lopez
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · ATLTBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Otto Lopez's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 103.5 mph at 0°Out: 93.5 mph at -30°Single: 71.4 mph at 25°Single: 95.2 mph at 6°Out: 95.4 mph at -2°Out: 83.0 mph at 2°Out: 63.1 mph at 11°Single: 64.9 mph at 21°Out: 101.7 mph at -31°Out: 84.8 mph at -18°Out: 102.4 mph at 23°Out: 100.4 mph at -10°Out: 85.0 mph at -17°Home run: 99.4 mph at 23°Out: 103.1 mph at 7°Out: 80.8 mph at 28°Single: 95.6 mph at 17°Double: 100.0 mph at 24°Out: 92.6 mph at -2°Out: 91.2 mph at 59°Single: 100.3 mph at 16°Out: 93.5 mph at 42°Out: 94.7 mph at 29°Single: 99.5 mph at 14°Out: 68.5 mph at 8°Out: 83.8 mph at 27°Out: 99.0 mph at 32°Out: 105.3 mph at 0°Out: 90.9 mph at 64°Out: 94.5 mph at 45°Single: 110.0 mph at 9°Out: 70.8 mph at -27°Single: 91.0 mph at 12°Single: 74.7 mph at 0°Out: 110.8 mph at -8°Single: 80.7 mph at 0°Single: 108.6 mph at 0°Single: 60.0 mph at -52°Single: 65.4 mph at 34°Single: 73.4 mph at -42°
43% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.0%67.9%-0.8
2+ total bases36.5%37.7%-1.2
Home run7.4%8.7%-1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.3
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Otto Lopez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.200.333.400.329.35816.7%11.1%20.7%91.3103.18.3%58.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1555.289.418.378.368.37116.4%10.9%21.1%90.8110.08.3%47.2%41.7%
Last 30 G3093.312.398.388.366.35812.9%7.5%17.3%90.0110.05.8%46.4%36.2%
90 days74245.282.347.400.348.32111.0%7.3%14.8%87.3110.04.6%38.7%33.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 194 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 21%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.200.333.200.267.37916.7%16.7%26.7%82.9103.50.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G815.429.467.571.453.35913.3%6.7%16.1%85.0110.80.0%16.7%33.3%
Last 30 G1943.237.302.421.312.31418.6%9.3%19.5%85.4110.86.5%29.0%22.6%
90 days4190.235.267.383.290.31315.6%5.6%18.9%88.9110.85.7%35.7%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 70 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 19%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.200.333.350.313.36416.7%12.5%22.7%89.2103.56.2%50.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1570.322.429.424.386.36915.7%10.0%19.8%89.4110.86.2%39.6%39.6%
Last 30 G30136.288.368.398.349.34414.7%8.1%18.1%88.6110.86.0%41.0%32.0%
90 days74335.269.325.395.332.31912.2%6.9%15.9%87.7110.84.9%37.9%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 264 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 21%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 10%
Otto Lopez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating60Average
Last 100 pitches95trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.331 / .328results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball92.5103.50.429Out
Sep 24LHPSlider82.893.5-30.070Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup81.071.425.890Single
Sep 23RHPFastball93.195.26.484Single
Sep 23RHPFastball94.395.4-2.321Force out
Sep 23RHPChangeup86.183.02.269Out
Sep 22LHPSplitter82.763.111.186Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper87.864.921.558Single
Sep 22RHPFastball99.1101.7-31.076Out
Sep 22RHPSinker92.684.8-18.076Out
Sep 20RHPFastball92.8102.423.859Out
Sep 20RHPSinker95.0100.4-10.262Force out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411010
Sep 23411001
Sep 22611001
Sep 20400001
Sep 19614121
Sep 18423000
Sep 16522001
Sep 15500021
Sep 14500003
Sep 13411000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Otto Lopez: every projection we've made →