MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TOR · batting 4Alejandro Kirk
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerCold
.357wOBA vs RHP.328xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.1projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 29% usage, 93.0 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Alejandro Kirk: wOBA .357 vs league .346 (about even).Sinker 29%Slider: 27% usage, 85.2 mph, -2.4″ arm side, -1.1″ rise. Alejandro Kirk: wOBA .303 vs league .291 (about even).Slider 27%Fastball: 22% usage, 93.7 mph, +10.3″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Alejandro Kirk: wOBA .364 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 22%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.5 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Alejandro Kirk: wOBA .335 vs league .323 (about even).Changeup 20%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Alejandro Kirk's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Alejandro Kirk's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.9 mph at -14°Out: 88.8 mph at -32°Double: 105.9 mph at 8°Single: 89.9 mph at 11°Out: 73.3 mph at -27°Out: 74.7 mph at 54°Out: 84.1 mph at -18°Out: 77.7 mph at -8°Single: 102.2 mph at 9°Out: 48.9 mph at -25°Single: 77.4 mph at -12°Single: 107.3 mph at 9°Out: 81.2 mph at 53°Out: 103.3 mph at -8°Out: 74.5 mph at 6°Single: 94.4 mph at 5°Out: 75.3 mph at -1°Single: 103.0 mph at 10°Out: 86.9 mph at -17°Out: 48.0 mph at -53°Out: 83.3 mph at -22°Single: 77.3 mph at 22°Out: 86.8 mph at 6°Single: 106.2 mph at 5°Home run: 106.8 mph at 23°Out: 83.2 mph at 46°Single: 70.6 mph at 18°Out: 95.2 mph at -6°Out: 59.9 mph at 11°Single: 73.2 mph at 8°Out: 100.7 mph at 7°Out: 84.9 mph at 43°Out: 85.4 mph at 24°Single: 109.7 mph at 3°Out: 98.4 mph at 39°Out: 63.9 mph at 77°Single: 102.6 mph at 10°Home run: 97.7 mph at 27°Out: 91.8 mph at -30°Out: 103.2 mph at -10°
35% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit71.1%69.1%+2.0
2+ total bases42.5%40.4%+2.1
Home run10.3%9.1%+1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Alejandro Kirk hits
Where they meet

.331 xwOBA for Alejandro Kirk in the spots Rhett Lowder throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .308 (+22 points). His best spot against righties is down and right, outside, and Rhett Lowder puts 30% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Rhett Lowder · where he throws to right-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing7%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing9%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing10%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing10%30% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing30%
All · 422 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%15% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters15%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%15% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters15%
Sinker · 183 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%13% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters13%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%53% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters53%
Slider · 152 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters9%9% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters9%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters41% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters41%22% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters22%
Changeup · 46 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%32% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters32%23% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters23%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%
Fastball · 22 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%16% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters16%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%16% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters16%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%26% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters26%
Curveball · 19 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Alejandro Kirk · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw .473 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 24 pitches seen.340xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .306 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 22 pitches seen.307xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .129 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.236xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .318 on 5 PA) · league .342 · 32 pitches seen.335xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .346 on 20 PA) · league .386 · 57 pitches seen.361xwOBA .333 shrunk (raw .342 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 41 pitches seen.333xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .430 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 36 pitches seen.363xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .204 on 19 PA) · league .351 · 42 pitches seen.261xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .296 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 48 pitches seen.294xwOBA .405 shrunk (raw .443 on 9 PA) · league .377 · 59 pitches seen.405xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 29 pitches seen.307xwOBA .255 shrunk (raw .251 on 21 PA) · league .263 · 82 pitches seen.255xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .376 on 36 PA) · league .274 · 189 pitches seen.350
vs RHP · 680 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 22%15%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 20%13%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 5% of 20 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 5% of 42 swings · league 9%5%Whiff 0% of 23 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 14%5%Whiff 9% of 23 swings · league 13%9%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 17%5%Whiff 20% of 20 swings · league 28%20%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 10% of 41 swings · league 32%10%Whiff 24% of 42 swings · league 49%24%
vs RHP · 680 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 54% of 24 pitches · league 62%54%Swings at 73% of 22 pitches · league 72%73%Swings at 16% of 19 pitches · league 66%16%Swings at 63% of 32 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 74% of 57 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 56% of 41 pitches · league 70%56%Swings at 61% of 36 pitches · league 65%61%Swings at 55% of 42 pitches · league 68%55%Swings at 46% of 48 pitches · league 60%46%Swings at 34% of 59 pitches · league 24%34%Swings at 14% of 29 pitches · league 34%14%Swings at 50% of 82 pitches · league 40%50%Swings at 22% of 189 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 680 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Alejandro Kirk against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker29%93.0+17″ / +7″.357.3466.7%12.1%356About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider27%85.2-2″ / -1″.303.29121.0%34.4%208About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball22%93.7+10″ / +14″.364.35111.1%16.8%464About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup20%86.5+17″ / +0″.335.32315.3%28.8%168About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Alejandro Kirk · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.400.538.400.438.34115.4%23.1%12.5%86.8107.30.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1549.310.408.381.361.33514.3%14.3%10.1%86.7109.72.9%34.3%28.6%
Last 30 G3093.291.398.456.382.34311.8%15.1%10.0%89.5109.74.4%47.1%35.3%
90 days58171.287.368.427.359.3379.4%11.7%10.0%88.4109.73.0%42.2%32.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 135 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 19%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.200.200.400.250.1840.0%0.0%10.0%82.4105.90.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G613.385.385.769.485.3210.0%0.0%9.5%86.0105.90.0%30.8%46.2%
Last 30 G1434.324.324.471.355.29811.8%0.0%13.3%90.0108.80.0%41.4%44.8%
90 days3677.343.416.478.413.33214.3%11.7%13.6%90.1108.81.8%37.5%41.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 56 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 34%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.333.444.400.386.29811.1%16.7%11.8%85.1107.30.0%23.1%30.8%
Last 15 G1562.327.403.473.387.33211.3%11.3%10.0%86.5109.72.1%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G30127.301.378.460.374.33011.8%11.0%10.9%89.6109.73.1%45.4%38.1%
90 days62248.304.383.442.376.33510.9%11.7%11.0%88.9109.72.6%40.8%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 191 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 24%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 6%
Alejandro Kirk · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating85Excellent
Last 100 pitches47trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.371 / .356results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup86.894.9-14.122Double play
Sep 25LHPChangeup87.588.8-32.046Double play
Sep 25LHPCurveball82.5105.98.630Double
Sep 23RHPCutter91.089.911.606Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup86.073.3-27.040Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.174.754.139Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball86.084.1-18.048Out
Sep 21RHPCutter88.377.7-8.050Out
Sep 21RHPSinker95.4102.29.714Single
Sep 19LHPCurveball75.948.9-25.084Force out
Sep 19RHPSinker96.177.4-12.035Single
Sep 19RHPSplitter88.3107.39.725Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25512020
Sep 23411002
Sep 23100000
Sep 21411010
Sep 19422000
Sep 18411001
Sep 15411000
Sep 14522010
Sep 12425101
Sep 11500021

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.4%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%17.7%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.3%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.4%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.7%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%20.7%
Alejandro Kirk bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Alejandro Kirk with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%21.9%43.3%
Whiff%10.7%23.5%
Contact%89.3%76.5%
Chase%40.2%39.4%
wOBA.291.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes10.5%22.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.361
K%11.6%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%5.3%
Barrel%3.5%
Hard-hit%32.0%
Avg EV89.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

171 PA
wOBA.357
xwOBA vs this mix.328against pitches like his
RV/1000.62
Hard-hit%32.4%
K%10.9%
BB%11.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR6 days' rest
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 62.4%62%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 10.8%11%56 strikeouts: 5.6%6%67 strikeouts: 2.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.5%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Alejandro Kirk: every projection we've made →