MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TOR · batting 8Andrés Giménez
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.288wOBA vs RHP.301xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.1projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 29% usage, 93.0 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Andrés Giménez: wOBA .342 vs league .355 (about even).Sinker 29%Slider: 27% usage, 85.2 mph, -2.4″ arm side, -1.1″ rise. Andrés Giménez: wOBA .301 vs league .313 (about even).Slider 27%Fastball: 22% usage, 93.7 mph, +10.3″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Andrés Giménez: wOBA .349 vs league .364 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 22%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.5 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Andrés Giménez: wOBA .291 vs league .303 (about even).Changeup 20%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Andrés Giménez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Andrés Giménez's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 67.6 mph at 39°Double: 99.2 mph at 26°Out: 94.9 mph at 52°Single: 71.3 mph at 38°Out: 64.3 mph at -44°Out: 84.4 mph at -2°Out: 93.3 mph at 22°Out: 82.5 mph at -9°Out: 97.5 mph at 26°Single: 108.4 mph at 12°Out: 58.6 mph at 7°Out: 71.8 mph at -37°Out: 92.1 mph at 35°Out: 89.0 mph at 42°Single: 104.7 mph at 14°Out: 50.6 mph at -25°Out: 94.0 mph at 49°Out: 70.0 mph at 81°Out: 80.9 mph at 73°Double: 64.9 mph at 46°Out: 96.5 mph at 20°Double: 100.3 mph at 10°Single: 70.1 mph at 40°Out: 84.4 mph at 34°Out: 104.0 mph at 9°Out: 101.0 mph at 7°Out: 93.2 mph at -18°Out: 61.8 mph at -41°Out: 86.4 mph at 2°Out: 64.9 mph at 1°Single: 94.2 mph at 12°Out: 88.5 mph at 1°Single: 88.5 mph at 10°Out: 93.2 mph at -19°Double: 94.4 mph at 15°Out: 66.3 mph at -16°Out: 55.1 mph at -63°Home run: 103.9 mph at 31°Out: 37.8 mph at -53°Out: 94.3 mph at 9°
23% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.3%58.0%+3.2
2+ total bases33.0%29.8%+3.2
Home run7.9%6.0%+2.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Andrés Giménez hits
Where they meet

.298 xwOBA for Andrés Giménez in the spots Rhett Lowder throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .304 (-6 points). His best spot against righties is down-left, and Rhett Lowder puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Rhett Lowder · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing4%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing6%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing6%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing10%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%17% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing17%25% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 46% per swing25%
All · 783 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters43% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters43%19% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Changeup · 193 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters18%16% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters16%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%
Fastball · 192 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%
Sinker · 179 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%54% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters54%
Slider · 173 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%11% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters33% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters33%36% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters36%
Curveball · 45 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Andrés Giménez · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .290 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 31 pitches seen.280xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .237 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 20 pitches seen.277xwOBA .214 shrunk (raw .160 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 31 pitches seen.214xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .213 on 11 PA) · league .342 · 33 pitches seen.280xwOBA .437 shrunk (raw .484 on 13 PA) · league .386 · 38 pitches seen.437xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .411 on 8 PA) · league .321 · 24 pitches seen.357xwOBA .415 shrunk (raw .506 on 14 PA) · league .308 · 30 pitches seen.415xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .266 on 10 PA) · league .351 · 29 pitches seen.312xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .330 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 27 pitches seen.312xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .240 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 97 pitches seen.303xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .365 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 26 pitches seen.287xwOBA .206 shrunk (raw .174 on 21 PA) · league .263 · 82 pitches seen.206xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .329 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 105 pitches seen.305
vs RHP · 573 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 29% of 24 swings · league 22%29%Whiff 0% of 18 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 20% of 25 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 17% of 30 swings · league 9%17%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 12% of 26 swings · league 14%12%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 13%13%Whiff 15% of 20 swings · league 17%15%Whiff 29% of 35 swings · league 28%29%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 24%8%Whiff 29% of 55 swings · league 32%29%Whiff 47% of 36 swings · league 49%47%
vs RHP · 573 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 77% of 31 pitches · league 62%77%Swings at 90% of 20 pitches · league 72%90%Swings at 81% of 31 pitches · league 66%81%Swings at 73% of 33 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 79% of 38 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 58% of 24 pitches · league 70%58%Swings at 87% of 30 pitches · league 65%87%Swings at 55% of 29 pitches · league 68%55%Swings at 74% of 27 pitches · league 60%74%Swings at 36% of 97 pitches · league 24%36%Swings at 46% of 26 pitches · league 34%46%Swings at 67% of 82 pitches · league 40%67%Swings at 34% of 105 pitches · league 32%34%
vs RHP · 573 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Andrés Giménez against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker29%93.0+17″ / +7″.342.35516.5%14.1%324About league average vs these
Slider27%85.2-2″ / -1″.301.31332.7%31.9%199About league average vs these
Fastball22%93.7+10″ / +14″.349.36419.7%16.6%627About league average vs these
Changeup20%86.5+17″ / +0″.291.30324.2%28.0%219About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Andrés Giménez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.333.455.556.436.33618.2%9.1%7.1%80.699.214.3%14.3%14.3%
Last 15 G1437.273.351.364.323.33613.5%8.1%19.7%85.0104.73.6%28.6%35.7%
Last 30 G2573.239.301.313.278.28516.4%5.5%20.4%85.0104.73.6%32.7%30.9%
90 days57153.246.307.326.285.30717.6%5.2%22.1%84.9106.13.5%27.4%33.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 113 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.167.167.167.150.31416.7%0.0%23.1%85.9108.40.0%40.0%60.0%
Last 15 G918.222.222.500.300.30211.1%0.0%16.7%79.4108.46.2%18.8%31.2%
Last 30 G1938.306.342.444.345.30813.2%2.6%19.8%77.7108.43.2%19.4%32.3%
90 days3970.254.286.358.284.25018.6%1.4%19.7%79.5108.41.9%20.4%29.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 54 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 20%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.267.353.400.335.32817.6%5.9%14.8%82.8108.48.3%25.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1555.255.309.412.315.32512.7%5.5%18.8%83.0108.44.5%25.0%34.1%
Last 30 G30111.262.315.359.301.29315.3%4.5%20.2%82.4108.43.5%27.9%31.4%
90 days62223.249.300.337.285.28917.9%4.0%21.4%83.1108.43.0%25.1%32.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 167 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 12%
Andrés Giménez · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating27Below average
Last 100 pitches16trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.288 / .293results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPSinker93.667.639.557Double
Sep 23RHPCurveball72.499.226.788Double
Sep 23RHPFastball94.794.952.008Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball85.971.338.489Single
Sep 21RHPCurveball84.364.3-44.168Out
Sep 21RHPFastball94.784.4-2.163Out
Sep 20LHPSlider85.293.322.205Out
Sep 20RHPFastball95.582.5-9.094Out
Sep 20LHPFastball93.497.526.439Out
Sep 20LHPFastball95.3108.412.963Single
Sep 19LHPFastball90.958.67.168Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup88.371.8-37.107Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200011
Sep 23424001
Sep 21311000
Sep 20511001
Sep 19300000
Sep 15300001
Sep 14411002
Sep 13412000
Sep 12423001
Sep 11400000

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.4%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%17.7%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.3%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.4%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.7%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%20.7%
Andrés Giménez bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Andrés Giménez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.0%41.3%
Whiff%19.4%21.6%
Contact%80.6%78.4%
Chase%49.4%39.4%
wOBA.245.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.6%21.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.283
K%18.2%
BB%4.9%
Whiff%12.1%
Barrel%2.4%
Hard-hit%19.4%
Avg EV83.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

153 PA
wOBA.288
xwOBA vs this mix.301against pitches like his
RV/100-0.75
Hard-hit%20.7%
K%18.2%
BB%4.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR6 days' rest
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 62.4%62%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 10.8%11%56 strikeouts: 5.6%6%67 strikeouts: 2.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.5%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Andrés Giménez: every projection we've made →