MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · TOR · batting 7Brandon Valenzuela
Switch hitterTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.289wOBA vs RHP.282xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Brandon Valenzuela: wOBA .342 vs league .348 (about even).Sinker 30%Slider: 27% usage, 85.4 mph, -1.8″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Brandon Valenzuela: wOBA .311 vs league .317 (about even).Slider 27%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.9 mph, +17.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Brandon Valenzuela: wOBA .286 vs league .292 (about even).Changeup 20%Fastball: 18% usage, 94.2 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +13.1″ rise. Brandon Valenzuela: wOBA .355 vs league .361 (about even).Fastball 18%Curveball: 5% usage, 81.0 mph, -11.3″ arm side, -12.8″ rise. Brandon Valenzuela: wOBA .296 vs league .302 (about even).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brandon Valenzuela's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brandon Valenzuela's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 70.7 mph at 57°Out: 100.0 mph at -26°Single: 105.3 mph at -30°Single: 102.1 mph at -3°Out: 90.9 mph at 38°Single: 70.0 mph at 18°Out: 105.4 mph at -2°Out: 96.6 mph at -1°Single: 82.7 mph at 13°Out: 75.9 mph at 11°Out: 94.4 mph at -16°Single: 98.8 mph at 8°Out: 87.8 mph at 31°Out: 67.1 mph at 4°Out: 84.7 mph at -17°Out: 107.2 mph at 3°Out: 84.3 mph at 69°Out: 77.3 mph at -51°Out: 105.6 mph at 5°Out: 58.3 mph at 21°Out: 86.6 mph at 35°Out: 100.1 mph at 1°Out: 57.7 mph at -58°Out: 99.3 mph at -20°Out: 90.5 mph at 26°Double: 92.9 mph at 22°Double: 101.9 mph at 21°Single: 103.5 mph at 5°Out: 79.9 mph at 29°Out: 98.4 mph at 25°Out: 94.8 mph at 3°Out: 103.0 mph at 6°Out: 87.6 mph at 62°Out: 88.9 mph at -13°Out: 64.0 mph at -40°Double: 92.2 mph at 25°Out: 102.2 mph at -8°Out: 69.0 mph at 62°Single: 71.6 mph at 23°Single: 108.0 mph at 6°
40% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.5%53.7%+2.8
2+ total bases30.9%28.4%+2.5
Home run8.9%7.5%+1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Brandon Valenzuela against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%93.7+17″ / +7″.342.34813.5%12.4%14About league average vs these
Slider27%85.4-2″ / -1″.311.31738.6%31.4%8About league average vs these
Changeup20%86.9+17″ / +1″.286.29231.7%26.7%7Little history vs this shape
Fastball18%94.2+10″ / +13″.355.36116.5%15.4%20About league average vs these
Curveball5%81.0-11″ / -13″.296.30233.4%26.6%6Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brandon Valenzuela · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.375.500.375.410.34810.0%20.0%31.2%91.7102.10.0%57.1%28.6%
Last 15 G1435.233.343.333.310.27217.1%14.3%27.0%87.0105.60.0%37.5%33.3%
Last 30 G2669.226.304.323.285.27427.5%10.1%28.1%85.7108.04.7%37.2%34.9%
90 days2669.226.304.323.285.27427.5%10.1%28.1%85.7108.04.7%37.2%34.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 26%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.222.222.222.300.17333.3%0.0%33.3%89.8105.40.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1118.125.222.125.278.30616.7%5.6%18.6%93.9107.20.0%46.2%30.8%
Last 30 G2031.107.194.107.213.25322.6%6.5%21.1%87.5107.20.0%38.1%23.8%
90 days2031.107.194.107.213.25322.6%6.5%21.1%87.5107.20.0%38.1%23.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 14%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.294.368.294.358.26521.1%10.5%32.4%90.8105.40.0%46.2%38.5%
Last 15 G1553.196.302.261.299.28317.0%11.3%23.6%89.4107.20.0%40.5%32.4%
Last 30 G28100.189.270.256.262.26826.0%9.0%25.5%86.3108.03.1%37.5%31.2%
90 days28100.189.270.256.262.26826.0%9.0%25.5%86.3108.03.1%37.5%31.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 64 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 22%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 11%
Brandon Valenzuela · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating20Poor
Last 100 pitches29trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.256 / .282running 26 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPCurveball70.570.757.041Out
Sep 23RHPSinker92.9100.0-26.077Out
Sep 23LHPSinker95.2105.3-30.075Single
Sep 23RHPSlider88.7102.1-3.346Single
Sep 20RHPFastball95.590.938.036Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup87.770.018.653Single
Sep 20LHPFastball94.2105.4-2.403Force out
Sep 16RHPSlider86.296.6-1.309Out
Sep 16RHPFastball94.182.713.691Single
Sep 16LHPFastball92.975.911.293Fielder's choice
Sep 13LHPFastball92.994.4-16.092Out
Sep 13RHPSplitter85.598.88.580Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23422000
Sep 20411010
Sep 16411010
Sep 13411002
Sep 9300002
Sep 6300000
Sep 3500021
Aug 28400010
Aug 25200000
Aug 21412001

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.0%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%16.9%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.0%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.6%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.1%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%19.3%
Brandon Valenzuela bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Brandon Valenzuela with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.2%41.0%
Whiff%23.8%21.3%
Contact%76.2%78.7%
Chase%39.2%39.6%
wOBA.238.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.2%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.299
K%24.2%
BB%8.4%
Whiff%11.5%
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%25.2%
Avg EV87.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

69 PA
wOBA.289
xwOBA vs this mix.282against pitches like his
RV/100-0.91
Hard-hit%23.8%
K%26.5%
BB%8.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.3%59%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.4%6%67 strikeouts: 2.9%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Sweeper0%9585.3100.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brandon Valenzuela: every projection we've made →