MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TOR · batting 1Brett Bateman
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.392wOBA vs RHP.328xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.1projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 29% usage, 93.0 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Brett Bateman: wOBA .370 vs league .355 (hitter's edge).Sinker 29%Slider: 27% usage, 85.2 mph, -2.4″ arm side, -1.1″ rise. Brett Bateman: wOBA .327 vs league .313 (about even).Slider 27%Fastball: 22% usage, 93.7 mph, +10.3″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Brett Bateman: wOBA .378 vs league .364 (about even).Fastball 22%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.5 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Brett Bateman: wOBA .317 vs league .303 (about even).Changeup 20%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brett Bateman's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brett Bateman's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 79.1 mph at 38°Out: 87.9 mph at 18°Out: 84.9 mph at -27°Double: 86.1 mph at 11°Out: 81.7 mph at -57°Single: 99.7 mph at 6°Out: 85.4 mph at -21°Out: 79.8 mph at 52°Out: 98.0 mph at -2°Out: 56.0 mph at -27°Out: 79.4 mph at -25°Out: 91.5 mph at -11°Single: 95.1 mph at -6°Single: 89.7 mph at 13°Single: 98.6 mph at -3°Single: 94.4 mph at 10°Out: 86.2 mph at 38°Out: 44.7 mph at -42°Out: 81.4 mph at 8°Out: 81.2 mph at -6°Single: 83.2 mph at -19°Out: 59.9 mph at 34°Out: 85.1 mph at -23°Home run: 102.7 mph at 30°Out: 75.9 mph at 42°Single: 62.6 mph at 5°Single: 86.7 mph at 3°Home run: 100.2 mph at 26°Out: 96.5 mph at -28°Out: 100.0 mph at 10°Double: 90.8 mph at 18°Out: 97.2 mph at -6°Out: 62.4 mph at -18°Out: 81.7 mph at -29°Out: 101.4 mph at 18°Single: 94.8 mph at 14°Out: 95.4 mph at 25°Out: 63.1 mph at 41°Out: 82.9 mph at -25°Single: 73.7 mph at 21°
28% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.1%62.6%+2.5
2+ total bases34.4%33.2%+1.2
Home run6.1%7.8%-1.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
+0.3
Home run
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brett Bateman hits
Where they meet

.306 xwOBA for Brett Bateman in the spots Rhett Lowder throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .304 (+2 points). His best spot against righties is middle-right, and Rhett Lowder puts 4% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Rhett Lowder · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing4%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing6%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing6%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing10%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%17% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing17%25% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 46% per swing25%
All · 783 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters43% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters43%19% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Changeup · 193 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters18%16% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters16%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%
Fastball · 192 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%
Sinker · 179 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%54% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters54%
Slider · 173 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%11% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters33% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters33%36% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters36%
Curveball · 45 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Brett Bateman · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .146 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 26 pitches seen.248xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .043 on 3 PA) · league .307 · 21 pitches seen.254xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .555 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.321xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .304 on 12 PA) · league .342 · 34 pitches seen.323xwOBA .412 shrunk (raw .440 on 11 PA) · league .386 · 36 pitches seen.412xwOBA .431 shrunk (raw .550 on 11 PA) · league .321 · 30 pitches seen.431xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .305 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 15 pitches seen.307xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .241 on 12 PA) · league .351 · 25 pitches seen.296xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .194 on 7 PA) · league .292 · 20 pitches seen.256xwOBA .406 shrunk (raw .449 on 8 PA) · league .377 · 71 pitches seen.406xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .467 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 31 pitches seen.351xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .218 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 56 pitches seen.246xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .275 on 19 PA) · league .274 · 83 pitches seen.275
vs RHP · 467 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 22%20%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 20%15%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 8% of 25 swings · league 10%8%Whiff 0% of 19 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 4% of 23 swings · league 11%4%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 13%6%Whiff 29% of 14 swings · league 17%29%Whiff 30% of 10 swings · league 28%30%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 24%14%Whiff 17% of 18 swings · league 32%17%Whiff 21% of 34 swings · league 49%21%
vs RHP · 467 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 39% of 26 pitches · league 62%39%Swings at 62% of 21 pitches · league 72%62%Swings at 42% of 19 pitches · league 66%42%Swings at 74% of 34 pitches · league 70%74%Swings at 53% of 36 pitches · league 76%53%Swings at 77% of 30 pitches · league 70%77%Swings at 33% of 15 pitches · league 65%33%Swings at 68% of 25 pitches · league 68%68%Swings at 70% of 20 pitches · league 60%70%Swings at 14% of 71 pitches · league 24%14%Swings at 23% of 31 pitches · league 34%23%Swings at 32% of 56 pitches · league 40%32%Swings at 41% of 83 pitches · league 32%41%
vs RHP · 467 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Brett Bateman against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker29%93.0+17″ / +7″.370.3558.6%14.1%23About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider27%85.2-2″ / -1″.327.31320.4%31.9%11About league average vs these
Fastball22%93.7+10″ / +14″.378.36410.4%16.6%28About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup20%86.5+17″ / +0″.317.30322.3%28.0%18About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brett Bateman · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.111.333.111.273.3780.0%25.0%13.3%83.499.70.0%22.2%11.1%
Last 15 G1541.382.488.588.491.41017.1%14.6%10.0%86.7102.77.7%23.1%42.3%
Last 30 G2989.373.460.493.438.35519.1%12.4%13.0%83.3102.73.4%18.6%32.2%
90 days37113.344.432.448.406.34219.5%12.4%12.8%83.5102.72.7%20.0%36.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 63%Line drive 25%Fly ball 11%Pop-up 1%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.250.250.500.312.21650.0%0.0%22.2%83.986.10.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1121.150.190.200.179.25519.0%4.8%10.8%82.3100.00.0%37.5%25.0%
Last 30 G2042.243.310.324.285.27719.0%7.1%15.7%83.1100.00.0%26.7%36.7%
90 days2761.268.311.339.295.25319.7%4.9%16.8%78.7100.00.0%20.5%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 21%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.154.312.231.283.33512.5%18.8%15.4%83.599.70.0%18.2%18.2%
Last 15 G1562.296.387.444.382.35617.7%11.3%10.2%85.0102.74.8%28.6%35.7%
Last 30 G30131.330.411.438.387.32919.1%10.7%13.9%83.2102.72.2%21.3%33.7%
90 days39174.316.390.408.366.31119.5%9.8%14.1%81.7102.71.7%20.2%36.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 119 balls in play
Ground 60%Line drive 24%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 2%
Brett Bateman · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating37Below average
Last 100 pitches43trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.357 / .302running 56 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball94.779.138.030Out
Sep 21RHPFastball96.287.918.741Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup89.784.9-27.060Out
Sep 20LHPSinker91.786.111.593Double
Sep 19LHPSinker90.181.7-57.271Out
Sep 19RHPSplitter86.899.76.598Single
Sep 19RHPSplitter89.485.4-21.073Out
Sep 19RHPFastball92.979.852.049Out
Sep 18RHPSinker93.498.0-2.390Out
Sep 18RHPChangeup79.656.0-27.068Out
Sep 18RHPSinker94.979.4-25.054Out
Sep 16LHPFastball94.291.5-11.192Force out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25100000
Sep 21200010
Sep 20512021
Sep 19411000
Sep 18400001
Sep 16522001
Sep 15422001
Sep 14511001
Sep 13500021
Sep 12514112

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.4%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%17.7%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.3%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.4%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.7%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%20.7%
Brett Bateman bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brett Bateman with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.0%41.3%
Whiff%19.0%21.6%
Contact%81.0%78.4%
Chase%36.8%39.4%
wOBA.263.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.3%21.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.341
K%20.5%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%7.0%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%17.7%
Avg EV83.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

113 PA
wOBA.392
xwOBA vs this mix.328against pitches like his
RV/1000.85
Hard-hit%14.6%
K%19.8%
BB%9.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR6 days' rest
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 62.4%62%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 10.8%11%56 strikeouts: 5.6%6%67 strikeouts: 2.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.5%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brett Bateman: every projection we've made →