MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · TOR · batting 4George Springer
Bats rightTalent grade BContactNormal
.394wOBA vs RHP.327xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. George Springer: wOBA .373 vs league .347 (hitter's edge).Sinker 30%Slider: 27% usage, 85.4 mph, -1.8″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. George Springer: wOBA .314 vs league .288 (hitter's edge).Slider 27%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.9 mph, +17.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. George Springer: wOBA .331 vs league .305 (hitter's edge).Changeup 20%Fastball: 18% usage, 94.2 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +13.1″ rise. George Springer: wOBA .384 vs league .358 (hitter's edge).Fastball 18%Curveball: 5% usage, 81.0 mph, -11.3″ arm side, -12.8″ rise. George Springer: wOBA .312 vs league .286 (hitter's edge).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is George Springer's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

George Springer's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 106.8 mph at 15°Out: 107.3 mph at 16°Out: 92.3 mph at -1°Out: 73.9 mph at -52°Single: 83.7 mph at 14°Single: 94.6 mph at 22°Out: 96.8 mph at 23°Out: 92.7 mph at 43°Out: 71.2 mph at -5°Out: 78.7 mph at -15°Out: 49.1 mph at -20°Out: 92.5 mph at 41°Out: 75.4 mph at 10°Single: 106.9 mph at 13°Out: 93.3 mph at -10°Out: 69.2 mph at 4°Single: 93.6 mph at 56°Out: 90.5 mph at -19°Out: 76.9 mph at 56°Single: 103.5 mph at 0°Home run: 99.7 mph at 34°Out: 79.2 mph at 53°Out: 83.1 mph at 12°Double: 101.2 mph at 17°Single: 105.2 mph at 5°Out: 72.8 mph at 54°Out: 96.4 mph at -18°Single: 59.0 mph at -50°Out: 95.1 mph at 24°Out: 102.7 mph at 4°Single: 111.3 mph at 8°Single: 108.5 mph at 0°Out: 76.0 mph at -19°Out: 104.1 mph at 32°Out: 68.6 mph at -20°Out: 91.2 mph at 62°Out: 76.2 mph at 50°Single: 39.4 mph at -40°Out: 97.7 mph at -19°Out: 89.7 mph at 39°
38% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit70.0%65.7%+4.3
2+ total bases43.6%39.2%+4.4
Home run15.6%13.2%+2.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
+1.6
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
+1.8
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

George Springer against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%93.7+17″ / +7″.373.3479.7%10.9%45About league average vs these
Slider27%85.4-2″ / -1″.314.28830.8%34.6%13About league average vs these
Changeup20%86.9+17″ / +1″.331.30527.3%25.3%23About league average vs these
Fastball18%94.2+10″ / +13″.384.35813.9%15.8%52About league average vs these
Curveball5%81.0-11″ / -13″.312.28620.7%23.7%8About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
George Springer · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G415.200.200.200.180.22026.7%0.0%28.6%85.7107.30.0%18.2%36.4%
Last 15 G1343.289.372.316.341.28614.0%11.6%21.5%87.7111.30.0%37.5%25.0%
Last 30 G2677.400.455.529.444.33015.6%9.1%23.3%87.7111.33.4%32.8%34.5%
90 days56164.338.402.507.409.33216.5%9.8%21.6%89.4111.35.0%39.7%33.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 121 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 23%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.17450.0%0.0%0.0%96.896.80.0%100.0%100.0%
Last 15 G814.143.143.357.207.28928.6%0.0%23.1%88.9106.910.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 30 G1735.176.200.412.283.27222.9%2.9%25.4%92.3108.47.7%46.2%34.6%
90 days3679.187.215.333.247.24319.0%3.8%19.6%88.1108.43.3%37.7%24.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 15%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.176.176.176.159.21429.4%0.0%24.2%86.6107.30.0%25.0%41.7%
Last 15 G1557.250.316.327.308.28717.5%8.8%21.9%88.0111.32.4%38.1%28.6%
Last 30 G30112.327.375.490.394.31217.9%7.1%23.9%89.1111.34.8%36.9%34.5%
90 days62243.287.342.448.356.30317.3%7.8%21.0%89.0111.34.4%39.0%30.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 182 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 20%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 8%
George Springer · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating54Average
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.355 / .321running 34 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPCutter89.0106.815.688Single
Sep 23RHPSinker92.8107.316.737Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball86.992.3-1.288Out
Sep 21RHPCutter89.873.9-52.213Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball84.483.714.855Single
Sep 21RHPSinker94.894.622.243Single
Sep 19LHPFastball91.396.823.349Out
Sep 19RHPSinker95.292.743.020Out
Sep 19RHPFastball87.871.2-5.058Out
Sep 18RHPSinker94.478.7-15.043Out
Sep 18RHPSinker94.349.1-20.130Out
Sep 18RHPSinker89.792.541.022Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23411001
Sep 21422001
Sep 20100001
Sep 19400001
Sep 18400001
Sep 16411001
Sep 15411010
Sep 14511030
Sep 13526101
Sep 12522001

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.0%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%16.9%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.0%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.6%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.1%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%19.3%
George Springer bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
George Springer with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.9%42.4%
Whiff%19.8%22.2%
Contact%80.2%77.8%
Chase%35.4%39.8%
wOBA.277.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.9%21.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.376
K%17.7%
BB%8.6%
Whiff%10.1%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%29.3%
Avg EV89.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

164 PA
wOBA.394
xwOBA vs this mix.327against pitches like his
RV/1001.64
Hard-hit%28.9%
K%17.2%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.3%59%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.4%6%67 strikeouts: 2.9%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Sweeper0%9585.3100.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.George Springer: every projection we've made →