MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · CIN · batting 7Héctor Rodríguez
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.341wOBA vs RHP.291xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · TORTrey Yesavage
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
5.2projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Trey Yesavage's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 49% usage, 94.2 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Héctor Rodríguez: wOBA .356 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 49%Splitter: 28% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Héctor Rodríguez: wOBA .280 vs league .276 (about even).Splitter 28%Slider: 24% usage, 86.9 mph, +2.9″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Héctor Rodríguez: wOBA .360 vs league .355 (about even).Slider 24%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Héctor Rodríguez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Héctor Rodríguez's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 80.2 mph at 66°Double: 107.8 mph at 18°Home run: 108.8 mph at 27°Out: 100.1 mph at -1°Out: 85.8 mph at 27°Out: 74.6 mph at 7°Out: 87.9 mph at 39°Out: 89.4 mph at -23°Out: 88.8 mph at 61°Triple: 98.7 mph at 18°Out: 64.7 mph at 11°Out: 75.4 mph at -11°Out: 93.3 mph at 38°Out: 97.4 mph at 28°Out: 90.4 mph at 68°Out: 73.8 mph at 9°Out: 77.4 mph at -47°Out: 102.5 mph at 43°Out: 97.1 mph at 34°Out: 97.7 mph at 24°Out: 83.4 mph at 37°Single: 77.5 mph at -45°Out: 78.8 mph at 11°Out: 103.6 mph at -22°Out: 79.3 mph at 44°Out: 72.1 mph at 35°Out: 78.7 mph at -5°Out: 74.3 mph at -34°Out: 100.1 mph at -10°Out: 86.4 mph at -15°Single: 83.1 mph at 14°Out: 107.5 mph at 2°Single: 110.1 mph at -5°Single: 95.9 mph at -10°Out: 82.4 mph at 10°Single: 89.6 mph at 7°Single: 86.6 mph at 4°Single: 70.5 mph at 16°Single: 65.1 mph at 27°Home run: 94.6 mph at 36°
33% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.4%55.3%-0.9
2+ total bases31.0%31.1%-0.1
Home run11.6%10.8%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Héctor Rodríguez against each of Trey Yesavage's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball49%94.2+5″ / +19″.356.35118.3%16.6%19About league average vs these
Splitter28%83.0+11″ / +7″.280.27633.1%29.8%11About league average vs these
Slider24%86.9+3″ / +4″.360.35526.1%24.1%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Héctor Rodríguez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.214.214.643.346.28935.7%0.0%31.2%92.6108.822.2%44.4%44.4%
Last 15 G1132.188.188.375.236.28025.0%0.0%23.3%86.6108.88.3%29.2%37.5%
Last 30 G2675.286.333.571.395.31922.7%5.3%25.5%87.1115.29.4%30.2%32.1%
90 days3499.242.303.473.349.29223.2%7.1%25.4%87.7115.27.4%32.4%30.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 15%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.00850.0%0.0%50.0%88.888.80.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G922.227.227.227.205.17131.8%0.0%25.0%89.2110.10.0%40.0%26.7%
Last 30 G1839.179.179.256.190.16538.5%0.0%32.1%88.1110.14.2%41.7%25.0%
90 days2041.171.171.244.180.17536.6%0.0%31.8%87.4110.13.8%38.5%26.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 26 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 15%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.188.188.562.303.25437.5%0.0%34.2%92.2108.820.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1554.204.204.315.223.23527.8%0.0%24.0%87.6110.15.1%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G30114.248.281.459.325.26628.1%3.5%27.7%87.4115.27.8%33.8%29.9%
90 days38140.220.264.402.300.25827.1%5.0%27.3%87.7115.26.4%34.0%29.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 94 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 15%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 7%
Héctor Rodríguez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating8Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.298 / .259running 38 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSplitter87.480.266.006Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter87.8107.818.815Double
Sep 24RHPCurveball78.7108.8272.030Home run
Sep 22RHPChangeup84.0100.1-1.361Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball79.185.827.079Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup94.074.67.273Force out
Sep 18RHPChangeup87.087.939.005Out
Sep 18RHPCutter91.989.4-23.080Force out
Sep 17LHPFastball97.488.861.016Out
Sep 17RHPFastball95.698.718.393Triple
Sep 15RHPCutter91.764.711.176Out
Sep 15RHPCutter92.075.4-11.056Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24426101
Sep 22400002
Sep 20100000
Sep 18400002
Sep 17313001
Sep 15300000
Sep 14300001
Sep 13400001
Sep 12411000
Sep 11400000

Two strikes

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPwith two strikes
Trey Yesavage with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%44%14.8%17.4%18.0%
Splitter28%35%28.9%17.6%19.0%
Slider24%21%33.3%22.5%21.0%
Héctor Rodríguez bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Héctor Rodríguez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.9%41.0%
Whiff%23.1%21.3%
Contact%76.9%78.7%
Chase%44.6%39.6%
wOBA.249.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.8%21.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.308
K%25.5%
BB%6.4%
Whiff%13.5%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%24.2%
Avg EV88.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

99 PA
wOBA.341
xwOBA vs this mix.291against pitches like his
RV/1000.35
Hard-hit%22.7%
K%23.6%
BB%5.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Trey YesavageRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 18.4 batters over 4.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 24.1%24%≤34 strikeouts: 16.7%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 15.1%15%67 strikeouts: 11.1%11%78 strikeouts: 7.3%7%89+ strikeouts: 8.3%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 58%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.5%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff92
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball48%8494.310.1%
Splitter28%10483.016.3%
Slider24%9486.917.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Jul 299715%10%12%.214
Jul 249350%18%22%.411
Jul 199538%20%17%.306

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Héctor Rodríguez: every projection we've made →